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2019 in Numbers - ITS data analysis

Discussion in 'Access Guide to the Human Sphere' started by Ieldin Soecr, Jan 23, 2020.

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  1. Ieldin Soecr

    Ieldin Soecr Well-Known Member

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    Hey everybody,

    with 2019 done and dusted it might be at the time to look back onto last years ITS and what has happened there.
    As data analyst by profession, I took the time to collect the publicly available data from ITS and threw them together in an analytical software. So lets get into it.

    DISCLAMIER:
    • I only collected the publicly available data, so private events are not within my data pool.
    • Events I analysed have their event date set between the 01.01.2019 and the 31.12.2019.
    • Events contain data for tournaments leagues and oneshots.
    • I excluded events that have not been flagged as reported, as well as events that have faulty data (example: An event where the VP where entered as OP)

    IMPORTANT:
    I'm pretty confident that the data I use are correct, but cannot be 100% certain. Because of this take all the results I present with a grain of salt.
    Also do not use the data presented here to jump to any conclusions. This is a highly aggregated view on the data, so trying to make specific statements like "Unit A is overpowered because it has a high pick rate" is not responsible.


    Event Data

    For a start let us begin by looking at the general event data. First of we have a row on KPIs:

    [​IMG]

    • #Events: Total number of events.
    • #Participants: Total number of participants.
    • #Distinct Participants: Total number of persons that took part in at least one event.
    • Avg Participants: Number of participants per event
    • Participation Rate: How many participants took part in an event compared to the maximal number of players for that event

    As you can see the game is in a healthy state. With an average of 77 events per month, a playerbase of nearly 4000 people with each playing close to 3 events that year.

    [​IMG]

    Of all the events played tournaments still are the most popular type, with league and oneshot not very prominent (Especially after league has been removed with ITS11). I think most oneshots are private, so I they are not included in my data.

    [​IMG]

    Like in the last years USA and Spain have the highest number of events, followed by Russia, Germany, Canada and the UK. Notice that Russia has overtaken Germany for 3th place showing the fast growing tournament scene there.

    [​IMG]

    Smaller events with <20 players still account, for the majority with 81% of the total. The majority also uses no special. Of the specials SPECOPS is the most popular followed by SoF. Limited Insertion and Tactical Window are close together, which shows that TW has been received very well by the community, as it only existed for 3 months.

    [​IMG]

    More simple missions like Supplies, Acquisition and Frontline still are the most often played. Countermeasures has had a great start being chosen 115 times in only months. Sadly Custom missions are still rarely taken :cry:



    Faction Data

    With the event informations out of the way lets dive into the Faction data. It has to be noted, that the faction a player is participating with is only available if he has uploaded his lists to the event.

    [​IMG]

    As it can be seen, most of the new sectorials are very popular, often the most played sectorials per faction and overall. Except for the discontinued sectorials and the mixed NA2 armies, every faction seems to have a good playerbase, ranging between 100-200.

    [​IMG]

    To explain this metric, it is the average ranking of the players of the faction compared to the total number of players in an event. For example getting first in a 10 man tournament would be a 0.1, while first in a 20 man tournament would be 0.05. I did this to account for the different event sizes to make the results comparable. Because the ranking value can never be 0 the total average is 0.54, with a lower number being better.

    [Units per Faction]

    This list contains the units used for each faction based on the frequency they are used in lists. The List includes the following Data:
    • % List contains: percentage of lists, of that faction, that contain at least one model of that unit
    • Total Picks: Shows how often the unit is taken overall
    • Distinct Picks: Shows how many different profiles are used of that unit
    • # Picks per List: If the unit is contained in a list, how often it is taken
    • # Lists: Number of lists that contain that unit

    As you can see pick rates differ strongly between the different factions. In general it can be said that vanilla forces, because of their wider range of units, have lower pick rates for specific units compared to sectorial armies. It is also very interesting to see how pick rates for units change between vanilla and different sectorials (e.g. ORC troops in PanO compared to NCA or Varuna).

    I hope you liked this short dive into the 2019 ITS data. If you have any questions or would like to see a more specific analysis of something (Most popular TAG played, Specials played in USA, etc.) feel free to ask, I will try to put it together.

    AGAIN IMPORTANT:
    I'm pretty confident that the data I use are correct, but cannot be 100% certain. Because of this take all the results I present with a grain of salt.
    Also do not use the data presented here to jump to any conclusions. This is a highly aggregated view on the data, so trying to make specific statements like "Unit A is overpowered because it has a high pick rate" is not responsible.

    Edit:
    Here are some of the additional analysis scattered around this thread:

    [Profile Pickrate]

    Breakdown of the list on Profile level. Units are now sorted alphabeticaly and profiles by pickrate.

    [​IMG]

    The average TP / Max TP for Tournament per Faction. The higher means the more of the possible max TP where actually acieved.

    [​IMG]

    A little more complex metric. It is the % of wins for a faction devided by the % of usage. The higher the number the more wins are achieved per paticipant compared to others.


    [​IMG]

    Number of minor and mayor wins to losses per faction. Draws are not included.
     
    #1 Ieldin Soecr, Jan 23, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2020
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  2. Freki

    Freki Well-Known Member

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    Right, I hope CB do this work, and look into units not being picked as a good indicator. More interesting for them is to perform basket analysis.
    But I am fairly sure there are profiles that must have seen less than 10 occurrences.

    Also, big congratulation for this piece of work. Nice crunching ;)
     
    #2 Freki, Jan 23, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2020
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  3. ev0k

    ev0k Well-Known Member

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    You did a pretty solid work. Your worksheet with the units is pretty impressive. KUDOS !!
     
    Abydog likes this.
  4. Sedral

    Sedral White Banner Officier

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    very interesting, thanks for your work! I'm curious about that one JSA guy who apparently didn't get the memo about the uprising though :joy:
     
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  5. Mahtamori

    Mahtamori Well-Known Member

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    A few things stand out to me, besides the Yu Jing JSA;
    1. How the most recent factions are largely overrepresented
    2. Surprisingly how well community consensus seem to match data on which factions are strong.
    3. How a faction's strength seem to cause players to gravitate towards it
    3b. How several of the newest factions perform relatively well
    4. Ooof, Ramah didn't seem to be well received at all.
    5. And this deserves a highlight, how no faction is hopelessly underperforming. Except Japanese Sectorial Army. Sheesh, that faction is terrible.
     
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  6. Ayadan

    Ayadan Knight of the TAG Order

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    I think you have found the only one worthy to be a first class citizen. Loyal to the bitter end.
     
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  7. Armihaul

    Armihaul Well-Known Member

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    Just great work there

    Just a suggestion, if you still have the data and can do new metrics. Why not an average by faction of points obtained in tournament. Obviously there would be needed a fix for tournaments with different number of rounds. Maybe go for a percent of max aviable points (a 3 rounds tournament would be 9 points for the 100%, a 4 rounds would be 12 and so)

    Also a metric comparing the wining % of each faction with their % of use. I think that could be easy
     
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  8. Ceilican

    Ceilican Well-Known Member

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    Data analysis is a part of my job as well, so this is supremely interesting to me. I just did a quick check on the spreadsheet, and i'm seeing stuff I didn't actually expect. For instance - All Five Yuan Yuan profiles are represented in QK. I'd love to see a percentage breakdown of that to see which profiles are used most often (not that this is particularly a huge mystery). Al-Fasid don't see much use, but both profiles see use. So which one is more popular and by how much?
     
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  9. Marduck

    Marduck Well-Known Member

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    One question thought, I see 23 tournaments in 2019 for France in the ITS event section (34 in 2018 ... Damn we are on the falling side. Curious I don't get why ...).

    Why only 19 taken into account ?
     
  10. Mahtamori

    Mahtamori Well-Known Member

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    Going over the Yu Jing side of data and frankly there's very little that's surprising except that someone actually used Combi Rifle Shaolin, that Lucien is so unpopular in ISS, and that Tai Sheng seem a bit unpopular in vanilla. I also notice that I personally made an impact on the Shang-Ji list population uptick in IA by using a double-AHD list to a tournament.
    It's frankly a bit saddening how there's nothing that breaks the norm other than the two rogue Shaolin profiles.

    They might not have been (properly) registered in the OTM? Several 10+ people events I've personally participated in weren't registered in the OTM.

    ---

    And going over O-12's numbers what strikes me is how very consistently some units are picked. You can even make a damned tournament ready list by only picking from the top picks;

    Order roughly by popularity, loadouts are pure guesswork
    ──────────────────────────────────────────────────

    GROUP 1[​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]10 [​IMG]3
    ALPHA Lieutenant (Strategos L2) 2 Light Shotguns, 2 Nanopulsers / Pistol, DA CC Weapon. (0 | 26)
    VARANGIAN Light Shotgun, Chain Rifle, Smoke Grenades / Pistol, AP CC Weapon. (0 | 12)
    VARANGIAN Submachine Gun, Chain Rifle, Smoke Grenades / Pistol, AP CC Weapon. (0 | 12)
    VARANGIAN Submachine Gun, 2 Chain-colt, Smoke Grenades / Pistol, AP CC Weapon. (0 | 13)
    GANGBUSTER Hacker (Killer Hacking Device) Submachine Gun, MadTrap / Pistol, Knife. (0 | 21)
    GANGBUSTER Combi Rifle + Light Riotstopper, MadTrap / Pistol, Knife. (0 | 23)
    SIRIUS Hacker (Assault Hacking Device) Submachine Gun + 1 SiriusBot / Pistol, Knife. (0.5 | 25)
    [​IMG] SIRIUSBOT Heavy Riotstopper / Electric Pulse. (0 | 5)
    SIRIUS (Forward Observer) Boarding Shotgun, D-Charges + 1 SiriusBot / Pistol, Knife. (0 | 24)
    [​IMG] SIRIUSBOT Heavy Riotstopper / Electric Pulse. (0 | 5)
    EPSILON HMG, Nanopulser / Pistol, Knife. (1.5 | 30)
    LAMBDA Doctor (MediKit) Combi Rifle / Pistol, Knife. (0 | 16)
    YUDBOT Electric Pulse. (0 | 3)
    YUDBOT Electric Pulse. (0 | 3)

    GROUP 2[​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]4
    KYTTÄ Flash Pulse, Sniffer / Electric Pulse. (0 | 8)
    LYNX MULTI Sniper, Antipersonnel Mines / Pistol, Knife. (1.5 | 34)
    CYBERGHOSTS Hacker(Hacking Device Plus) Combi Rifle + Pitcher / Breaker Pistol, Electric Pulse. (0.5 | 26)
    DELTA Boarding Shotgun, Panzerfaust / Pistol, Knife. (0 | 23)

    4 SWC | 299 Points

    Open in Infinity Army

    On a personal note while my initial lists basically looked like this I have started migrating away from Sirius and Gangbuster as auto-includes

    P.s. it's funny how no one has submitted a list with Epsilon Marksman Rifle.
     
    #10 Mahtamori, Jan 23, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2020
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  11. Ieldin Soecr

    Ieldin Soecr Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    The average TP / Max TP for Tournament per Faction. The higher means the more of the possible max TP where actually acieved.

    [​IMG]
    A little more complex metric. It is the % of wins for a faction devided by the % of usage. The higher the number the more wins are achieved per paticipant compared to others.
     
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  12. Spitfire_TheCat

    Spitfire_TheCat Feel the Wrath of the Miezi-Bot

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    Really appreciate your work.

    Just one quick question: Are the sectorials listed in the same order as in the army builder? Because for Nomads all of them are called ... "Jurisdiction ..."
    So ... is the first one Corregidor, the second one Bakunin and the last one Tunguska? Or is there another order?

    Thanks.
     
  13. Nuada Airgetlam

    Nuada Airgetlam Nazis sod off ///

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    I gotta say I hope that the "294" result of Tohaa, on par with every single most popular sectorial, will ensure CB do not even think about squatting them.
     
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  14. Ieldin Soecr

    Ieldin Soecr Well-Known Member

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    [Pickrate Profile level]

    Breakdown of the list on Profile level. Units are now sorted alphabeticaly and profiles by pickrate
     
  15. Ieldin Soecr

    Ieldin Soecr Well-Known Member

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    As I mentioned in my post I only include reported/legal tournaments. It could be that some have not be reported back, or where not picked up by my crawler
     
  16. Ieldin Soecr

    Ieldin Soecr Well-Known Member

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    Yes, except for O12 everything is in the same order as in army.
     
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  17. Armihaul

    Armihaul Well-Known Member

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    Thank you. Those two can help to see which factions are above or below others in different ways, and well... seems there is some kind of relationship there
     
  18. Marduck

    Marduck Well-Known Member

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  19. Dyne

    Dyne Well-Known Member

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    Good Work! :+1::+1::+1:
    It's very interesting to see the wining rate for factions and the units less used in ITS.
     
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  20. WiseKensai

    WiseKensai Rogue Interventor
    Warcor

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    @Ieldin Soecr Just came here to say thank you for not just putting in the time and effort to do to this, but also presenting it well.
     
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