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Pick Your Poison: MSV2 or Mimetism?

Discussion in 'Druze Bayram Security' started by oldGregg, May 1, 2018.

?

Brawler MSV2 MULTI Sniper or Druze MULTI Sniper with Mimetism?

  1. Brawler with MSV2

    16 vote(s)
    48.5%
  2. Druze with Mimetism

    16 vote(s)
    48.5%
  3. Neither! I choose you, Armand le Muet!

    1 vote(s)
    3.0%
  1. jfunkd

    jfunkd Rebel Myrmidon Graffiti Artist
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    I thought I would put this in perspective just so one can see how effective Le Muet can be offensively, the caveat being that the target isn't equipped with MSV.

    I took the example of a Fusilier Missile Launcher in a 5 Man link team, which is a decent example of a tough to beat ARO.

    Here are the odds of a 5 man linked Brawler MSR fighting it in cover.

    These odds have a mistake in them: the fusi was only given the +1 burst, not the +3 BS. See later posts below for the details.

    Active Player

    65.72% Brawlers, Mercenary Enforcers (MSV 2) inflicts 1 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Unconscious)
    45.35% Brawlers, Mercenary Enforcers (MSV 2) inflicts 2 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Dead)

    Failures
    12.42% Neither player succeeds

    Reactive Player
    21.86% Fusiliers inflicts 1 or more wounds on Brawlers, Mercenary Enforcers (MSV 2) (Unconscious)
    17.27% Fusiliers inflicts 2 or more wounds on Brawlers, Mercenary Enforcers (MSV 2) (Dead)

    Here is Le Muet....

    Active Player
    64.58% Armand 'Le Muet' (MSV 1) inflicts 1 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Unconscious)
    38.06% Armand 'Le Muet' (MSV 1) inflicts 2 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Dead)

    Failures
    18.34% Neither player succeeds

    Reactive Player
    17.09% Fusiliers inflicts 1 or more wounds on Armand 'Le Muet' (MSV 1) (Unconscious)
    13.53% Fusiliers inflicts 2 or more wounds on Armand 'Le Muet' (MSV 1) (Dead)

    The HMG in the link is about 7% better in it's best range band but my point stands that burst 2 Le Muet can hang with our best offensive units who are throwing more dice.

    Active Player

    71.52% Druze Shock Teams inflicts 1 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Unconscious)
    42.15% Druze Shock Teams inflicts 2 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Dead)

    Failures
    15.39% Neither player succeeds

    Reactive Player
    13.08% Fusiliers inflicts 1 or more wounds on Druze Shock Teams (Unconscious)
    9.87% Fusiliers inflicts 2 or more wounds on Druze Shock Teams (Dead)
     
    #21 jfunkd, May 2, 2018
    Last edited: May 18, 2018
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  2. oldGregg

    oldGregg Well-Known Member

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    Percentage-wise, the results are similar, but there is deficiency. Also no SSL2.

    Of course, Symbiont Armour + ODD etc. is great and provides different avenues of attack. I'm excited to try him out supported by some Peacemakers and Hunzakut.
     
  3. Teslarod

    Teslarod Trebuchet Enthusiast

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    Hm this might be because you're not playing a lot of Vanilla. MSV1 Le Muet pays like 5 points for that MSV1. This much of a pricetag to make him vulnerable to White Noise and take away the Mines (for 0SWC) usually pushes the choice towards the Minelayer.
    Might depend on what Le Muet will be used for though. For an ARO piece I'd definitely want the Minelayer, if he is supposed to do a lot of work in Active I'd say the MSV1 is an option.

    There are a few things off
    5 man Brawler Sniper vs 5 man Fusilier ML (both +3 and Cover)
    Active Player
    50.98% Brawlers, Mercenary Enforcers (MSV 2) inflicts 1 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Unconscious)
    33.23% Brawlers, Mercenary Enforcers (MSV 2) inflicts 2 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Dead)

    Failures
    14.13% Neither player succeeds
    Reactive Player
    34.88% Fusiliers inflicts 1 or more wounds on Brawlers, Mercenary Enforcers (MSV 2) (Unconscious)
    27.50% Fusiliers inflicts 2 or more wounds on Brawlers, Mercenary Enforcers (MSV 2) (Dead)

    Armand le Muet vs 5 man Fusilier ML (both +3 and Cover)
    Active Player
    56.51% Armand 'Le Muet' (MSV 1) inflicts 1 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Unconscious)
    32.09% Armand 'Le Muet' (MSV 1) inflicts 2 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Dead)

    Failures
    17.23% Neither player succeeds
    Reactive Player
    26.26% Fusiliers inflicts 1 or more wounds on Armand 'Le Muet' (MSV 1) (Unconscious)
    20.64% Fusiliers inflicts 2 or more wounds on Armand 'Le Muet' (MSV 1) (Dead)

    5 man Druze HMG vs 5 man Fusilier ML (both +3 and Cover)
    Active Player
    57.92% Druze Shock Teams inflicts 1 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Unconscious)
    28.75% Druze Shock Teams inflicts 2 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Dead)

    Failures
    18.87% Neither player succeeds
    Reactive Player
    23.22% Fusiliers inflicts 1 or more wounds on Druze Shock Teams (Unconscious)
    17.00% Fusiliers inflicts 2 or more wounds on Druze Shock Teams (Dead)

    5 man Druze MSR vs 5 man Fusilier ML (both +3 and Cover)
    Active Player
    67.21% Druze Shock Teams (Mimetism) inflicts 1 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Unconscious)
    48.90% Druze Shock Teams (Mimetism) inflicts 2 or more wounds on Fusiliers (Dead)

    Failures
    11.26% Neither player succeeds
    Reactive Player
    21.54% Fusiliers inflicts 1 or more wounds on Druze Shock Teams (Mimetism) (Unconscious)
    16.04% Fusiliers inflicts 2 or more wounds on Druze Shock Teams (Mimetism) (Dead)


    Odds to cause/take damage vs Fusilier ML:

    Brawler MSR 1.46 : 1
    Le Muet 2.15 : 1
    Druze HMG 2.49 : 1
    Druze MSR 3.12 : 1

    Druze MSR takes the cake by far. Druze HMG is something I would consider risking. Le Muet and Brawler MSR is way too dangerous for my taste.
    To give some perspective here's a Swiss Guard HMG in comparison, something I consider a safe choice to take out a linked ML:

    Swiss HMG 6.77 : 1

    It doesn't get much better than that outside of CC. The Fusilier ML retains 10.66% to cause damage, and the majority of that number is raw crit chance for having B2.

    The important part about all those numbers is they apply only against visorless troops without VIS Mods. A core linked LI ARO is fairly common so these numbers are useful to look at.
    Still against different troops on the other side of the table things change drastically. Against an opposing MSV1 Le Muet the Brawler Sniper is vastly superior.
    Against targets not shooting back but Dodging the HMG beats the MSR, against Smoke AROs the Brawler turns them into normal Rolls or forces a Dodge instead.

    Overall they do different things. Against raw stats the Brawler is the worst one, however if the target can be cheesed with Smoke or has VIS Mods he turns into the best. Outside of White Noise the Brawler will be the most consistent with the least bad matchups and the option of Smoke turning those into his favour against anything without MSV2 or Link Bonus.

    Considering the Brawler is also by far the cheapest of the bunch, I'd always recommend the Brawler first and then include a +1 according to the rest of the list's capabilities.
     
    #23 Teslarod, May 18, 2018
    Last edited: May 18, 2018
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  4. jfunkd

    jfunkd Rebel Myrmidon Graffiti Artist
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    I double checked all of @Teslarod's results on the infinity dice calculator tool and they are correct.

    What's strange is I double checked all of my results before I posted them on the calculator too and they were the results the calculator was giving at that time.

    I cannot reproduce my "mistaken" results through any combination of intentional mistakes now. Also all of the results are different in a consistently lower success rates for all of the active turn units involved.

    @toadchild is there an issue with the calculator tool? Not a criticism mate I am thankful for the tool, but this is just the first time I've had a reason to question its results.
     
    #24 jfunkd, May 18, 2018
    Last edited: May 18, 2018
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  5. Teslarod

    Teslarod Trebuchet Enthusiast

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    I guess it was just the usual clicking accident. A little fiddling gives me your numbers when I only give the Fusiliers the 3 man Bonus.

    Not the end of the world, that just happens to the best of us from time to time.
    Just as an anecdote for you. What works well for me with this many variables to enter is to doublecheck results mentally, a Brawler and Fusilier have the same stats with respectively B3 and B2, which should result in around 60:40 odds for the Brawler.
    Not sure if probability is as intuitive for you, but your gut has usually a good idea what seems weird and what okay.

    Your numbers are still useful, they show that things change drastically if you can manage to remove someone from the Link before taking on the ML.

    @toadchild false alert, calculator should be fine. As usual thanks for all the hard work mate.
     
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  6. oldGregg

    oldGregg Well-Known Member

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    So, I've now played with every sniper a couple times and its about time for new decision making. The Druze MSR is a beast, no doubt. The most recent game I had, I also had the Brawler MSR, and he did a ton of the heavy lifting. The brawler was able to do all sorts of things I could not (or did not want to) do with the Druze.

    I really enjoyed the utility of MSV2, but I've been curious what a game with the HMG + Druze MSR would look like. I'm a little worried about being hamstrung by smoke/TO shenanigans, but the combo seems strong.

    I'm going to try it out soon, but what do y'all think?
     
  7. jfunkd

    jfunkd Rebel Myrmidon Graffiti Artist
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    @Teslarod, yup that seems to be it. Thanks for finding my mistake.
     
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  8. Teslarod

    Teslarod Trebuchet Enthusiast

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    I'd actually try it vs a bad matchup with a lot of Smoke, Mimetism, Camo, ODDs or TO to figure out if it causes a problem.
    Against regular dudesmen the Brawler and Druze aren't that different. The Brawler just makes a lot of things easier to deal with while the Druze is better in normal engagements with Mimetism and FAT1.
    For me the noteable quirk of DBS is that the Druze HMG and Sniper don't suffer the usual HMG > MSR dilemma.
    LI only pay 1 SWC for the HMG which makes it more attractive for them. As MI Druze don't have that problem when the HMG is also 1.5 SWC. Mimetism also nicely offsets the HMG's advantage in FTF from 16-32.

    So I'd probably go with Brawler Sniper + Druze Sniper instead of the HMG altogether. Feels hella weird to say, but that's just how it is.

    Looking at Kamau, Brawler and Druze MSR, CB seem to have aknowledged that MSRs couldn't quite keep up with the power of a HMG on Regular troops lacking Marker States and really high stats.
     
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  9. oldGregg

    oldGregg Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I've been greatly enjoying the two snipers, but its a strange feeling when I don't bring a HMG.
     
  10. jfunkd

    jfunkd Rebel Myrmidon Graffiti Artist
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    Definitely strange to read as well, but anecdotally the HMG has been occasionally disappointing to me over the 40 or so games I have played with DBS.

    At BS 15 B 5 DAM 16 you'd expect it would always be boss, but I have lost a notable amount of FtF rolls with it in the active; usually when the odds get altered by camo, suppressive fire or full auto mods to where the odds only marginally favor the HMG on the roll.
     
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  11. toadchild

    toadchild EI Aspect
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    Yeah, Mimetism is a really amazing skill. Thanks for sharing all of this data, both of you! I'm just starting to experiment with Druze a bit and hadn't gotten far enough to make this jump myself.
     
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  12. oldGregg

    oldGregg Well-Known Member

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    You'll have a ton of fun! (At least I did).

    Now that it isn't quite so brand new, I'd be really interested in hearing your thoughts. I went through some rough trials in the transition, adapting to the style of play. Initially I thought Druze would be on the weak side of sectorials, but they continue to impress me.

    Its almost hard to transition back to less flexible/powerful fireteams.
     
  13. Q.A.I.

    Q.A.I. Well-Known Member

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    Glad the Druze MSR is getting recognition. I thought I was crazy for a little bit lol. I was a bit disappointed when we didn't get Jethro at first, but throwing a NWI, marksmanship, and a MSV2 on top of what we got would be utterly absurd
     
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  14. oldGregg

    oldGregg Well-Known Member

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    Nah, I’ll still take Jethro, no questions asked.

    Gimme!
     
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  15. jfunkd

    jfunkd Rebel Myrmidon Graffiti Artist
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    Assisted fire on a linked Clipper SML in the active and direct firing, saved my bacon in a tournament today, in a tough game, and on a dicey roll.

    I'm going to give the Druze sniper a go over the HMG and see what happens.
     
    #35 jfunkd, May 20, 2018
    Last edited: May 20, 2018
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  16. oldGregg

    oldGregg Well-Known Member

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    Heck yeah! The clipper has destroyed opponents almost single handedly for me! Last game I played with both snipers and the clipper again. It was deadly as all get out.
     
  17. Cthulhu363

    Cthulhu363 Well-Known Member

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    None of the above! ABH sniper for .5 SWC goodness!!
     
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  18. jfunkd

    jfunkd Rebel Myrmidon Graffiti Artist
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    The ABH sniper is a solid choice, especially if she lucks out and gets a nice Booty level 2 roll (ODD, mimetism, extra armor).

    That said, a linked brawler or Druze sniper is often hitting on 15s or 18s in ARO with DA ammo. I don't think I would give up a linked sniper for an ABH unless I absolutely needed the link to do something that prevented them from setting up for area denial AROs. I have genuinely lost count of how many times the snipers (and Clipper) have killed multiple units in the reactive turn in the same game.

    The ABH does work well in addition to a fireteam and is my favorite of the ABH profiles. Under the best circumstances she's a mini-me Le Muet.
     
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  19. jfunkd

    jfunkd Rebel Myrmidon Graffiti Artist
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    I brought it up to highlight how much a -3 modifier can influence the percentages of a roll.

    The situation was end of tournament, on top table in Decap versus a MO 10 HI list capable of switching between 2 nasty 5 man links.

    I began as the active player and on turn one a linked Hospitaller Knight and Magister with Panzerfaust were both in cover and had LoF to my Clipper on the top of a building. If I left it for his turn, I'd be eating BS17 B5 HMG shots and the Clipper would basically have to crit to survive. Also my link was effectively pinned and would lose the Clipper if I activated it without the Clipper being the leader. I had already lost my Brawler MSV sniper to the HMG Knight's ARO the previous activation.

    So I took the risk. Unlinked Gromoz put assisted fire on the Clipper and turned this roll...

    Active Player
    33.93% Clipper Dronbot inflicts 1 or more wounds on Knights Hospitaller (1 W)
    23.93% Clipper Dronbot inflicts 2 or more wounds on Knights Hospitaller (Unconscious)
    10.93% Clipper Dronbot inflicts 3 or more wounds on Knights Hospitaller (Dead)
    Failures
    23.74% Neither player succeeds
    Reactive Player
    42.32% Knights Hospitaller inflicts 1 or more wounds on Clipper Dronbot (Unconscious)
    8.72% Knights Hospitaller inflicts 2 or more wounds on Clipper Dronbot (Unconscious 2)

    into this one, which is still dicey AF but significantly better...

    Active Player
    48.56% Clipper Dronbot inflicts 1 or more wounds on Knights Hospitaller (1 W)
    34.96% Clipper Dronbot inflicts 2 or more wounds on Knights Hospitaller (Unconscious)
    17.49% Clipper Dronbot inflicts 3 or more wounds on Knights Hospitaller (Dead)
    Failures
    20.73% Neither player succeeds
    Reactive Player
    30.71% Knights Hospitaller inflicts 1 or more wounds on Clipper Dronbot (Unconscious)
    5.08% Knights Hospitaller inflicts 2 or more wounds on Clipper Dronbot (Unconscious 2)

    I lucked out and rolled like a 16 & 10, and the Knights both rolled below 10s. Then they both failed all 4 saves. This was my first step in what turned out to be a hard fought minor victory which won me the event.

    Sometimes, you gotta take the risky shots and I would have been a lot less comfortable doing it without the cover modifier being ignored.

    Sorry to branch off into the Clipper, but in the role of an area denial ARO and it's 1.5 SWC cost, I think it's perfectly relevant in this thread too. It can substitute for either sniper, but makes an even better addition to one in the core fireteam.

    It's rare that I use the Clipper offensively, guided or not, but it is a crucial part of my ARO game. It's ideal for limiting opposition fireteam movements.
     
    #39 jfunkd, May 24, 2018
    Last edited: May 25, 2018
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  20. McNamara

    McNamara Merc Rep

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    I guess the option Marksmen Lvl2 does make the Clipper more viavble then the Brawler HRL. It's a bit of a shame because the HRL is quite cool, but outside of a Brawler Haris it's just not justified since the Clipper costs the same.
     
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