So we get a choice of about three options really. Aliens infiltrated one guy who... magically talked every faction in the setting into holding the idiot ball for him? And then they magically infected every multi-planet organization in the setting with idiot ball disease. Cool story bro. But ultimately meaningless to the narrative. And certainly meaningless to making it less... well... bad. Aliens infiltrated to a ridiculous degree. At that point they might as well have just declared peace with themselves since they now lead humanity. Or at least messed up the defenses of a planet or three. From here out the setting is basically a reality TV prank show "You've Been Shavasted!" until the ratings drop low enough and the CA finally clean up the studio audience. Aliens infiltrated only to the barest minimum to be an actual meaningful aspect in the narrative. The like one infiltrator in each major multi-planetary organization or population required just happened to be in the right place at the right time. To such a degree as to reveal that their super power isn't shape changing. Its wild blind luck. I'm not liking any of those.
Four: Aliens analyzed available intelligence on HS affairs, identified tensions and possibility to increase them, infiltrated both YJ and JSA with enough agents to influence the situation and with few contingency plans in place, and subtly influenced the existing conflict to blow up in a worse way possible, while other factions acted in their own self-interest, just as predicted.
Identified what? Precisely how little influence would you dare pretend results reliably in any way shape or form in the events of Uprising? "Ah see, all we had to do was kick this one japanese guy's dog and boom bam next thing you know we leak a photo of that dog on face book and BAM mass murder, succession and every human faction in the setting stabbing themselves in the back for us!" Either alien infiltrators are miraculously lucky or they are that good/numerous that they can achieve anything. If you want to argue the "but it's like a butterfly flapping it's wings and starting a hurricane!" angle like you are doing then either the butterfly has no control or agency or it is basically the settings new omnipotent god. Your argument that this can be done, and easily no less, with just a few key guys is comical. I don't care if you dress it up in "analysis" and "cunning plans" and a complete and deeply alarming misunderstanding of international self interest. IF those excuses hold well enough to justify these events then the alien infiltrators might as well be capable of doing ANYTHING to the human sphere, including defeating it outright.
I don't know if I really like it as an explanation, but in your third option you don't even need one infiltrator per planet or anything like that. The ISS, like everything else, is a bureaucracy and fully networked, even if its a protected private network rather than on Maya. If you'll grant me the hypothetical Shasvastii Agent #2, she's not a Hsien or Crane or Bao, she has some boring-sounding job in Imperial Service HR, or the Scheduling Department, or IT. She's got network access. She downloads or memorizes the scheduling and assignments across the Imperial Service, and passes them on to her fellow Shas the Kuge agent. He disseminates that info to the Kempeitai and Tatenokai, and they spend months or years prepping for Uprising, planning out how to neutralize each agent, knowing when patrols are elsewhere and security system update cycles have temporarily shut down sensors they can plant their bombs. I still think the complete across-board failure of the ISS is bad-and-Gutier-should-feel-bad, there absolutely needed to be actual Japanese failures there to avoid the Imperial Service being tarred thoroughly with incompetence, but its an explanation that mitigates. The ISS deal with organized crime and counterinsurgency, they don't deal with shapshifting alien infiltrators armed with voodootech, if they are to be largely outmaneuvered (and Uprising absolutely demands that they are) having it be because the threat is something new and strange they've never dealt with is far superior to the surface interpretation where the threat is exactly what they exist to deal with specifically and they still mucked it up. 'Shasvastii agent', to explain the Kuge conspiracy working the way it did, I find makes the whole thing make a lot more sense. 'Shasvastii agent' to explain ISS failures on day 1 of the Uprising, I think could provide a mitigating factor, if not a complete correction in of itself. After that, I think the relevance of CA agents breaks down for explaining the inexplicable.
"We conduct a series of terrorist attacks, destroying an IS precinct, detonating a bomb in a transit hub, killing a Bao patrol (with additional civilian casualties), and releasing a statement as Tatenokai. IS retaliates with curfews, arrests, Japanese quarters sweeps, making the civilians more resentful and real Tatenokai further fanning the flames". "We make sure that families of a few high-ranking agents and officers in charge of JSA units suffer in the attacks, making it personal for them". "We make a few trusted and respected Japanese (activists, priests, politicians, intellectuals, teachers, some of the Kuge, etc.) disappear during real IS sweeps. Some are never found, some turn up later as bodies with clear signs of torture". "We murder one or two Chinese officers that treat their JSA subordinates decently, and make it look like Kempeitai work. This makes other officers paranoid and distrustful, as apparently you can't trust Japanese soldiers even when you're treating them right". "We influence the paperwork to make sure that few agents with especially nasty streak are assigned to units that interact with the Japanese". "We provide Kuge with analysis saying that open conflict is inevitable and it's better to act first - and fast - then to allow IS to contain the situation". "We make sure that few raports about suspicious meetings. possibiliity of weapon stockpiling or growing unrest in JSA units get misfiled and never reach their intended recipients". I can go on. And all this requires only a handful of operatives - highly intelligent, skillful, and careful, yes - but operating on skill, not on luck. Not really, as they'd require an existing tensions to exploit. The YJ/Japanese conflict was brewing for a long time. Trying to exploit some internal PanO conflict would be much more difficult, as internal pressure isn't particularly high. Trying to create some inter-factional conflict might work; for example attack on Tunguska disguised as an ALEPH strike and affecting some corporate PanO assets or YJ black funds might work, though ALEPH's total awareness of what its troops are up to would make it difficult to fool it. And regardless, it's obvious we won't agree on this, the difference of perspective and opinion what is or isn't plausible is too big. But how about we keep this disagreement civil? It'd be nice if this thread wouldn't get locked down.
We already have that. There's freaking aliens invading Paradiso and the Human Sphere is busy backstabbing each other to get ahead instead of locking onto the Combined Army and curbstomping them. Mind. Blown. It's too bad those operatives weren't identified in the Uprising book...
