The following screenshots only include factions with 50+ recorded matches. 1. The Dominance of Next Wave With a 63% win rate over 196 matches, this cannot be dismissed as a statistical fluke. The argument that "only elite players use this faction" holds little water here; in fact, there is a clear logical contradiction: Next Wave has the highest usage rate. Elite players are, by definition, a minority. While Next Wave may lack "ultra-cheap" cheerleaders, their 13-point options are among the cheapest in Combined Army (CA) and are exceptionally functional, boasting specialist kits and the rare Wild Parrot. Furthermore, the 18-point Combat Instinct profile is staggering. Many of their units, such as the Wraith and Cliff Jumper, simply offer too much value compared to similarly priced models in other factions. 2. vO-12’s Struggle A 32.10% win rate over 78 matches confirms that vO-12 is struggling to adapt to the N5 meta. The reasons have been discussed at length, but it’s interesting to note the parallels with CA: both suffer from high-cost basic infantry and a lack of low-point filler (O-12’s line troopers are expensive, and their 7-point Remote is limited to AVA 1). 3. White Company: A Strong Contender With a 67.90% win rate over 56 matches, White Company is surging. While Yu Jing (YJ) received significant buffs in N5—which White Company benefits from—the faction also leans heavily on PanOceania units. Following the recent balance pass, PanO (and by extension, White Company) has seen massive improvements, particularly with the changes to Blockers.
There's some interesting stuff there. Ariadna is in the top 3. USARF's winrate is above O-12, White Banner, and Shindenbutai; USARF compared to Shindenbutai is particularly interesting, because you have the "forgotten" sectorial narrowly outdoing one of the most modern sectorials. The overall winrate compared to lists with a Sacha is particularly interesting because at a glance lists with a Sacha either score slightly better than the overall winrate or substantially worse than the overall winrate.
Need to correlate faction winrate to average player elo, or the stats don't include the most predictive performance factor
Also player numbers Also (relative) player numbers per faction. That said I recently checked how helpful the Sāchā were for winning games and so far they're only positively affecting two of the five factions (Invincible Army and USARF) they'll be added permanently
Sorry, I should have been more specific and evidenced my opinion above about elo. I recently finished the Infinity Global League satellite. We had approx 85 players and approx 220 games played. Coming out of the event I was concerned. Next Wave, Combined Army, and NCA were sitting at roughly 55% winrate. Something like that. Which isn't horrendous, but it's above average and they all had a reasonable number of games played. About 30 to 40 each. Enough games played across a variety of different players to be a bit concerned about maintaining a winrate that's noticeably above the others. At first I thought "Ok these factions are probably too good". But what I did was I compared the average elo of the NW, CA, and NCA players before the event began to the average elo of everyone else - their competitors. When I did this I saw that the average elo for these factions was marginally higher than the rest of the field. That is to say that, on average, the players of those three factions were favoured in their matchups based on skill anyway - from the beginning. And if you correlated the faction's average elo to their winrate it almost matched perfectly. The elo was the major driving force for the winrate we saw. It didn't explain all of the variance (it never would!), but it did explain a lot of it. So the tl;dr is that the apparently high winrates in my satellite event for those 3 scary factions were a product of their players having a higher average elo going into the event - they were always favoured.
Which makes sense as high-level competitors are also usually attracted to strong tools (it is the same for the Fighting Game Community). As for Next Wave being too strong, I could see some minor tweaks like they did to CA. What i am surprised about is vO12 and White Banner. Both have some great profiles, but maybe it is hard to bring them all together?
I’ve been updating this dataset weekly for the past six months. After observing the shifting trends and community discussions, here are my key takeaways regarding the current state of the game: 1. Neoterra is the Dark Horse of N5 Since the October update, Neoterra's win rate has steadily climbed and has now reached a significance level of P < 5. It’s clearly punching above its weight. I believe its success shares the same root as White Company: the efficiency of linkable Blockers. It seems this specific defensive piece is defining the current competitive curve. 2. The "Limbo" of White Banner and Shindenbutai These two factions are constantly fluctuating between "balanced" and "underpowered," with their P-values bouncing across the 5% threshold multiple times. For White Banner, its decline in competitiveness is likely environmental. In N4, they were the go-to Yu Jing faction for Pitcher access and flexibility. Now that Pitchers have been more widely distributed across the game, White Banner has lost its unique tactical leverage. 3. Community Overvaluation of Vanilla Yu Jing (vYJ) Despite European and Korean Tier Lists frequently placing vYJ in "S-Tier," the actual tournament performance doesn't back this up. While they aren't weak by any means, there is a visible gap between their "theoretical potential" on paper and their actual win rate in practice. 4. Next Wave (NW) is Genuinely Over-Tuned The community often dismisses NW’s high win rate by citing a "lack of cheap cheerleaders" or "new players not knowing the matchup." However, the data tells a different story. With a consistent win rate and high Z-score , NW is objectively a powerhouse, regardless of the learning curve for opponents. 5. Steel Phalanx Holds the Middle Ground Even after losing several key heroes to the Next Wave expansion, Steel Phalanx remains resilient. Their performance has stayed remarkably stable in the "decent/middle" tier, proving the core sectorial design is still robust. 6. Military Orders (MO): Popularity vs. Performance MO has seen a massive surge in play rate since the update. While the win rate is climbing, it is doing so very slowly. This "lag" is likely due to a high influx of new players or veterans testing the new profiles; the sheer volume of games is currently diluting the performance of experienced pilots. 7. Is Vanilla Haqqislam (vHaqq) Overhyped? Many tier lists (especially in Korea) put vHaqq in S-Tier, fueled by the excitement over the Saladin rework. However, the data shows a relatively average win rate. While Saladin is undeniably strong, vHaqq might realistically sit closer to A-Tier when looking at cold, hard match results. 8. The O-12 Reality Check: Community Optimism vs. Statistical Underperformance Community tier lists often place Vanilla O-12 in B or even A tier, but the data tells a much harsher story. With a 31.70% win rate and a Z-Score of 3.31 (P=0.09%), O-12 is currently the most statistically underperforming faction in the game. The gap between its "toolbox" reputation and its actual competitive output is massive. It seems having "a tool for every situation" doesn't translate to victory if the faction lacks the efficiency in the current N5 meta.
When fielding one of each flyer combined with Saladin, vanilla haqq is actually a pretty brutal opponent when I faced it. I personally think that as people realize how potent that combo is, that the win rate will increase. Will be interesting to see if that plays out in your stats record.
I’m curious about the missions in tournaments vs. the factions taken. Some missions just favor some factions. Is there a list anywhere of percentage of missions used? I finally got a chance to read the new mission, Outbreak. This one highly favors some factions. If this was in a tournament, we would see few Yu Jing armies and those that did are being foolish. This mission can only be accomplished with Doctors, Paramedics, and Spec Ops. YJ has very few doctors and medics and a few, ok Spec Ops. If I’m playing against YJ, they are target #1. Just make it so they can’t accomplish the mission. There are not even any classified cards. This can lead to a lot 0 VP. This is of course not just bad for YJ. PanO, JSA, and more have very few that can do this mission. It looks like it was made for Haqq, O-12 (they have troops that are all Spec Ops), Aleph. A few others might do well due to having fast doctors like the mobile 112. Yea, I know, not all missions should be equal, but it matters for tournaments. Some armies are just not taken because they are not good for any of the missions at the tournament. The only thing I can see as a balance is the other missions.
Comparative Analysis: Current Data vs. 3 Months Ago Bakunin Win rate dropped by about 4% (currently 44%). It seems their signature "multi-tool" versatility may no longer be the competitive advantage it once was in the current environment. PanOceania (Vanilla) Win rate dropped by about 5% compared to three months ago. This is likely a regression to the mean as the sample size increases. However, maintaining a 55% win rate is still a very solid performance. Oban (Daban) Holding steady at a 55% win rate. Excellent performance overall. This stands in stark contrast to the "C-Tier" rating often given by the Korean community. Imperial Service (ISS) Despite the recent rework and new models, their performance remains mediocre. It appears the new releases haven't provided the competitive edge the faction needed. Torchlight Brigade A massive leap in win rate from 43% to 56%. This could be due to the "learning curve" factor—new players finally mastering the faction—or a survivor bias where only experienced players have stuck with it. Regardless, Torchlight's current data is outstanding. Tartary Army Corps (TAK) Showing a significant climb after the official updates, with the win rate rising from 47% to 53%. Another faction showing impressive growth. Shasvastii Despite the frequent community complaints, the data shows a win rate of around 47%. It’s actually performing better than the vocal "salt" would suggest. White Banner Win rate improved from 34% to 40%, successfully moving out of the "Significantly Weak" zone. Ariadna (Vanilla) Dropped from 58% to 54%. The faction seems to have settled into a very healthy and balanced state following the recent updates. WinterFor A dramatic drop from 51% to 41%. This volatility is a major red flag—it might be a sign that WinterFor is struggling to adapt to the current meta. However, the sample size is still relatively small, so further observation is required. Nomads (Vanilla) Dropped from 56% to 48%. This remains within the range of normal statistical fluctuation for a balanced faction. White Company While the win rate dipped from 73% to 68%, this occurred while the number of games played nearly doubled. This actually confirms that White Company is even more competitive than we initially thought. They are clearly being underestimated by both Australian YouTubers and the Korean community.
I completely agree with your analysis. The design of specific missions definitely shifts the balance for certain factions. To add to your point, I think there’s another possibility worth considering that might explain the current meta. This shift actually seems to have started with the transition to ITS 17. In previous seasons, specialists like Doctors, Engineers, or Hackers often received bonuses like +1 Burst and +3 WIP for mission interactions. In ITS 17, these bonuses were largely removed across the board. This effectively 'flattened' the playing field. Factions that traditionally relied on a wide variety of specialized professional troops may have lost their competitive 'dividend.' Rather than a specific faction being weak, it might be that the high-WIP efficiency they once thrived on is no longer as impactful. It’s just another thought on why we’re seeing these shifts in the data. Thanks again for sharing your insights!
I think this season it’s all about speed and order efficiency. The order efficiency was always a thing but this season even more. A lot of the missions are: Go there, do that, take that over there, then do that. Some factions can do that, some can’t. The new VH are fast but that’s it. They can’t pick up anything; at most they can count as points in an area. But that’s still good because it only takes a single order to get to most places. The Outbreak mission for instance, you need to: Get to the patient Stabilize them Scan them Cive Evac them Move them to another area A ridiculous amount of orders to use! I’m going to take my O-12 or Starmada because all Lawkeepers are Specialist Operative. Infiltrators are the next best but many of them have low movement or not the right specialist. For example, all my Vanguard and Koga Ninja in ISS are Special Operatives, but they only move 4-4. None of my others are the right specialist. But thankfully a Combat Jump paramedic.
