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Varuna deforms the meta pretty intensely

Discussion in 'Ariadna' started by Hecaton, Sep 3, 2019.

  1. Alphz

    Alphz Kuang Shi Vet. Retired.

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    Request to change thread title to: "Kamau in the hands of highly competent players on boards which heavily favour long range firepower slightly deforms the meta and that might just be OK"
     
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  2. A Mão Esquerda

    A Mão Esquerda Deputy Hexahedron Officer

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    Stop making sense.
     
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  3. Remnar

    Remnar Well-Known Member

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    So, the thread is about consternation that USAriadna doesn't have an easy, high percentage, order efficient way to deal with a sectorial's cornerstone piece, WITH perfect support without having to list plan?
     
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  4. A Mão Esquerda

    A Mão Esquerda Deputy Hexahedron Officer

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    In a nutshell, yes.
     
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  5. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    It doesn't need to be all of those things. A high percentage option that was order-inefficient should be fine too.
     
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  6. McKaptain

    McKaptain Well-Known Member

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    Maybe you should just refuse to play anyone that isn’t JSA.
     
  7. SpectralOwl

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    About the terrain-reliant options, the rules explicitly state that both players have to agree on the table's terrain and layout before the game. In casual play, you can ask a Varuna player to chuck a few boxes between DZs if there are no approaches. In a tournament you're out of luck but most TOs are pretty good at arranging tables so you're most likely to get an open table when they run out of terrain, which means the Kamau and her hype men are probably going to be clustered around one box for cover. Mass over-Infiltrated Grunt HFTs seem perfect for that situation.
     
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  8. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    Why?
     
  9. Alphz

    Alphz Kuang Shi Vet. Retired.

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    Whats sufficiently high percentage to satisfy you?
     
  10. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    A chance of success at least 50% higher than the chance of the Kamau succeeding. Without it being something silly low, like spec fire.
     
  11. raf999

    raf999 Member

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    You just want too much. 50% higher than the Kamau succeeding? Against the best ARO piece in the game? No man, it doesn't work that way.

    fully linked BS13 minuteman with AP HMG is at 43% of success VS 33% of the Kamau. Just roll those dices.
     
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  12. Gunmage

    Gunmage Well-Known Member

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    I would like to record for posterity that Kriza Borac HMG is, in fact, an order-inefficient option to deal with a linked Fusilier sniper in cover.
     
  13. Sedral

    Sedral Invincible Officier

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    As was proposed by @Triumph on the first page, as the first comment: coordinated MMLX sniper grunt. It's not only your best option in sectorial, it's probably one of the best option in the whole damn game. 4 shots hitting on 17, damage 15 and ignoring cover for both bs and armor. It's just nuts, there are very few things you can't kill with that, even thougher ARO pieces like the father knight ML or a haidao sniper are at risk here.

    The only tricky part is to get them all in line of sight, since it's a long skill you can't just move-shot so they have to be deployed already in position, and it might require a great deal of anticipation and some terrain reading skill. Another way is to link them with a minuteman HMG, use the first move to move everyone in sight, and wether the minuteman drops the kamau or not you can have a go at it with the snipers.
     
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  14. Barrogh

    Barrogh Well-Known Member

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    I'm fairly sure that when @Hecaton said "50% higher" he did not mean "60% vs 10%", but rather "45% vs 30%" or something. At least I've read it that way because 60% vs 10% are usually odds you get against random bodyblocks whose job is to die and stall you by 0,5 orders rather than a dedicated ARO piece that is supposed to waste more than a single order. Or odds you get with some elite gunner in a faction of more individually strong pieces than Ariadna.

    Buuut it appears that linked Minuteman HMG is damn close to those odds, although I didn't check.
     
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  15. Brother Smoke

    Brother Smoke Bureau Trimurti Representative

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    Honestly this is starting to feel like the goalposts are on wheels
     
  16. McKaptain

    McKaptain Well-Known Member

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    At this point there are eight pages of answers and solutions.
     
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  17. TheRedZealot

    TheRedZealot Well-Known Member
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    MMX is definitely a good way to deal with Kamau Sniper but that got me thinking about how good the odds are of killing it just with regular Coordinated order shots. Given that I like fussing through math problems I decided to run the numbers.

    I'm Assuming you can fit:

    3 Grunt snipers into most lists comfortably.

    Active Player
    7.06% USAriadna Grunts inflicts 1 or more wounds on Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) (Unconscious)

    Failures
    33.81% Neither player succeeds
    Reactive Player
    59.13% Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) inflicts 1 or more wounds on USAriadna Grunts (Unconscious)
    14.62% Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) inflicts 2 or more wounds on USAriadna Grunts (Dead)

    An individual face to face is actually a pretty bad chance. BUT each individual Grunt still has a solid chance of getting that shot in.

    Active Player

    24.25% USAriadna Grunts inflicts 1 or more wounds on Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) (Unconscious)

    Which with just 3 Grunt Snipers, not including the potential Minuteman AP HMG or what have you that could buddy up for the party (hell even a basic Grunt Rifle adds %) you're at 46.67% for the Kamau to be at least unconscious after the first coordinated order.

    Once that first set of orders has been expended. Your percentages change since you can swap into MMX mode.

    Active Player
    26.00% USAriadna Grunts inflicts 1 or more wounds on Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) (Unconscious)

    Failures
    25.32% Neither player succeeds
    Reactive Player
    48.68% Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) inflicts 1 or more wounds on USAriadna Grunts (Unconscious)
    24.48% Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) inflicts 2 or more wounds on USAriadna Grunts (Dead)

    Active Player
    61.00% USAriadna Grunts inflicts 1 or more wounds on Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) (Unconscious)

    When we factor in 33.81% of the time the First Grunt is still up and running. After the percentages are added for the second Coordinated Order possibilities (either 2 Grunts with MMX. Or 3 Grunts with MMX). I get an 83.2% Chance to have at least knocked the Kamau unconscious for the expenditure of at most 2 Command Tokens, 2 Orders and 2 Grunt Snipers.

    So there you have it. 3 Grunt Snipers trying to MMX a Kamau MSR in a link can do so very effectively even if they dont have LOS from deployment.


    7.06% Sniper A to win F2F #1

    22.54% for Sniper B to knock Kamau MSR on lost F2F. (29.60% Total)
    17.07% for Sniper C to knock Kamau MSR on lost F2F + Miss from Sniper B. (46.67% Total)


    --- Shot 2A ---

    33.81% For Snipers A-C to All survive.

    8.79% For MMX Sniper A to Survive to win F2F #2A. (55.46% Total)
    15.26% For Sniper B to Knock Kamau MSR after Miss. (70.72% Total)
    5.95% For Sniper C To Knock Kamau MSR after Miss x2. (76.67% Total)

    4.69% For MMX Sniper A to Survive to win F2F #2A. (51.36% Total)
    10% For Sniper B to Knock Kamau MSR after Miss. (61.36% Total)
    7.97% For Sniper C To Knock Kamau MSR after Miss x2. (69.32% Total)

    --- Shot 2B ---

    19.52 Down to 2 Grunts & Kamau Up.

    5.07% For MMX Sniper B to win F2F #2B. (74.39% Total)
    8.81% for MMX Sniper C to Knock Kamau MSR (83.2% Total)
     
  18. Alphz

    Alphz Kuang Shi Vet. Retired.

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    Damn, if you're the kind of player that likes to clear AROs thats some damn fine odds
     
  19. RobertShepherd

    RobertShepherd Brisk antipodean

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    That's some good content @TheRedZealot

    Something I especially like about it is that it isn't just a niche solve for the Kamau. You've built a piece of tech that can be used against any static ARO element. It's an adaptation to a percieved threat using existing pieces, but ends up producing a stronger toolset overall.
     
  20. TheRedZealot

    TheRedZealot Well-Known Member
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    Yeah the affordability of grunts and their usefulness in defensive links is really good. Understanding the numbers help to give them other aggressive table top options.
     
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