Bromad Academy Initiative

Hmm. I'm not sure if @toadchild 's dice calculator has implemented N4 E/M ammo, but it's saying the zapper only has a 22% chance to fry Krit. That seems a bit low to me - it has a 40% chance to hit him (if he fails his dodge) but then should have excellent odds of him failing the save. Maybe somewhere around 30% chance to fry Krit? And similar odds to fry the Guija.

Assuming 30% odds on each, that's around 50% to get at least one of them. Getting either of them is a good outcome. Fry Krit, he's probably out of the game and Andromeda is still threatening the Guija. Fry the Guija, and Andromeda is no longer locked in CC and can now Guard Krit when he goes to repair it. So, Zapper is 50% odds of an excellent outcome.

Zapper also forces them to dodge, so Andromeda survives and still gets a chance to CC the Guija on the next order.

If she Guards Krit, even if he dodges she's 64% to put him unconscious and 26% to kill him outright. More likely, the Guija murders her and she's 69% to put Krit unconscious.

If she CCs the Guija, it's got better odds to win the F2F than she does, and even if she wins, a D-Charge is unlikely to kill the Guija. This is probably the worst of the reasonable options.

I think my vote is Guard Krit. 69% odds to eliminate a valuable unit are better than the estimated 50% odds from Zapper. Zapper gives her another chance to fight the Guija, but her odds in that fight are low.

 

I vote Zapper. It hopefully forces the Dodge, which helps waste orders. Bricking two high value models seems worth the chance.

 

I went for this option as well. My reasoning was that if I chose Zapper and they successfully dodged, the scenario would change to a Guijia in CC with +1B if Krit moved also into CC with his Dodge Mov. But if Andromeda could get rid of Krit, there would be less chances for someone to repair the Guijia if and when some other unit shot at it.

 

It definitely forces the Dodge. If they don't Dodge, there's an 80% chance to brick Krit and a 75% chance to brick the Guija.

Assuming they Dodge, it's 32% to brick Krit and 34% to brick the Guija. I did the math by hand this time, so the dice calculator must not be up to date with N4 E/M ammo.

That's 55% to brick at least one of them, which is pretty good.

45% chance they both dodge, and Krit dodges into CC. Then they cancel their fireteam and the Guija pastes Andromeda in an order or two with a B2 DACCW. Eats probably 2-3 orders and a command token to reform the fireteam. Not bad either.

If she Guards Krit, she has a 69% chance to eliminate him, while the Guija has a 64% chance to kill her (95% chance to wound her). So even if she doesn't kill Krit, she has a 46% chance of surviving to keep eating 2-3 orders and a CT. Average of around 1 order eaten.

So, overall I think it's, very roughly:
Zapper: 55% eliminate a target, otherwise eats 2-3 orders and a command token
Guard: 69% eliminate a target, otherwise eats 1 order and half a command token.

I'm still liking Guard, though I could easily be missing something.

 

You can set the simulator to DA, BTS damage, and then manually adjust BTS. 31.9% for Krit and 33.75% for Guijia.
The dice roller is using N3 E/M instead of N3 E/M2, which is what N4 E/M is.

I honestly think this is a tougher puzzle for the Yu Jing player. Both Krit and Guijia are disproportional investments in both mission and combat effectiveness compared to Andromeda and getting a good trade after exposing both of them at the same time to Andromeda is very very tricky for the Yu Jing player.
Whether Zapper both or D-Charge strike Krit, Andromeda stands very good chance to raw profit here.
If she places a D-charge on Krit you'll probably have to take the 75% risk of losing Crit in order to splat Andromeda with an unopposed Guijia attack.
If she Zappers you can either splat her and take a roughly 50% risk with both (which nets to 25% risk of probably permanently IMM-B the Guijia), or you can Dodge and still face pretty bad odds of taking her down in melee next order with odds shown above.
Both are good trade odds.
(If looking at splatting, CC Attacking with Guijia against a No Action Andromeda has the same odds of doing two wounds to her as the flamer has of doing one (65%), so CC Attack or Dodge is the Guijia's choices)

 

There might be a typo in here. I'm pretty sure you meant to say you're accepting submissions until the last day of 2022, not 2023.

 

Can you submit more than one mini into the painting contest?