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Monofilament

Discussion in 'PanOceania' started by Rannith, Jan 27, 2018.

  1. Rannith

    Rannith Well-Known Member

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    But if you need the second roll by definition you have already failed the first so unless the failure gave you some kind of experience or insight bonus you are back in the same position you started. Statistics lie.
     
  2. Rannith

    Rannith Well-Known Member

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    Only if there is some kind of quantum entanglement linking the two totally individual events. And if you are suggesting that this conversation needs to shift to the theoretical physics thread.
     
  3. eciu

    eciu Easter worshiper

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    He is talking about probability of suceeding once in 2 rolls.

    Dammit people should have been taught mathematics at school.
     
  4. Rannith

    Rannith Well-Known Member

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    @eciu I know the maths and I understand it I just don't ever remember it applying to reality in any reliable way.
     
  5. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    You should trust the people who actually do understand statistics then.
     
  6. Rannith

    Rannith Well-Known Member

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    Sorry Hecaton the old ones are still the best. There are lies, Damned lies and Statistics
     
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  7. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    There are regular run-of-the-mill idiots and then there's you.
     
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  8. xagroth

    xagroth Mournful Echo

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    Please remain civil. A post with a veiled disqualification is still one, and can summon the Banhammer.
     
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  9. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    People denying the validity of mathematics or, say, that the earth is a spheroid are worthy of mockery.
     
  10. Rannith

    Rannith Well-Known Member

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    I don't deny the validity of mathematics used honestly. I do question the reliability of statistics.
     
  11. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    The way in which you're criticizing a simple repeated die roll indicates that you don't understand enough of statistics to criticize the implementation of statistics in a worthwhile manner. You're also implying that someone explaining to you how re-rolls on a Doctor roll was dishonest, which is such an outrageous assertion that it seems to be most likely that of a troll.
     
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  12. Ayadan

    Ayadan Knight of the TAG Order

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    You know, you should listen what guys are telling you there. Standard hacking device doesn't need a roll for supportware programms, first. Second, we are talking about probabilities. Of course, the worst case can happen sometimes but most of the time, it won't and this is why we choose one choice above another.
    You're saying docs, engineers and hackers we have are lost points? Well, maybe in N2 (I began just few months before HSN3 so I don't know N2 very well), but I have a different experience of them with N3. I have two lists full of remotes and hackers which bring fear each time I play one of them.

    I have seen clockmakers fail their roll but since Nomads haven't Rem Pres TAGs, it turned in a tragedy while I still can reroll with my WIP12 machinist by using an ordrer if the TAG is in the first inconscious state or a command token.
     
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  13. Stiopa

    Stiopa Trust The Fuckhead

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    Guys, I disagree with Rannith, and the adage about statistics being the greatest lie isn't a set-in-stone truth but a joke with built-in attack on data manipulation, but attacking him for his opinions is a nasty and stupid thing to do. If you don't have something constructive to post, like Ayadan had, then don't post at all.

    @Rannith: as you've said, give those units a try. Check the changes in rules and run them a few time (and by few I mean at least ten games).
     
  14. Rannith

    Rannith Well-Known Member

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    @Stiopa thanks, I will try it it will just take a while as I will be lucky to get a game a month. But I will keep at it. I really hope they do show some improvement over what they were.

    @Ayadan actually nobody ever mentioned that a standard hacking device does not require a roll for supportwware. And second when talking about probabilities, all I can go by is what I have personal experience with and that is what I have done.
     
  15. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    You might want to take a more sober look at things.
     
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  16. Rannith

    Rannith Well-Known Member

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  17. psychoticstorm

    psychoticstorm Aleph's rogue child
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    There are three kind of people, those that believe in statistics as a field of science, those that do not and those that could not care less, all three of them fall under the forum rules about behaving in a polite manner.

    Please behave appropriately.
     
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  18. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    I'm saying that subjective human analysis of our own "luck" is almost always extremely inaccurate. Mathematics (i.e. statistics) explains these events in a quantitative manner; hence why WIP 12 w/ a re-roll is an 84% chance of success in total. This is why many players find doctors and engineers more reliable in N3 than N2; in fact, the difference between WIP 13 and WIP 12 in this situation (roll to use doctor or engineer w/ a re-roll) is only 3.75% (84% vs. 87.75%). If you think this is a difference larger than that, it's a trick of your cognition and not supported in the math, or reality.
     
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  19. Rannith

    Rannith Well-Known Member

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    @Hecaton I absolutely agree with you in terms of the reliability of first hand experiential analysis. It is one of the reasons police are always wary of “eyewitness accounts”. I will also grant that all of my experience with Hackers, doctors and engineers was in the old rules before the introduction of the command token re-rolls and I will be very interested to see how much of a difference that actually makes. All I can say with 100% confidence, no strike that nothing has 100% confidence but with as high a level of confidence as I can reach is that in at least 20 possibly more but those are the data I could find, games I did not succeed at a single Doc, Eng or Hack roll. What kind of aberration in the statistics or probabilities that represents I don’t know. But it is what I experienced. (A genuine eyewitness account.)
     
  20. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    When the probability of success on a single roll is known (60%), then looking at a run of bad luck like that and projecting it into the future is an error.
     
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