In this thread Active turn numbers for vanilla | Corvus Belli Community Forum, we looked at the odds of success for various long-range shooting options for Vanilla Haqq. Let's look at the options for Hassassins. HB has fewer options than Vanilla, notably we don't have anything that looks like Knauf. So I'd say that in HB, compared to Vanilla, there's a stronger argument for eschewing a long-range gun entirely. But let's not give up just yet - we aren't entirely lacking in options. Assuming that we're spending a lot of orders on a strong group 1 attack piece like an Asawira Spitfire, is there something we can put in group 2 next to the Daylamis, that can use a couple of orders to take shots without leaving our DZ? Let's try to shoot at Armand Le Muet's MSV1 profile. He's a relatively popular ARO piece, is fairly resistant to Fidays, can't just be ignored with smoke, and is fairy easy for the opponent to position somewhere that makes it hard to get within 24" of him. So he seems like a reasonable nemesis for us to shoot at from 32" away. Shakush HMG This is a long-time favorite of mine, and as usual it performs adequately here. 40% to wound Armand, 19% to get wounded, 4% to get wounded twice. Not great odds, but combined with having 3 wounds and an extra order to spend, it should put Armand down slowly but reliably. Shihab Predictably, the Shihab cannot fight Armand. 27% to wound, 39% to get wounded. Linked Ghulam HMG Assuming a pure core link rolling 5 dice on 14s, 44% to wound and 28% to get wounded. Not worth it. Linked Govad HMG The MSV1 helps a lot. In a pure core link, the Govad is 61% to wound, 14% to get wounded. That's pretty good! But, a pure Govad core link it prohibitively expensive. For that price, I don't like the 14% risk - I'd rather take the Shakush for reliability. A more realistic option would be to put the Govad HMG in a mixed haris. Then we're 48% to wound, 23% to get wounded. That's pretty awful, especially given that the mixed haris is still not cheap. Linked Lasiq Ok now we're getting creative. Suppose we decide to make a pure Lasiq core with a viral sniper. Unfortunately, the lethality of viral isn't enough to offset the Lasiq's lack of MSV, and her Mimetism is useless against Armand. 42% to wound, 29% to get wounded. How about the Lasiq Viral Rifle? With the x-visor, it's not as crazy as it sounds. In the 24"-32" range it's actually better than the Viral Marksman Rifle. It's still not enough, though - it turns out the loss of +3 range costs more than the extra B, and this option (still in a pure core) is 36% to wound, 33% to get wounded (worse actually - I accidentally had DAM still set to 15 when I ran that option.). A Lasiq core is also horribly expensive, but I won't bother running the numbers for smaller teams since even a pure core isn't enough to make the Lasiq viable against Armand. Sunduqbut Ok, yeah, this isn't a long-range shooter. I'm including it here on the theory that it might play a similar role in group 2. By starting 8" past the DZ and using camo to get another 8" of movement, in theory it might be able to shoot at Armand using a very small order pool. I'm not sure it's a good idea (it leaves a 50-point model stranded in the midfield) but it's worth considering, and for that we need numbers. The AP Spitfire, using Surprise Attack, is 43% to wound and 18% to get wounded. On subsequent orders, it's 36% to wound, 26% to get wounded. That's... not good... The Viral Rifle (+1B) is a bit harder to use because it needs to get within 16", but assuming we manage it, with Surprise Attack it's 46% to wound, 18% to get wounded. That's surprising. I thought the Viral ammo would be more effective than AP. I guess one save on ARM 1 against DAM 15 is coming out even with two saves on BTS 3 against DAM 14. This seems off to me and I might check it again another day, but I ran it a couple of times just now and the results didn't change. If this is accurate, it really undermines the appeal of viral guns given our good access to AP Spitfires. (Edits in bold as I initially didn't account for +1Dam on the Sunduqbut). In any case, none of the Sunduqbut options are any good against Armand. Conclusion The Shakush HMG is the only group 2 shooter capable of fighting Armand. If you don't bring a Shakush, be prepared to spend some orders getting someone into 24" to fight him.
Could Asawira linked with Yara (for extra 8'' of strategic deployment) be considered for this comparison?
Now let's try shooting at a Taigha Creature. Units like the Taigha are the reason I like to have a long-range gun in my list. If I don't, the opponent will start to get cheeky with his attack pieces. Taighas will charge up the board willy-nilly and I'll have to spend a bunch of orders getting rid of them on my turn. I like to have something in group 2 that can take care of those problems without cutting into my main order pool. A Shihab is 63% to wound a dodging Taigha. A Shakush is 77%. A pure core linked Govad is 83%. Honestly, the Shihab is plenty here. What about a similar but more slippery target, a Daturazi? It's going to throw smoke, and the Shihab is 47% to wound, Shakush is 60% to wound. Against the linked Govad, the Daturazi has to dodge and the wound is 88%. Hell, even an unlinked Govad is 76%. Conclusion: for shooting at dodging targets without mimetism, any long-range shooter will do fine. Even against a target with mimetism, they're all decent, but the best option is the Govad HMG. No need to pay a premium to put her in a link, against targets of opportunity she's quite fine on her own. Govad HMG is trash against strong AROs, but deadly against weak targets. Is she... the Knauf of HB? Knauf is only 78% to take out the dodging Daturazi (although his range is longer than the Govad's).
Where is my Bokhtar at? (Oh wait, didn't real that this was for Group 2 secondary gunners, though idk that I'd qualify a Shakush as a Group 2 secondary gunner!)
Strategic Deployment only gives 4", sadly. That said, the reason I didn't include Yara or the Asawira is that I'm assuming that if I bring them, they're in group 1. Also, because they're in a link I can't keep them as my reserve, which means that Armand can deploy in a spot where they'll have a lot of trouble getting into 24" of him. Yup, Yara, Asawira, and Bokhtar all belong in a different, future thread :-) For now I'm assuming that any of them would be a good option if they get within 24" of Armand, but that if I have something in group 2 to take care of Armand, I can use the active group 1 shooters for other tasks.
It's my preferred use for the Shakush HMG. What I like about the Shakush is that it's cheap enough not to be the focus of a list the way most TAGs are. It sits in the DZ taking shots at targets of opportunity (e.g. Daylamis once they've been revealed) without spending group 1 orders, and also acts as an ARO piece. If the opponent wants to kill it, they definitely can but it will take them a lot of orders and doing so doesn't reduce the group 1 order pool. If they don't, then on turn 2 or 3 it can move into group 1 and advance.
Thank you! I've fixed it, but it only changed one number (viral rifle goes from 43% to 46% to wound). Otherwise the impact was <1%.
