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Can pano be beaten? Yes, by almost everybody!

Discussion in 'OOC' started by Cabaray, Jul 14, 2018.

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  1. Cabaray

    Cabaray Well-Known Member
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    Greetings Kurage fans,

    I sure love this campaign and the new mechanics that they brought along. Ariadna already floats #kurageonhardmode because of opponents who score 4 or even 5 points per victory. Making us work damn hard to defend our base. It gives all the factions a chance for the crown. Cause every last campaign we were like: Man, those Pano Boys sure have the numbers and win every damn time. But not any longer. So the question arises, with the new mechanics, can Pano be beaten.

    We are now in phase 2 and factions are hard at work defending or attacking bases. Pano, being the Hyperpower is attacking yu jing, keeping their own base at a modest 40 points.

    Lets compare that to the other factions output:

    First lets see the ones with only 3 points to a victory:
    - The Combined Army has brought 29 points focused on Aplekton, if they tried to go in on Pano then 29 versus 40 would fall short. Sorry aliens, you have to try a bit harder. But they have to work with 3 points per victory, so they might be a prime factions to get a boost next time.
    - Hag Islam brings 43 points as of now, so they would lead on pano, but only just. Which is reasonable cause they are almost equal in output with the Hyperpower.
    - The Nomads are bringing it with 52 points, which would beat Panos 40 without a sweat.
    - Ariadna has got 36 points on the Aleph base and would have made a serious dent in Pano. their own base is under siege with 69, which would take out pano with no sweat.

    So most of the 3 point factions still have oompf without a boost, but Combined needs a little something something to stay in the race next year.

    Lets check the 4 point group
    - Aleph is a faction who has received such a boost, and they have put out a wopping 55 points. They would overrun Pano in no time, with a solid lead. they have been very competitive because of the boost.
    - Yu Jing has 31 and are already fighting pano who is in their base. But the race is neck a neck.
    - NA-2 has 40, which is exactly the same size as the pano base.

    So the 4 points make this group have a chance in battle.

    Now we have the biggest boost of them all: the 5 points Tohaa

    With 61 points, they would overrun Pano with flying colors. They are now competing with us, the big dogs in this fight and given us a hell of a fight. But if they would have chosen any other faction, they would have swamped them. so 5 might be a bit to much if they are not fighting the biggest faction at that time. If tohaa needs to keep its 5, it probably needs to fight the biggest faction every time.

    So that was a bit of speculation of my part. Mostly I like the changes. The 4 is good on the factions. Combined could have needed it. 5 might be a bit much or not if you fight a big opponent with it.
     
    Melchior and Golem2God like this.
  2. AdmiralJCJF

    AdmiralJCJF Heart of the Hyperpower
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    Of course we can be.

    We are the 6th largest faction.

    Down from 2nd largest last year.

    As the Combined Army proves, size of player base still matters.
     
    Danger Rose and Dragonstriker like this.
  3. gnyf

    gnyf Professionel Carouser & Malingerer
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    It should take active players into account. Not how many registered. The system is a but weak this year. The Combined Army should have had the same point bonus as Tohaa. Still think it’s a crazy output.
     
  4. cazboab

    cazboab Member (phrasing)

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    I actually think PanO is performing admirably under the conditions you find yourselves in this year.

    You're barely behind YuJing in points dispite the fact you're earning 25% less points for a win, tied with haqqislam who, agian you earn less than. If it turns out that the bonus points are only motivational and the AI historian counts in 3s only, PanO might actually be in second place...

    Plus PanO has held it's zones mostly, while taking the YuJing base for about 48 hours, so you're probably looking at the 'most dominant' award this year, which would be interesting because we'd essentially be trading places...

    Edit: if PanO scored 4 points per win, they'd still hold the YuJing bunker, and they'd be only 47 points behind ariadna for overall lead....
     
    #4 cazboab, Jul 14, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2018
    Thandar and AdmiralJCJF like this.
  5. AdmiralJCJF

    AdmiralJCJF Heart of the Hyperpower
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    We held the Firebase for 4 days.
    But, otherwise, yes we have performed admirably.
    Strong internal culture and a supportive environment count for a lot.
    Considering our overall numbers it has been a good campaign.
     
    Foxep and cazboab like this.
  6. Skjarr

    Skjarr EI Mouthpiece

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    Apologies for the abysmal formatting, I'm on my phone.

    A few quick figures:
    Not only have Ariadna played the most games they have been the most effective with a win ratio of 0.59.
    CA have played the 3rd fewest games and have been by far the least effective with a win ratio of 0.37.
    Whilst Tohaa are the smallest by a distance they are behind only Ariadna in effectiveness with a win ratio of 0.54.

    Faction W L D Total Players W/R
    ********************************************
    CA 143 223 18 384 257 0.37

    Aleph 164 147 19 330 213 0.50

    Ariadna 365 231 23 619 342 0.59

    Haqq 211 251 19 481 307 0.44

    NA-2 231 275 28 534 355 0.43

    Nomads 253 326 37 616 447 0.41

    PanO 264 234 19 517 302 0.51

    Tohaa 94 68 13 165 109 0.54

    Yu Jing 208 178 22 408 253 0.50
     
  7. Spleen

    Spleen Well-Known Member

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    It's easy to beat Pan O, they throw games to manipulate results
     
  8. cazboab

    cazboab Member (phrasing)

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    Another thing the stats have just under the surface is the impact of the asymmetric scoring this year.

    By calculating the scores as ( wins * 3 )+ draws ignoring the fact that certain reports will be discounted:
    Ariadna 1127
    pano 811
    nomads 796
    NA2 721
    Haqqislam 682
    YuJing 646
    Aleph 511
    CA 447
    Tohaa 295

    All three top spots only lose the 9 points for the starting bumps since they score 3 per win, na2 also lose 9 but since they scored 4 for every win they'd drop from second place to forth, haqqislam and YuJing go from keeping pace with most of the pack to fighting for the middle of the scoreboard aleph and CA pretty much unchanged but the Tohaa fade into the bottom slot...

    I think this shows that the score bonuses help, but they're by no means an insurmountable advantage, at least this time. There's still a discussion on how the bonus points were assigned though, and I really can't see any reason why NA2 should have been scoring 4 points when they've been the second or third largest faction for most of the campaign...
     
  9. psychoticstorm

    psychoticstorm Aleph's rogue child
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    Inflammatory comments are not appreciated, if someone has proof, PM me or another member of the Kurage moderation team.
     
  10. eciu

    eciu Easter worshiper

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    Because those points were assigned "a priori" anyone knew how many players each faction will have. Mods probably thought that NA2 won't be largest party here.

    PanO can be easily beaten. It's no longer "biggest" faction (it wasn't even at the end of Wotan).
     
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  11. cazboab

    cazboab Member (phrasing)

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    I think you probably hit the nail on the head there. The main issue is that it very quickly became evident that the prediction was wrong, and correcting it early could have changed the face of the campaign, particularly given the delay in confirming that only one of the two zones was exclusive...
    Depending on how and when you measure biggest, PanOs playerbase was either just above or right about even with the nomads in wotan. But given that they're the fifth largest this year and currently 15 points ahead of the largest, that doesn't seem to matter much...
     
    A Mão Esquerda likes this.
  12. Brother Smoke

    Brother Smoke Bureau Trimurti Representative

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    The biggest advantage Tohaa have right now is the fact that they don't have anything to defend so they can throw themselves head first into attack
    There are very few of them so they wouldn't have been able to put up as good a fight as they have if it weren't for that fact and their 5-points-a-win schema

    I would say that puts them in a good spot, where they are a credible threat without being a steamroller (heck, I would advocate for giving them a slight boost)

    The CA situation maybe indicates that the points-per-victory amount should be something that is adjusted depending on turnout rather than a set amount. It would make things a bit more complicated but nobody can tell the future
     
    cazboab likes this.
  13. Solar

    Solar Well-Known Member

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    It is very difficult to make things fair between the factions, because playerbase makes things unfair, can't be predicted with real accuracy, and you need to put mitigating factors in that promote play, make sure everyone is welcome, and make things balanced.

    I sympathise with BoW. They are not in an easy position!
     
  14. cazboab

    cazboab Member (phrasing)

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    BoW didn't have anything to do with this, IIRC @warzan can correct me if I'm wrong but CB decided the points etc this time, BoW only provided the toolset to run it...
     
  15. A Mão Esquerda

    A Mão Esquerda Deputy Hexahedron Officer

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    From what I understand, it's an evolving process, with lessons learned being applied each year going forward. Wotan was a progression from Flamestrike, as Kurage is from Wotan.
     
  16. cazboab

    cazboab Member (phrasing)

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    If that was wrong we'd certainly be having a lot less fun, but there was definitely mention of BoW only doing the technical side of things this year while CB's mod team was handling the rulsey stuff...
     
  17. AdmiralJCJF

    AdmiralJCJF Heart of the Hyperpower
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    What a good conversation this horribly hostile and nastily faction targeting thread has produced.
     
  18. warzan

    warzan Well-Known Member

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    @cazboab Yep that's correct :)

    We are getting to the stage now where we can just provide the platform and tools and the great teams behind the games (developers and volunteers) can run the rules and 'game'

    We still watch very closely though to see what we can change or add to the platform for future events though, so it's not just a pure technical exercise :)
     
  19. Aspect Graviton

    Aspect Graviton Friendly Alien Overlord
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    Rather than a flat bonus a floating modifier may work better in future some quick sketches for this:

    Method 1: factions requiring a bonus gain a bonus of +2 for their first 2 reports in an area per day then +1 for the next 3 then +0 for the rest, perhaps you modify the bonus or the duration by the size of the faction so for example Tohaa receive a +2 for their first 5 games per day while Ariadna as a larger faction only get it for the first 2, a method like this would also discourage hording reports and make those rogue reports in each area make more of a difference.

    Method 2: as above however extend the length of the bonus point period and make it over the entire map for the day adding a bit more strategy to it (hell maybe even endorse report holding and have factions que-up releases, it'd be one way of sorting the problem).

    Method 3: faction leaders or CB decide where the bonus is applied setting 'target locations'

    Nothing here is saying that these bonuses have to be constant or whole numbers either (simply rounding up or down), having the bonus float based on games played the day before by faction (so more games played = less bonus) would work as a balancing aid and be affected by activity of the playerbase (pretty sure CA have considerably less active players than they do sign ups). and modifying a +2 bonus to a 1.5 would make a big difference to the scores.
     
  20. cazboab

    cazboab Member (phrasing)

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    Ideally the bonuses would be exactly enough to give each faction the same score every day the same way that a handicap in horse racing or golf should have everyone finishing the same.

    Obviously the zero sum game would be very very boring.

    The situation we have now isn't perfect, but it's not terribly broken, it could have been if a few things had happened differently, but it's working fine.

    The one big change I'd make to the score bonuses is I'd apply the bonus on the hour or a few times a day in bulk rather than on every report, this would disguise the bonus and make it harder to account for.
     
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