That is a really convoluted scenario, if I had to shoot the TAG from outside of 24" I would have used any heavy weapon and not a "disposable combi" hoping that the TAG will not for some reason break Supressive fire and kill the order, frankly I would do anything else than sacrifice a combi, same goes with the TAG outside of a Jotumn, who is immune to combi who is comfortable to take the 10% chance of having its TAG loosing a STR and leave that unopposed unless its the last couple of orders of the final turn and gamble that not all 3 dice will hit and not all saves will be lost.
Alright. Here is a less convoluted scenario. You have an evader with AP spitfire, it is shooting a TAG in suppression (good range bands, cover, etc). Your chance of winning the face to face is 45.1%, if you win the Gator will lose suppression 35% of the time. You have a 15.7% chance per order to make it drop suppression. You get lucky and the Gator loses suppression on the first order (it is just shy of 1/6 chance). You have now gone from needing 10 orders and dying on the 6th, to favorably killing the TAG in six (five plus one for the first order where it dropped suppression). If it were a guijai, squallo, raicho, or any non nomad armor 8 TAG your evader is most likely dead. Is that simple enough?
Why do you think I am adding percentages? I am quoting expected values of a binomial distribution, I gave you the parameters I used. You can look this up. Just because you "expect" something to happen just means it is the most likely outcome in the sample space, not an 80% chance. In a single instance of a die roll where there 8s a 69% chance of success which result would you expect to see, a success or a failure? Heck 69% and 31% is a hair over 2 to 1 odds, good enough for most bookies. As for the rest. Just because I have a thousand options does not mean I have the points for all of them. Maybe my list building isn't perfect, but I like bringing TAGs, and that means I make sacrifices to do so. Also, if courage (or religious) on a TAG is so insignificant, why did CB makes sure it is on 100% of all non-nomad TAGs?
If the same Evader is shooting the same TAG in suppressive fire from the more than 24”, you have an 82.1% of causing an impact if the TAG persists in his Supressive Fire, and a 43.7% of causing a wound or more. And if the TAG decides to lose his Supressive Fire to shoot you back you’re at 46.5% of winning the FtF vs the 44.2% of the TAG. This is true even in the TAG has courage/religious troop. You only need to face him outside the 24” Suppressive Fire bubble.
Insanely true lmao. I wish Maggie was half as good Szally or the Gator. The Gator would be a straight upgrade on Maggie (in all the important ways, at least) even if she was the same price as the Gator. Instead she's nearly ~10 points more expensive.
And it's a terrible way of expecting results in your game. If you had 51% chance of putting something out of suppressive fire and expect to get it, you're going to be often disappointed. You "expect" 1 success with a 51% roll, but realistically, you expect to be spending 3~ orders to have this be a reliable strategy. Because you're not actually expecting 1 positive result for your order, you're expecting 0.51 positive results. You want to figure out how many orders you expect to spend to be likely to have your outcome, and getting a TAG to guts is not a reliable strategy at all. This argument makes no sense. Every faction needs to make some sacrifices to their lists to bring a TAG, but your TAG isn't limiting enough that your lose all faction identity and faction strength.
Maggie's so happy she gets to stand there and keep getting hit because of Religious while your opponent just rains down pistol shots at her. Too bad she can't move when she's getting shot with a AP HMG.
Funny I did it in one order. Also I suspect that the post is so long is to cover common counter points. They could have just said that these TAGs run from pistols give them courage, but I feel you would still not listen.
The only TAGs I have seen Pan O player run, outside of myself, in 6 years have been the Jotum and the Cutter. If Pan O relied on TAGs then you would see more of them even when they cannot take 2 of the best.
I once had a Yuan Yuan in reactive beat Sheskiin and a Caliban in CC. Doesn't mean I'm calling for either unit to get CC Attack (-3).
This right here is very odd and makes me wonder if you do not understand expected value and statistics. Can things fall out of statistics it happens but do not try and bring it up and then ignore that it is a thing. In this case we are looking at a pass fail for the occurrence of instance which is failing a guts check. This might get confusing, so our pass criteria for failing the guts check (TAG runs) is .25 our fail is (TAG stays) is .75. To get expected value we take 1 divided by the percentage of passing, 1/.25 = 4. So we should see it happen by 4 time if things go by normal distribution on fair dice. To calculate at least 1 passing (TAG runs) happening it is 1 minus probability of failure to the power of the number of times tried. 1 tries 1-.75 = .25 2 tries 1-.75^2 = 1-(,75*.75)= 1-.56 = .44 .... 7 tries 1-.75^7 = 1-.13 = .87 and so on, at some point this number gets close to 1. This is the same sort of math you can do for spending command tokens on doctor test and why pan o doctors are not angels of death in most cases.
I fail to see the relevance because both of them have effectively cc attack -3 because of martials arts.
I love this comment, if religious is a negative then give all Nomad TAGs religious and you will not hear see this conversation again from Karush. I would call that a win win.
Congrats on having a bad play be rewarded by luck? Idk what to say to this comment. I see TAGs in PanO all the time, idk what to tell you. Imagine if CB just caved in and gave everything to everyone every time someone complains, we'd have a very homogenous game. I'd be very surprised if a Nomad TAG failed a guts to a out of 24" combi while it's in suppressive fire more often than the number of threads on Nomad TAG having courage, lol.
May be one when I first started but nothing at all recently on them, it may be because their model got discontinued.
Got power crept by the knight of the holy sepulcher... also doesn't help that they have not sold that TAG since 2016.
I had other orders budgeted for it but it was the best way of dealing with it at the time so there for it was not a bad play. Different strokes for different folks. I see the Maggi more then Pan O tags other then the Cutter and Jotum. In fact the Maggi with mine dispense was very annoying as an area control model, the person thru out 2 mines and then went into suppression. Apparently they took not of how I play my Rudra. But CB has caved on things such as the roadbot in O 12 and the Squalos being removed form army earlier. Moreover, CB seems to think Nomads should use TAGs otherwise they would not have invested time into making the Gator and the Stigmata. The thing is the tags I see used are often mim -6 or armor 9+, which Nomads do not, and no one here is saying they should.
