It's been said in the fluff time and time again the human sphere doesn't view the CA as a world ending threat. The fact their actions might compromise the fighting on Paradiso might be worthwhile if it furthers their own interests.
And that's kind of the issue. If you assume that the CA is a distraction then it doesn't balance PanO, so you're basically left with YJ + the minor G5 powers = PanO. Given that calculation it makes no sense for the Nomads to support JSA vs YJ: it increases PanO freedom of action which weakens their own position vis a vis PanO. The simplest way this makes sense is if the minor powers are using CA to constrain PanO freedom of action. Which TBH is what we saw during Wotan: the minor powers were free-riding using PanO to defend vs CA and pursuing their own objectives against the other minor powers. Which is an extremely high risk play: if you've underestimated or overestimated CA strength you're left with an unconstrained hegemonic power to deal with. The alternative explanation is that PanO bought off the Nomads and Haqq with something that balanced the loss of YJ's power. So the overall balance of power between PanO and the minors remained the same but the relative power amongst the minor powers changed (with YJ being more of a peer to Nomads and Haqq than the clear second placed power it had prior to Uprising). Nevertheless this has ruined any chance of greater anti-PanO co-operation for the near future. So it's a major diplomatic win for PanO. Tl;dr PanO got a nice thing ;)
As a PanOceania player I agree with this analysis. As one of the PanOceania commanders during Wotan, I absolutely agree with that aspect. But, to be fair, the actual risk of the strategy of throwing PanOceania in vs Combined while everyone else dances in the shadows of the background is that Combined will eventually just roll on through.
Nah the other risk is that PanO defeats CA and is left unrivalled within the sphere and becomes a hegemon. So either an over calculation or an under calculation of CA's strength risks unconstrained hegemonic power. (this risk is extremely unlikely given what the players know about CA, but it's a risk the factions should be considering) The strategy of stabbing YJ in the back only makes sense if you're really certain that the PanO vs CA conflict will remain in a stalemate in the long term (ie there's enough lead time for it ending that you can cobble together an anti-PanO alliance) or you're already in bed with CA. In campaign terms I'd expect to see as basically inflexible: PanO vs CA JSA vs YJ Nomads vs Aleph But it's possible we'll see Ariadna vs CA if the conflict is structured that way. Which would be excellent for PanO because it would allow them to secure a foothold on Dawn in the name of defending vs CA. Whereas with JSA still a part of YJ we'd have seen another power in the mix that PanO would have had to consider. Which would have probably left Ariadna in a better place to defend vs CA without most likely cedinh ground to PanO basically uncontested. Of course CB can screw with this dynamic depending on how they structure the campaign. But unless they structure it that PanO is disproportionately on the defensive (al la Wotan) then PanO should be the wildcard (whereas Haqq / Tohaa will probably tend to continue to play more of a spoiling role).
I think thats a pretty good look at it. But I think it oversells how much the uprising "weakened" yu jing in the overall sphere power politics. In terms of current faction line up within the game yu jing are looking a bit skinnier, but as a power within the sphere the uprising is more akin to a nuisance than some kind of crippling blow. Sure the powers got a kick in to yu jing, I think its more about getting another smaller power in the O-12 which OWES them everything. We might find as other sources of info come out that the Pan-O steel curtain wasn't a total PR win for them. Although I by an large, Pan-O did relatively well out of the whole thing.
Q: I didn't think the Japanese Secessionist state was added of 0-12 yet? Did I miss that? Continuing the conversation: You can't really have it both ways: to paraphrase what you said "the loss of the Japanese Sectorial was merely a nuisance to YJ but the Japanese Secessionist state is a significant smaller power." And yes, making statements about the relative powers of the medium-power factions is hard. But you can say that losing the Japanese Sectorial brings YJ's power relatively closer to Nomads/Haqq and relatively further away from PanO (whether it's now closer to Nomads/Haqq than it is to PanO is up for debate and I don't think the sources provide enough evidence one way or the other). The blow doesn't need to be crippling for that to be the case. I do think, however, that YJ's prestige has been crippled in the near term. As much as we're saying that they appear to be genocidal facists (and yes I do acknowledge the mischaracterisation) so will the populace of the sphere. More than anything the Uprising has morally and diplomatically isolated YJ: they need a win. Basically what I'd like to see from YJ is a long term diplomatic offensive that acknowledges the realpolitik situation and - now that they've done away with the bleeding sore of the JSA - they slowly start to present themselves as a credible alternative to PanO. The way to do this would be to publicly acknowledge their mistakes in dealing with the Uprising crisis (which we're seeing with the disciplinary action against the worst criminals) and reaching out to the other medium powers for support (ie going to Praxis for help in continue / replace the Ten No Bushi programme or deploying elements of the IA to Ariadna in good faith to deal with the Onyx incursion particularly if PanO does the same with Varuna in bad faith at the same time).
I thought that's what it means when o-12 recognises you as an independent state. It's discussed that there are a number of other members of o-12 who aren't named like the big 5. I think JSA would become the largest of those minnows. I agree with your other points. Diplomatically yu Jing are down at the moment. What I meant is as a economical and diplomatic power the uprising hasnt't prevented them from regaining standing somehow. Like in your example
I'm not 100% on what constitutes a 'member of O-12' TBH I only really use that term when referring to the big 5. But I'm not really certain that's correct.
O-12 is a complex beast, but the membership includes all the nations of Earth (and elsewhere) as well as the Infinity factions: The Öberhaus, or Senate, is made up of a fluid number of members, with representation from O-12 itself, from every national power in the Human Sphere (including the Nomads and non-aligned countries). Also known as the Concilium Council, the O-12 Security Council is made up of twelve sitting members: One each from PanOceania, Yu Jing, Haqqislam, the Nomads, and Ariadna, four O-12 representatives, one seat representing all Non- Aligned Nations and an Aspect of ALEPH. Petite Assemblée is a more permanent arrangement made up of the longaj benkoj (the long seats). Exactly thirty of these positions exist—five from each nation on the Security Council plus five O-12 representatives. The O-12 Conclave (also referred to as the Diet of Concilium) is a council which technically consists of the heads of state of the O-12 member states (PanOceania, Yu Jing, Haqqislam, the Nomads, and Ariadna) and the High Commissioner of Concilium. (In practice, these seats are often held by representatives of the various powers who act on behalf of their heads of state.) The Conclave’s only official power is determining the inclusion or exclusion of new O-12 member states (granting them a seat in both the O-12 Conclave and on the O-12 Security Council),
Tl'dr yes JSA is a member of O-12 but that's largely irrelevant given that, for all practical purposes, so is the Druze Society (given they have effective control over a couple of nations).
Plausible? yeah, sorta. The reactions are believable, but they're also against training. Here's the problem: How the Germans dealt with Occupied France is a War Crime. Exactly. Seriously? How fucking many times do I have to say that I don't fucking want CB to fucking fail? I'm trying really hard to not employ a Sailor's Weapons-Grade Vocabulary, but you are not making it easy. Please stop. Very much this. Why the hell would Nomads and Haqq fight against Yu Jing when they need Yu Jing relatively strong to stop PanO from marching all over them? Is that the civilians of the Human Sphere or the governments of the Sphere? That's a very important difference! This is a very good analysis. I don't think there's anything PanO could give to Nomads and Haqq that would re-balance the ~5% GDP and massive political ramifications we have to deal with here. ================= In good news, I finally got a shipping notification for my Uprising book!!!!!
Thats great news! You really should read the book before you get angry about said book. Its disappointingly brief on the whole event though. Freya's summary is actually pretty good as well.
Access to the metatron tech would plausibly do it: speed-of-light comms is a massive strategic weakness for Nomads and Haqq given their dispersed interests. YJ already has it (or rather an equivalent) so the cat is out of the bag: it's an advantage PanO is going to lose soon anyway. From PanO's POV, it's not a bad deal to trade it for a significant diplomatic defeat of YJ that ensures that they can't threaten PanO interests while it's tied up with CA: basically it's trading a fleeting tech advantage for a longer term hedge against YJ's revisionist actions. From the Nomad and Haqq POV that maintains PanO's position relative the medium powers, but brings them up on par with PanO/YJ in an important field. Particularly when you can point at the way YJ mishandled it and say 'we had to act, if we hadn't it Aleph, O-12 and PanO would have moved to stop you anyway and we could not have supported you in light of the actions of the Yuanduan division'. Aleph could plausibly be onboard with it as well: increasing the speed of communication ties the sphere closer together and improves it's capacity to co-ordinate against the EI. It's a long game play: but Aleph's short game actions vs Nomads has already failed.
As a fringe benefit, PanO opening up that tech, with Yu Jing not predicting the move, is a pretty good explanation for how well coordinated the Japanese uprising seems to have been, and why Yu Jing (who one can be certain planned for Japanese rebellions, but likely not for ones that could closely coordinate across multiple systems in real time) seems to have been initially overwhelmed.
YJ in the fluff also came across as legitimately disappointed in the JSA for pulling this stunt - they likely thought they were treating them better than they deserved, so there was definitely an element of parental disappointment in the YJ segments of the fluff. Yes, but it seems, from my reading, that the ones behaving in this way are the Yuandun and ISS, and that there is condemnation of it from a good portion of the state army command - which believe that sort of behavior is tactically ineffective, and that behavior seems to have largely been concentrated in the Kuraimori region. Also it does mention the Japanese civilians were, by and large, extremely hostile so it implies that the troops viewed many of them as hostile combatants, given they aided and abetted terrorists. This gives some context to the psycho-crane quote about 'pacify' anyone who resists - they've had to deal with civilians actively screening for/aiding terrorists, perhaps even attacking Imperial agents, so anyone they think even might be a threat they deal with. This is, obviously, a war crime, but it also gives it less of an ethnic cleansing vibe, and much more of a 'all these people are trying to kill us, so kill them first' vibe. I think if you go into the book with an open mind, you'll probably be able to find 'fixing' it won't be as hard as you fear. Honestly just a diplomatic charm offensive and some prominent show trials of the worst offenders would be a way for YJ to reclaim the moral high ground and then rub Pan-O's face in the steel wall and the protests other nations (like Ariadna and several other minors) had. I see CA+YJ alliance being super unlikely from this, but Ariadna+YJ seems much more plausible, because Ariadna was not remotely happy with the Steel Wall, perhaps enough so that they'd rather have YJ neighbors than Pan-O neighbors.
I hadn't thought about PanO releasing Metatron tech... I suppose I should have, the US actually gave the Permissive Action Link tech used to prevent unintentional nuclear weapon detonations to everyone with nukes when we invented it. Yes, even the Russians and Chinese (though I'm not sure if the Indians and Pakistanis got it). FTL comms is probably the one thing that could have made it worthwhile for the minor powers to side with PanO. Though here's the flip side: What if the Japanese were the ones developing most of the YJ FTL comms, and gave that to the minor powers?
We know that Ariadna already has FTL comms; I can't imagine that it's that hard to get access to. Instant-speed comms, though... that's different. At this point, though, we're speculating - without mention of a reason why, it looks like the minor powers are working for PanO and JSA's benefit rather then their own.
Where do you see this? The only one I have seen condemn the KuraiMori nonsense was Sun Tze, and historically he's largely ignored by Yu Jing High Command in the fluff. Do you have a page number with a quote saying that High Command (outside of that one robot) condemned the YuanDun? On page 43 it mentions that the YanJing and the Imperial Service were very interested in having prisoners, it was the StateEmpire High Command and its troops who weren't "interested in capturing the insurgents whom they normally despised, alive" I've always seen Ariadna have an "us against the whole Human Sphere" attitude, and having them throw in with YJ flies against that mentality. I do think we need some articles from Yu Jing's side of this conflict, and how they are dealing with the whole YuanDun issue. particularly since the available YJ fluff just got cut in half, CB needs to add something to fill that void.
YJ is "only" down ~15 of 59 profiles we had pre-Secession. The problem is that several of them gave unique capabilities that YJ doesn't have anymore.
Yup. And there's no indication that CB plans on replacing them, either - leaving Yu Jing a permanently diminished faction, compared to the rest. They might even have JSA take release cycles from Yu Jing for the next couple years.
