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HB 16-24" shooting numbers

Discussion in 'Haqqislam' started by QueensGambit, Sep 29, 2022.

  1. QueensGambit

    QueensGambit Chickenbot herder

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    In a previous thread, we ran the numbers on HB's long-range shooters, using Armand Le Muet and a Taigha as targets. But, we all know the long range isn't HB's strong suit. Let's assume we can get something into 24" range of Armand, and see how the options stack up.

    Asawira AP Spitfire

    The perennial favourite. By himself, he's 38% to wound Armand, 24% to get wounded, 7% to get wounded twice. That's pretty bad.

    Put him in a haris and it's 44%-22%-6%, still bad. In a core, it's 48%-19%-5%.

    Yara Haddad

    By herself, Yara is 47% to wound, 16% to get wounded. Much better than the Asawira thanks to her MSV2, although she's more vulnerable to bad luck since a single wound is enough to put her unconscious.

    In a haris she's 55%-13%, not really much better, and in a core, 59%-11%.

    Let's try her in a haris and shooting through smoke (giving Armand a -3 due to his MSV1): 63%-7%. Still some risk, but by far the best option so far.

    Bokhtar Red Fury

    40% to wound, 19% to get wounded, 5% to get wounded twice. So, only slightly better than a solo Asawira and a little worse than an Asawira in a haris. Interesting considering all the talk about what a great gunfighter the Bokhtar is. Admittedly, she may have an easier time getting into 24" of Armand than the Asawira would.

    Nadhir AP MMR

    Yes this is a profile that exists! But it's no good against Armand - 26% to wound, 26% to get wounded. Surprise Attack would improve the odds slightly, but the Nadhir is unlikely to be able to Surprise Attack within 24" of Armand.

    Lasiq Viral MMR

    Even in a pure core, only 45% to wound, 25% to get wounded. Much worse in a more realistic fireteam.

    Sunduqbut AP Spitfire

    We already checked this one: The AP Spitfire, using Surprise Attack, is 43% to wound and 18% to get wounded. On subsequent orders, it's 36% to wound, 26% to get wounded. That's... not good...


    Conclusion

    Wow... we don't have a lot that can reliably take out Armand. The only one of these fights I'd be happy taking is Yara in a haris through smoke. Even then, I don't like the 7% risk. Maybe we should just send McMurrough to Chain Rifle him?
     
  2. Brokenwolf

    Brokenwolf Well-Known Member

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    Armand definitely feels like something you template with a Fiday. Once you wound him, he is much more manageable.

    What about a linked Bokhtar in a Haris?

    Also, I feel like an Avatar and other tags feel like they are getting more common being left out on ARO. Would you mind running the numbers? Thank you for doing all this math!
     
  3. QueensGambit

    QueensGambit Chickenbot herder

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    If I have the math right, two templates are 80% to wound at least once, but he's dodging on a 9 so you only have a 55% chance to hit him, so overall 44% to wound. If you fail, he turns around and can Nanopulser the Fiday next time. I think it's probably the best bet, yeah - still not great, though. Another option would be to Stealth the Fiday into sil contact to lock him up and just sit there, or then send in McMurrough for B2 CC.

    45% to wound, 17% to get wounded, 5% to get wounded twice. Only marginally better than the Asawira haris, for a much, much higher point cost.

    I definitely think TAGs should be left out on ARO. You're paying for all that armor, you need to get value for it. If you just want to use them in the active turn, you're better off with an HI.

    Against the Avatar, I'm gonna guess that only Yara is viable. In a haris, shooting through smoke: 44% to wound, 11% to wound twice, 2% to wound thrice, 7% to get wounded. Should take around 6 orders, which is a lot of 7% risks.

    Asawira in a haris is 23% to wound, 38% to get wounded, and I'm not gonna bother running the numbers on anything that doesn't have AP.

    Other TAGs will be easier, but honestly I doubt I'd want to shoot at any main battle tag with anything in HB. It'll take too many orders, and when you finally wound it it'll just Guts to safety. We have better tools to deal with TAGs. A Barid in the active turn is 34% to Isolate the Avatar. McMurrough in CC is 76%-45%-9% to wound up to 3 times, 9% to get wounded, and the Avatar can't see through smoke. Ghazi with an E/Marat also comes to mind.
     
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  4. QueensGambit

    QueensGambit Chickenbot herder

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    An ARO that I have a very hard time against is Phoenix. In a link, he's BS 14, B2, Mim(-6), Sixth Sense. With ARM 3 and NWI, if I manage to do a wound he just goes prone and gets doctored on his turn. So I need to either wound him quickly (so that my opponent is spending more orders on him than I am), or do two wounds. He's also highly resistant to other methods like Fidays.

    Haris Asawira

    28% to wound, 34% to get wounded. Ouch! If the Asawira gets into the 8-16" range, it's 37% to wound, 25% to get wounded, which is still pretty terrible.

    Bokhtar Red Fury

    34% to wound, 21% to get wounded. Still pretty terrible. If she gets into 8-16", it's 45%-12%, which is starting to look ok.

    Shakush HMG

    25% to wound, 31% to get wounded.

    Lasiq Viral Sniper

    What if we outrange Phoenix? Nope, outside 32" the Lasiq is still only on 6's to his 5's, for 31%-21%.

    Haris Yara

    The problem is that Sixth Sense negates smoke penalties, so Yara's only benefit is to see through Phoenix's mimetism. 38%-23%. That's not good, especially since she only has one wound. If she gets into 8-16", it's 51%-14%.


    Conclusion

    Wow, we really don't have anything that wants to fight Phoenix. Pitcher-GML is looking better and better. Otherwise, our best option is probably to launch smoke near him, move Yara into the 16" range, and shoot him from there. But that's a lot of orders and will still only wound him, so he'll be back next turn. And it carries a 14% risk of losing Yara.
     
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  5. Gwynbleidd

    Gwynbleidd Non asto coram malo

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    A very interesting thread, many thanks as I am soon to go back to my haqqi and will be running a few HB lists to start. It’ll be my first foray into haqqi since early N3. Ramah will come later (an excuse to paint my maggy).

    You’ve all given me a few units to consider here given what I’ll use them for, so thanks! The bokhtar and asawira link may come out to play and I’ll have to think about my lasiqs, especially against someone like phoenix. My yara will have to come out to play though, she’s been painted for a while and deserves a game.

    Thank you again for the statistics on our longer range units! They’ll be put to good use.
     
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  6. Methuselah

    Methuselah Well-Known Member

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    Fiday can do it (but not consistently). If you're able to drop a mine outside LoF then do the old fork ARO and its risk free. Otherwise, you can walk into BTB and double template for a 30% to do 2 wounds (the fiday would be ~91% to die in that trade, so not great). GML is great against everything in SP that's not Ajax. You should just oblivion him.
     
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  7. Urobros

    Urobros Well-Known Member

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    Hello fellow Haquisslam players (hassasin in this case XD)

    I think you take a good point here, about the pitcher, but not only for GML. Less risk, of course, but I think not so worthy to put down things like Phoenix with Six Sense, one dice against one, to 18 against 14 or 13 :(. But, if you are capable to place a pitcher and marked him, then you can uprise the odds for any model. Think in Yara shooting 4 shoots to Phoenix on 16 instead of 13s, if we are too inside the 8''-16'' band, Phoenix will shoot us back on 11s, could this do the trick?
     
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  8. QueensGambit

    QueensGambit Chickenbot herder

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    Even in the 16-24 range, if Phoenix is Targeted, Yara is 52% to wound, 14% to get wounded. If she gets into 8-16, she's 62%-9%.

    Could be a good option if they've already taken out your GML, although Steel Phalanx is unlikely to have done that. The GML shot is 63% to wound, so nearly identical to Yara's best numbers but with no risk of getting hurt in return, no need to move into range, and you can keep doing it after Phoenix goes prone. So you'll never take the shot with Yara if your GML is still on the table.
     
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