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2019 in Numbers - ITS data analysis

Discussion in 'Access Guide to the Human Sphere' started by Ieldin Soecr, Jan 23, 2020.

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  1. Teslarod

    Teslarod when in doubt, Yeet

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    Don't forget that includes all Tactical Window and Limited Insertion tournaments.:grimacing:
    The real number is roughly 20-30% higher without those games.

    Any chance someone could revisit the numbers CB presented in the past and why they are so vastly different from what our boy @Ieldin Soecr pulled from the same source?
    His numbers look persistent for several years in a row. The numbers from CB panels are very erratic.

    If you had the intern do them, we'd be happy to run a crash course on statistics and data analysis for him.
    If it was Bostria - hope you learned your lesson to not let Bostria do Math things, he has other strengths :laughing:

    Good to hear confirmation on the FREE MODE again.
     
  2. HellLois

    HellLois What the Hell...Lois?
    CB Staff

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    never!!! I count with that

    That are the ITS info of this season. As you can see tactical window is popular, but there are a lot of tournaments thta dont use tactical windows, So of the 713 tournaments, 174 uses the tactical window extra ;)

    Total of events 713
    Tactical Window 174
    SpecOps 97
    Soldiers of fortune 84
    Limited Insertion 62
    Campaing 1
    Scalation 3
     
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  3. emperorsaistone

    emperorsaistone Well-Known Member

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    Interesting...I thought that Tactical Window would have been more popular. Especially considering what the poll about the max 15 Orders is showing.
     
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  4. Cartographer

    Cartographer Well-Known Member

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    It'd be interesting to see how the win % for each force changed LI to Tac Window to Unrestricted, though there may simply not be enough data to draw any conclusions.
     
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  5. fatherboxx

    fatherboxx Mission control, I'm coming home.

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    Well this season in our city an overwhelming majority of events were in Tactical Window and the Satellite in Moscow was too.
    But then I listen to the last White Noise podcast and apparently in Australia there were barely any TW events! It is definetely an issue of local tastes and preferences.

    (People definitely should try playing serious events in that mode before rushing to conclusions about viability of certain armies IMO)
     
  6. Ieldin Soecr

    Ieldin Soecr Well-Known Member

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    I added the distinction between LI/Tactical Window/No Extra and for No Extra the top/mid/bottom 33% players

    Data download
     
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  7. Mahtamori

    Mahtamori Well-Known Member

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    Oof, LI has no faction balance what so ever :)
    Combined, Aleph and O-12 sticking out like towering colossi and so many factions in lower 30s%. Curiously the "designed for LI" IA only barely gets better than average - which to be fair means they're balanced there, not super strong.

    Meanwhile TW seems to be fairly well balanced with only Spiral and Tohaa going near 60%. Still some actions struggling in that format compared to unbound, namely MRRF, Tunguska and USARF. Morats seem to just be struggling.
     
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  8. Triumph

    Triumph Well-Known Member

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    Excellent news
     
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  9. Teslarod

    Teslarod when in doubt, Yeet

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    Limited Insertion 62 events

    Less then 10% of the total data sample size. Your mileage may vary on drawing conclusions if the entire sample size for a Faction could be the same beginner or outstanding player. Or won 5/5 rolls to go first that had a huge impact.

    The top/mid/bottom 33% player stats are gonna be fun to dissect tonight though.
     
  10. Cartographer

    Cartographer Well-Known Member

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    Nice.

    So, if I'm reading this right, average orders across all factions go:
    15.13 - top 33%
    14.41 - mid 33%
    13.74 - bottom 33%

    Supports the hypothesis that more orders correlates with higher win rate.
     
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  11. Mahtamori

    Mahtamori Well-Known Member

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    Small sample sizes can be statistically significant (though I never actually finished that university course 15 years ago, so I'm not one to make that analysis), but you're counting number of tournaments not matches so the sample size is 2551 in total and it is also significant when, like for MRRF or Ikari, the humans involved have basically refused to play the factions. So while Ikari's sample size can't be used for statistical analysis, we can tell that players seem to find them a waste of time in limited insertion and that OSS with their 135 matches can be viewed as a fairly decent sample.

    Yes... Also

    Top: 1.93 avg irregular, 1.62 avg impetuous
    Mid: 1.64 avg irregular, 1.47 avg impetuous
    Bot: 1.37 avg irregular, 1.26 avg impetuous

    Seems like the better players during N3 played a noticeable degree more with stuff like Morat Renegades
     
    #111 Mahtamori, Aug 19, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2020
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  12. HellLois

    HellLois What the Hell...Lois?
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    Vere interesting info, great work. Thx!
     
    #112 HellLois, Aug 20, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2020
  13. Triumph

    Triumph Well-Known Member

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    Out of curiosity, how is the game presented in the rulebook? Is the 15 order limit presented there or is it presented to the player as the default in the ITS packet?
     
  14. Armihaul

    Armihaul Well-Known Member

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    is really interesting, but while some factions seem that get better results when they have more orders, having more orders seems to me that is not the main reason to be on top. For example, SEF, SSS or tohaa (below 14, so valid for TW) has better winrate than pano, ariadna or haqq (above 16, over TW)

    Surprised that there are not so good numbers for nomads in the 1/3 of top players, more like they are more constantly in the mid-tier (or even low). Also, seeing how TJC gets worse results for the top players than for the botom ones, but that gets inverted on the botom players.
     
  15. inane.imp

    inane.imp Well-Known Member

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    It's classic nudge-theory.

    Most people play standard ITS with no mods. That's the norm.

    TW - even if you consider it to be better - is outside the norm, so has more resistance than the norm.
     
  16. Teslarod

    Teslarod when in doubt, Yeet

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    As expected there are some massive surprises in the "Without Extra top 33%" Tierlist.
    Faction Match - % of Wins
    1 Yu Jing 83.15%
    2 Starco. Free Company of the Star 81.01%
    3 ALEPH 79.91%
    4 Spiral Corps 79.72%
    5 Druze Bayram Security 79.31%
    6 TOTAL O-12 79.05%
    7 O-12 79.05%
    8 PanOceania 78.72%
    9 Dahshat Company 78.52%
    10 Nomads 78.44%
    11 Shasvastii Expeditionary Force 77.99%
    12 Japanese Secessionist Army 77.95%
    13 TOTAL NA2 77.93%
    14 Operations Subsection of the S.S.S. 77.92%
    15 Tartary Army Corps 77.85%
    16 TOTAL YJ 77.60%
    17 TOTAL Aleph 77.55%
    18 Jurisdictional Command of Bakunin 77.23%
    19 TOTAL Tohaa 77.20%
    20 Tohaa 77.20%
    21 Caledonian Highlander Army 77.12%
    22 Jurisdictional Command of Corregidor 76.64%
    23 Haqqislam 76.61%
    24 Hassassin Bahram 76.60%
    25 TOTAL Nomads 76.54%
    26 TOTAL CA 76.10%
    27 Combined Army 75.95%
    28 TOTAL Ariadna 75.83%
    29 Imperial Service 75.65%
    30 TOTAL Haqq 75.53%
    31 Neoterran Capitaline Army 75.52%
    32 Varuna Immediate Reaction Division 75.15%
    33 TOTAL PanO 74.59%
    34 Ariadna 74.45%
    35 Qapu Khalqi 74.42%
    36 Morat Aggression Force 74.32%
    37 Force de Réponse Rapide Merovingienne 74.24%
    38 Ikari Company 74.22%
    39 Invincible Army 73.91%
    40 Jurisdictional Command of Tunguska 73.68%
    41 Steel Phalanx 73.63%
    42 Military Orders 73.47%
    43 Ramah Taskforce 73.11%
    44 Onyx Contact Force 72.84%
    45 USAriadna Ranger Force 72.48%
    46 Shock Army of Acontecimento 71.60%
    47 Foreign Company 70.27%
    Going by this list YJ Vanilla had the highest potential performance out of any Faction or Sectorial. Grouping is much closer than for the average list. But that again isn't useable data on its own - we literally picked the best results that were available. They're more useful to put in context to overall data or the mid 33%. I'll ignore the bottom 33% for this, that includes all the fun lists, people not really trying, having horrible days or even ragequits and doesn't contribute much if we're looking for data on mechanical performance.
    Faction Match - % of Wins
    1 Foreign Company 63.33%
    2 Combined Army 52.82%
    3 Steel Phalanx 52.81%
    4 PanOceania 52.81%
    5 Qapu Khalqi 52.00%
    6 TOTAL Aleph 51.87%
    7 Tartary Army Corps 51.64%
    8 ALEPH 51.58%
    9 Starco. Free Company of the Star 51.58%
    10 Haqqislam 51.49%
    11 TOTAL Haqq 51.42%
    12 Operations Subsection of the S.S.S. 51.41%
    13 TOTAL Tohaa 51.40%
    14 Tohaa 51.40%
    15 Jurisdictional Command of Corregidor 51.30%
    16 TOTAL CA 51.27%
    17 Ramah Taskforce 51.25%
    18 Hassassin Bahram 51.06%
    19 Varuna Immediate Reaction Division 50.96%
    20 Morat Aggression Force 50.92%
    21 USAriadna Ranger Force 50.81%
    22 Shasvastii Expeditionary Force 50.72%
    23 TOTAL PanO 50.29%
    24 Shock Army of Acontecimento 50.29%
    25 TOTAL Ariadna 50.17%
    26 Caledonian Highlander Army 50.00%
    27 Onyx Contact Force 50.00%
    28 Invincible Army 49.83%
    29 Neoterran Capitaline Army 49.73%
    30 Japanese Secessionist Army 49.30%
    31 Military Orders 49.08%
    32 Ariadna 48.98%
    33 TOTAL NA2 48.93%
    34 Imperial Service 48.65%
    35 Dahshat Company 48.57%
    36 Jurisdictional Command of Tunguska 48.48%
    37 Ikari Company 48.31%
    38 Nomads 48.09%
    39 TOTAL YJ 47.93%
    40 TOTAL Nomads 47.86%
    41 Spiral Corps 45.74%
    42 Druze Bayram Security 45.56%
    43 Force de Réponse Rapide Merovingienne 45.26%
    44 Yu Jing 44.60%
    45 TOTAL O-12 43.70%
    46 O-12 43.70%
    47 Jurisdictional Command of Bakunin 43.20%
    The middle of the road YJ player is bottom 3 all of a sudden. Drawing conclusions from that is kinda hard. Might be YJ is hard to play well for the average player.
    Faction Faction - Wins to Use
    1 ALEPH 58.48%
    2 Dahshat Company 57.52%
    3 Spiral Corps 57.31%
    4 Shasvastii Expeditionary Force 57.09%
    5 Operations Subsection of the S.S.S. 56.62%
    6 Varuna Immediate Reaction Division 55.31%
    7 TOTAL Aleph 54.23%
    8 TOTAL Tohaa 54.14%
    9 Tohaa 54.14%
    10 Ikari Company 51.52%
    11 Caledonian Highlander Army 51.22%
    12 Combined Army 50.06%
    13 Tartary Army Corps 49.28%
    14 Shock Army of Acontecimento 49.16%
    15 Foreign Company 49.15%
    16 TOTAL CA 48.72%
    17 TOTAL Ariadna 47.80%
    18 TOTAL O-12 47.70%
    19 O-12 47.70%
    20 TOTAL PanO 47.61%
    21 TOTAL NA2 47.38%
    22 Steel Phalanx 47.06%
    23 Hassassin Bahram 46.90%
    24 Force de Réponse Rapide Merovingienne 46.55%
    25 Starco. Free Company of the Star 46.55%
    26 Ariadna 46.45%
    27 Ramah Taskforce 46.21%
    28 Neoterran Capitaline Army 45.71%
    29 Yu Jing 45.41%
    30 USAriadna Ranger Force 44.70%
    31 Invincible Army 44.54%
    32 Nomads 44.44%
    33 TOTAL YJ 44.44%
    34 Onyx Contact Force 43.93%
    35 TOTAL Haqq 43.67%
    36 Jurisdictional Command of Bakunin 43.57%
    37 Military Orders 43.40%
    38 Imperial Service 43.22%
    39 Jurisdictional Command of Tunguska 43.11%
    40 TOTAL Nomads 42.82%
    41 Haqqislam 41.91%
    42 Japanese Secessionist Army 41.26%
    43 PanOceania 40.36%
    44 Morat Aggression Force 39.38%
    45 Jurisdictional Command of Corregidor 39.30%
    46 Qapu Khalqi 39.25%
    47 Druze Bayram Security 37.67%
    Vanilla ITS without LI, TW or SOF muddling data. Very useful for comparisons.

    The Tactical Window and Limited Insertion Tierlists are boderline unuseable without context because of all the single and double digit entries for their respective least played formats, here they are anyway:

    Faction Faction - Wins to Use
    1 Combined Army 65.19%
    2 TOTAL O-12 62.75%
    3 O-12 62.75%
    4 ALEPH 61.05%
    5 Invincible Army 53.28%
    6 TOTAL CA 52.49%
    7 TOTAL Aleph 52.19%
    8 Shasvastii Expeditionary Force 51.11%
    9 Military Orders 50.00%
    10 Ramah Taskforce 50.00%
    11 Jurisdictional Command of Tunguska 50.00%
    12 Steel Phalanx 49.28%
    13 Japanese Secessionist Army 48.95%
    14 Neoterran Capitaline Army 48.53%
    15 Varuna Immediate Reaction Division 48.39%
    16 Starco. Free Company of the Star 48.15%
    17 Jurisdictional Command of Bakunin 47.69%
    18 Operations Subsection of the S.S.S. 47.37%
    19 Hassassin Bahram 46.55%
    20 TOTAL PanO 46.49%
    21 Spiral Corps 46.15%
    22 TOTAL YJ 45.85%
    23 Shock Army of Acontecimento 45.45%
    24 TOTAL Nomads 45.07%
    25 Tartary Army Corps 44.52%
    26 TOTAL NA2 44.35%
    27 Morat Aggression Force 43.84%
    28 Ariadna 43.59%
    29 Onyx Contact Force 43.43%
    30 Nomads 43.27%
    31 TOTAL Tohaa 43.21%
    32 Tohaa 43.21%
    33 TOTAL Ariadna 43.04%
    34 TOTAL Haqq 42.16%
    35 USAriadna Ranger Force 41.67%
    36 Dahshat Company 38.89%
    37 Yu Jing 38.75%
    38 Imperial Service 38.33%
    39 Jurisdictional Command of Corregidor 37.14%
    40 Qapu Khalqi 37.04%
    41 Caledonian Highlander Army 33.33%
    42 Force de Réponse Rapide Merovingienne 33.33%
    43 Ikari Company 33.33%
    44 PanOceania 32.14%
    45 Haqqislam 31.25%
    46 Druze Bayram Security 22.73%
    47 Foreign Company 16.67%
    Faction Faction - Wins to Use
    1 Spiral Corps 60.94%
    2 Hassassin Bahram 58.33%
    3 TOTAL Tohaa 57.87%
    4 Tohaa 57.87%
    5 Varuna Immediate Reaction Division 57.41%
    6 Foreign Company 54.55%
    7 Shasvastii Expeditionary Force 50.74%
    8 TOTAL PanO 48.67%
    9 TOTAL NA2 48.51%
    10 ALEPH 48.34%
    11 TOTAL CA 48.15%
    12 TOTAL O-12 48.13%
    13 O-12 48.13%
    14 Operations Subsection of the S.S.S. 47.87%
    15 TOTAL Aleph 47.78%
    16 Yu Jing 47.76%
    17 Combined Army 47.59%
    18 Dahshat Company 47.27%
    19 Ariadna 46.84%
    20 Steel Phalanx 46.59%
    21 Caledonian Highlander Army 45.76%
    22 Military Orders 45.65%
    23 Onyx Contact Force 45.57%
    24 Druze Bayram Security 44.90%
    25 TOTAL YJ 44.31%
    26 Starco. Free Company of the Star 44.12%
    27 Jurisdictional Command of Bakunin 43.55%
    28 Tartary Army Corps 43.13%
    29 TOTAL Ariadna 42.92%
    30 Japanese Secessionist Army 42.77%
    31 Invincible Army 42.62%
    32 TOTAL Haqq 42.59%
    33 Shock Army of Acontecimento 42.55%
    34 Nomads 40.95%
    35 TOTAL Nomads 40.64%
    36 Qapu Khalqi 40.54%
    37 Ikari Company 40.48%
    38 Haqqislam 40.37%
    39 Jurisdictional Command of Corregidor 40.35%
    40 Ramah Taskforce 39.77%
    41 Jurisdictional Command of Tunguska 38.89%
    42 Morat Aggression Force 38.64%
    43 Imperial Service 38.46%
    44 PanOceania 36.59%
    45 USAriadna Ranger Force 36.36%
    46 Force de Réponse Rapide Merovingienne 35.00%
    47 Neoterran Capitaline Army 33.93%

    "The humans involved have basically refused to play the factions" is taking it one step to far.
    People who like Ikari might also simply strongly dislike Limited Insertion. I've ran some numbers played about 2 games LI, made some assumptions, bet a few beers on a local Limited Insertion tourunament and basically called every game after the Lt roll.
    Some people just saw and see Limited Insertion and go "Thanks, I hate it".
    Someone who enjoys playing 20 bodies and 5 Impetuous Orders, might not simply not be a good match to enjoy the coin flip that limited Insertion can be.
     
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  17. SpectralOwl

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    Wow. The swing in potential for Druze is almost as big as the one for Vanilla Yu Jing. I guess that one link that is Druze's whole gimmick must be really good if you know what you're doing.

    Also really surprised at the consistent good placement of Vanilla PanO. That's a weird one to me given that PanO isn't all that versatile compared to most other factions.
     
  18. Mahtamori

    Mahtamori Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like you're just listing reasons someone has decided they refuse to play those factions in LI to me.
     
  19. Armihaul

    Armihaul Well-Known Member

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    The problem with ignoring the botom-tier is that there are also the "not so good players" that are learning, which can help to see if a faction is easier to use or not. But also there might be a higher use of the units that are seen as not so good, which are also part of the "balance of the game".
     
  20. Hecaton

    Hecaton EI Anger Translator

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    IMO the difference is probably proper use of drones. Druze actually makes amazing use of hacking and metal, but it's not what people think if when they think of the sectorial.
     
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