The change to critical hits is a huge change to the game. I’ve heard a reaction from quite a few people who now feel that AP ammo is more important than ever. I agree. But I’ve also heard people suggesting that the age of the dominant hmg has come to an end. I’m not sure that I agree there. To get a sense, I wanted to look at some numbers. Some weapons used against different targets, focusing on the armor saves required to survive in an effort to determine the efficacy of different weapons. I’ll focus on: boarding shotguns, combi rifles, multi rifles, breaker combis, hmgs, hrls, feuerbachs, and the Marut firing its multi hmg. The targets will include those most paltry foes of ALEPH: alguaciles (arm 1, bts 0), sombras (3, 6), hollow men (4, 6), mobile brigada (5, 3), gecko (6, 6), and szalamandra (8, 9). This should give us a good spread of data to help us understand which tools are most effective for punching through armor. In all cases, I’m going to assume cover, because it accounts for the bulk of shooting, and presents some interesting opportunities to examine the effects of templates. I’m usually not going to take into account burst, continuous damage, or DA, just because the goal is to get a sense of how much the weapon profile impacts the damage roll. So, without further stalling, except for this little bit: Alguacil saves on a die face of: 14 vs boarding shotgun blast 11 vs boarding shotgun hit 10 vs combi rifle 10 vs multi rifle AP 11 vs breaker combi 12 vs hmg 12 vs hrl hit 14 vs hrl blast 11 vs feuerbach burst or explosive 13 vs multi hmg In the first case, it’s pretty clear that blast is the most important trait for denying armor. This makes sense as AP does nothing to anything with armor 0 or 1. With low armor, you can expect about a 50% save rate against most weapons for each hit. This means that for models with low armor, your best bet is to not get hit. Sombra saves on a die face of: 12 vs boarding shotgun blast 10 vs boarding shotgun hit 8 vs combi rifle 9 vs multi rifle AP 8 vs breaker combi 10 vs hmg 9 vs hrl hit 12 vs hrl blast 10 vs feuerbach burst 9 vs feuerbach explosive 11 vs multi hmg shock 12 vs multi hmg AP mode The breakdown is very similar to the Alguacil. Although AP pushes the successful save up by one point. Blast is still the biggest factor. Interestingly, against everything except blast weapons, armor 3 means a model is more likely to make the save than not. Hollowman saves on a die face of: 11 vs boarding shotgun blast 10 vs boarding shotgun hit 7 vs combi rifle 9 vs multi rifle AP 8 vs breaker combi 9 vs hmg 8 vs hrl hit 11 vs hrl blast 10 vs feuerbach burst 8 vs feuerbach explosive 10 vs multi hmg shock 12 vs multi hmg AP mode Interestingly, and entirely expectedly, although it is kind of nice to see, armor 4 makes no difference against AP as compared to armor 3. Against everything else it’s...one point better! Typically, models with armor 4 have multiple wounds and high stats, which means that they’re actually looking at good returns on armor saves. They are less likely to take multiple hits because of their physique and ballistics and they are more likely to make their armor saves. Mobile Brigada saves on a die face of: 10 vs boarding shotgun blast 9 vs boarding shotgun hit 6 vs combi rifle 8 vs multi rifle AP 9 vs breaker combi 8 vs hmg 7 vs hrl hit 10 vs hrl blast 9 vs feuerbach burst 7 vs feuerbach explosive 9 vs multi hmg shock 11 vs multi hmg AP mode This still paints a similar picture. Although blast at this point is only one point better than AP. This makes sense, blast reduces armor by 3 and AP reduces armor 6 by 3, do that’s the break point. Gecko saves on a die face of: 9 vs boarding shotgun blast 9 vs boarding shotgun hit 5 vs combi rifle 8 vs multi rifle AP 8 vs breaker combi 7 vs hmg 7 vs hrl hit 9 vs hrl blast 9 vs feuerbach burst 6 vs feuerbach explosive 8 vs multi hmg shock 11 vs multi hmg AP mode With armor 6, there is a marked difference between normal ammunition and AP ammunition. AP and blast ammunition are equally effective, however. Noting that boarding shotguns, blast mode rocket launchers, and AP feuerbachs cause the target to fail the save just under 50% as compared to the 25-35% chance of normal ammunition is significant. Especially because armor 6 targets are often very effective at opposing incoming fire. Szalamandra saves on a die face of: 7 vs boarding shotgun blast 8 vs boarding shotgun hit 3 vs combi rifle 7 vs multi rifle AP 6 vs breaker combi 5 vs hmg 5 vs hrl hit 7 vs hrl blast 8 vs feuerbach burst 4 vs feuerbach explosive 6 vs multi hmg shock 10 vs multi hmg AP mode So, this is where things get interesting. Without blast or AP, you’re essentially wasting shots if you’re shooting at an armor 8+ TAG. 15-20% chance to wound is not enough to rely on in any situation. Sure, if you’re desperate and don’t have any other option, I guess you could try it. I do think it’s interesting to note how potent blast (and also denying cover) can be, even against high armor targets. While I’d absolutely prefer a linked feuerbach or a multi hmg platform, heavy rocket launchers still present a sizable threat. Against armor 9 and 10, obviously that will swing one point further in favor of AP. It is worth mentioning the breaker combi (and the slightly rarer breaker rifle) are actually only less effective than a combi rifle against very few targets. Interventors, Asawira, Wildcats, Kamau, and Bolts come to mind. Because of AP, BTS needs to be significantly higher than armor to manifest the trait. When compared to multi rifles compared to breaker, however, it comes down to which stat is higher. Looking at the numbers, helps me put in perspective exactly what to expect when shooting different targets. When taking on TAGs, blast is useful, AP is highly desirable. Even a multi rifle is a strong option against heavy armor, especially if you can secure the extra burst from a link. At the same time, while taking on HI fireteams, small arms are more effective than my gut tells me. Obviously denying cover dramatically increases the odds of landing damage. However, even a spitfire will wound armor 4 heavy infantry in cover on 8s, which is still pretty good. Linked hmgs do have the capacity to shred HI, but it’s likely to take two (maybe three) orders to accomplish it. When you’re talking about removing a 30+ point model in a tactical window format, it might be worth the expenditure.
Thanks for running some numbers! The crit change has definitely shifted the relative value of ammo types and high burst. I’ll try to put some more time into the N4 dice calc to make it easier to do analyses like this one.