I was curious about selection of hacking programs in ARO - when it's best to choose Carbonite vs. Oblivion. I'm used to choosing DA vs. AP ammo in the context of multi weapons, where DA is well known to be best unless the target has near TAG-level armour. But it turns out that the 3 extra DAM for Oblivion makes a big difference. I though it might be interesting to share the numbers: You have a WIP 14 hacker, and your opponent moves a WIP 14 HI into your hacking area. Do you ARO with Carbonite (DA Dam 13) or Oblivion (AP Dam 16)? Either way, your opponent resets. Against BTS 0, Carbonite is 39% to immobilize; Oblivion is 36% to isolate. Against BTS 3, Carbonite is 33%; Oblivion is 32% Against BTS 6, C=26%, O=30% Against BTS 9, C=16%, O=25% Conclusion: Against BTS 0 or 3, Carbonite is slightly more likely to succeed, but the difference is negligible. You're better off choosing based on whether you would rather immobilize or isolate the target. Likewise, against BTS 6 Oblivion is slightly better odds but still a negligible difference. Only against BTS 9 should you consider choosing Oblivion even if you would rather immobilize your target, as isolating is 9% more likely to succeed. In all cases, the differences are so slight that you'll do just fine if you ignore success likelihood entirely, and just choose your hacking program based entirely on which state you would rather inflict on the target.
I wouldn't call the difference between 26% and 30% negligible - Oblivion will succeed 15% more than carbonite will (4/26*100 = 15.38). I think it's easy to be dismissive of the small absolute gap, but it's enough to matter if you consider them relative to each other I reckon. Other than that quibble, thanks for crunching the numbers!
It's the difference between succeeding 5 times in 20 vs. 6 times in 20. So, once every 20 rolls, oblivion will succeed where Carbonite would have failed. Fair enough, it's debatable whether that's negligible :-)
An increased success of 1 in 20 is basically the same as pressing a button with a Trauma-Doc (WIP 12) vs a significant proportion of the other specialists in the game (WIP 13). We can ask our PanO players how significant that is ;)
the bigger thing is that oblivion will stop them in their tracks this turn and is harder to reset out of where as carbonite still leaves them the option to just break out and keep going. Additionally one thing that needs to considered is that a lot of HI will be benefitting from tinbots which will push those success rates lower and with the higher damage and AP on oblivion make it better at punching through.
I agree, most of the time you'll prefer to isolate the target rather than immobilize it. There will be exceptions from time to time where you prefer to immobilize (e.g. it's their last order of the turn and you don't want the unit to be able to ARO on your turn). What the numbers suggest is that you can decide which program to use based entirely on which state you'd rather inflict, without worrying about the odds of success. i.e. you can think "I would rather this guy be isolated so I'll use Oblivion" and you're done. You don't have to think "I'd rather this guy be isolated, but with his low BTS, Carbonite might have a better chance of success. Do I prefer a higher chance of success, or a better outcome for success? How shall I balance those considerations?" You can skip all that. Unless your target has BTS 9, in which case you should consider using Oblivion even in scenarios where you would prefer the target be immobilized. True, when you get into the really low ranges where success is almost impossible, AP does better. For example, if the HI in the original example has BTS 6 and a Firewall(-6), then Carbonite is 2% and Oblivion is 8% to succeed. Edit: I just reread the firewall rules, and it turns out that a firewall (-6) still only applies -3 to the DAM mod. So in fact, in the BTS 6 Firewall(-6) scenario, carbonite is 8% to immobilize and oblivion is 11%. A much smaller difference.
Generally speaking the odds of success are secondary to the goal you're trying to achieve. The FTF roll is the same either way. This stops being true at extremes like BTS9 +Firewall, where Carbonite stops being more than a gamble. Around BTS0-6 you should mostly chose your goal over the success rate. If you want to succeed at sticking any State on a low BTS Target (0/3) Carbonite is better. If you can immediately follow up with a E/M Template or CC trooper Carbonite is better. If you don't want the other side to be able to use Guts and leave your Hacking Area Carbonite is better. If you want to provoke your opponent to spend Orders on opposed Reset attempts to empty his Order pool Carbonite is better. If you want to absolutely prevent the other guy being able to spend another Order on killing (NCO, LT and Tac Aware Order are still available for the turn you get Isolated) Carbonite is better. If you layer your Hack (usually from HD) with a BS ARO Carbonite is often better to leave the Target exposed to Normal Roll BS Attacks. If you want to stick any State on a high BTS Target (6+ or Firewall and 3+) Oblivion is better. If you plan to make both Oblivion and Carbonite stick, Oblivion first is usually better for the -9 (unless the Guts move prevents follow up). If you don't have a follow up and just want to cause as much disruption as possible, Oblivion is harder to get rid of. If you want to disable Comms Equipment (Hacking Device/Program, Repeater, Jammer...) with Priority Oblivion is your Program. If you can target a Link Leader or Lt Oblivion is usually better.
Nice find. Now I still need a thing to remember which program has DA and which AP. ;-) Btw, do you have numbers on how likely it his to kill hackers behind firewalls with a KHD? My intuition is that its very unlikely. (looking at you, Jazz!)
Depends whether you mean in Active or ARO. A Barid pitches a repeater at Jazz and then tries to Oblivion her through it. He has a 48% chance to isolate her; she has a 13% chance to kill him. If she lasts long enough to Trinity him on her turn, she is 44% to kill the Barid while he's 16% to isolate her. Edit: those numbers are very slightly off as I forgot to include Jazz's +1Dam on Trinity. Her odds in both cases will be a bit better.
This makes a good argument for variety if you have multiple hackers: most targets where this matters are BTS 3/6 where the difference between Carbonite or Oblivion aren't particularly significant. So - unless you really need either ISO or IMM - you're probably better off declaring Oblivion with one Hacker and Carbonite with the second. This allows the opportunity for spectacular success (both IMM and ISO). Also - aside - I personally find it's very rare to get Hacking AROs. The effect of Hackers / Repeaters is generally to turn your opponent (forcing them to attack by a different approach) or to first force them to deal with your Hacker/Repeater (leaving them with less orders to spend on their attacking unit). Very few players will willingly march HI into a Repeater net.
As I play factions without pitchers, I'm more interested if it is viable to move a KHD into the enemy repeater range and go for Jazz through her own repeater. I feel like repeaters are a save bet atm, not a double edged sword like they have been in N3. So the question is, do I need to spend orders to remove the repeater (who like to pass their armor saves against me) or should I invest in a KHD to kill hackers through their repeaters. I'm currently thinking it might be worth to sacrifice a KHD just to kill Jazz.
Bad news - a Naga in its active turn trying to kill Jazz through her repeater is 25% to wound, 27% to suffer a wound. With Surprise Attack it becomes 30-18.
Not to mention Scylla with her ECM:Hacker on top of firewall and trinity mods. Her repeaters are even scarier to walk into.
