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BS Statistical Cheat Sheet

Discussion in 'Nomads' started by Tom McTrouble, Mar 21, 2018.

  1. Tom McTrouble

    Tom McTrouble Well-Known Member

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    Nomad exclusive first look.

    Hey all,

    Hopefully I'm not duplicating anyone's efforts with this, but I finally pulled together something I've wanted to do for a long time. This is a visual cheat sheet for your success chance in a BS exchange. You can extrapolate it to other face to faces also.

    A few notes, success chance in this scenario is the chance that you will get at least one successful roll in the face to face exchange, canceling all of your opponents rolls. This does not account for armor or multiple successes. The charts display your success chance based on the opponents BS, with each data set in the chart representing a different BS as the active player.

    If you have questions or comments, feel free to let me know. I would love to get a more comprehensive guide together to improve our collective gameplay. Cheers.

    Edit: excel sheet https://www.dropbox.com/s/9ipchwunhohf46n/Infinity Stats.xlsx?dl=0
     

    Attached Files:

    #1 Tom McTrouble, Mar 21, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2018
    inane.imp and loricus like this.
  2. loricus

    loricus Satellite Druid

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    Cool! You can see the crit chance "baseline" based on burst. Also just how dramatic BS can be, especially showing Marksmanship X in action.

    When you apply this to troops remember that game circumstances change the numbers drastically. In my experience the troop that takes the most dangerous exchanges is the Intruder HMG, unintuitive because it is one of the best gunners in the game. While the barebones Hellcat are usually only stopped by enemy armor rolls and hardly take shots back until they go reactive.

    Why? An excavation company has a series of drills. The hardest, most durable drill needs to be replaced the most often. It is the most durable because they need it for the hardest earth, which is also the cause of the wear. The same is true for the Intruder HMG. When your reason to exist is to trump the strongest things you get the strongest things returning fire.

    Comparatively, the Hellcat gets to choose their position before activation. This means they can more often get things out of cover and get behind line of sights. This makes their BS often higher than an Intruder (plus avoiding cover ARM) and prevents shots back, actually making them more lethal and safer than the Intruder in action.

    Another example is the Intruder MULTI Sniper. She relies on either the extended rangeband to reduce opposing BS to near or at 0 or targets otherwise helpless enemies.


    Anyways, numbers are great to build an intuition so you don't make bad orders. But nothing beats experience! So don't come to conclusions, come to hypotheses.
     
  3. inane.imp

    inane.imp Well-Known Member

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    You're graphing too many variables.

    Effective BS 8-15 vs 8-15 gives you the most common range. There's outliers at either end but they're largely 'win more' or 'lose harder'. But this is the range where you actually need fidelity.

    Reactive burst is either 1, 2 or 4 (Mk12 Sin-Eater is literally the only B3 ARO).

    B4 is basically TR Bot (with or without MML2), Chaksa or Sin-Eater HMG you'd be better off modelling these 4 options than a generic B4 ARO. And honestly the biggest factor in these is crit chance: they're all on minimum of ~17% to wound. They're all scenarios that you should test in the dice calculator to get a specific feel for.

    So I'd build it at 3 primary sheets.
    BS 8-15 vs BS 8-15 B1 vs B1. (this is used for working out the likelihood of being able to cancel an ARO by throwing 1 dice at it in a split burst)
    BS 8-15 vs BS 8-15 B3 vs B1. (standard odds for active vs reactive, B4 weapons are estimated from this)
    BS 8-15 vs BS 8-15 B3 vs B2. (standard odds vs links)
     
  4. loricus

    loricus Satellite Druid

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    It is a lot easier to just give out the data and not analyze it. That's a much bigger projects.

    And B3 AROs are very common since rifles are capable of it. :p

    Also total reaction Combi exists, as well as the odd Ariadna one.
     
  5. inane.imp

    inane.imp Well-Known Member

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    Completely forgot Suppression Fire. Derp.
     
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  6. Tom McTrouble

    Tom McTrouble Well-Known Member

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    I can upload the excel file so people can delete or add data as they see fit. Personally I think it is good to have the wider BS range data displayed to cover two TO units shooting at each other. I also find the vs burst 4 data incredibly valuable since I suspect we will all run into TR bots with some consistency.
     
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