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N4 ARO game theory

Discussion in 'Access Guide to the Human Sphere' started by Teslarod, Oct 13, 2020.

  1. Teslarod

    Teslarod when in doubt, Yeet

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    A bit of time has passed and allows a better grasp on the effects of Tactical window on the game.
    Quick forward summary - Active turn is more lethal than ever. Most N3 defense concepts are significantly worse with less bodies, but that's not a bad thing, just a different one.

    Miscellaneous things that nerfed defense:
    - 15 slot cap. 99% of all 15 Order lists would benefit from a 16th slot for a Warcor for defense and utility. It's a lot more complicated than that, either way it hampered defenses a good bit.
    - Technical Weapons (mostly Flash Pulses in Links) no longer getting link Boni, even with their ammo type being nerfed, the loss of a B2 WIP based ARO with nice Rangeband hurts any linked trooper with one.
    - Jammers being Technical weapons, harder to fit in a list and limited in charges
    - rework of Stun Ammo to no longer irreversibly incapacitate for a turn, Flash Pulse hits no longer stopping a heavy TAG is very high impact
    - Loss of Stun Ammo from Multi Weapons, Multiweapons used to be able to take out a TAG in one shot for a turn. Even inflicting a persisting -3 would have been a very interesting choice against heavy troops, but it's gone.
    - Berserk no longer working on ARO a Galwegian can't automatically threaten anything he manages to get close to in ARO
    - Sixth Sense no longer allows for delay. This is very, very noticeable. Chasseurs are far less of a menace now.
    - Impetuous being neither straight ahead nor mandatory makes it harder to pick the hotheads off for free.

    Note I'm not complaining about these changes, but they all make a dent in your ability to halt a charge to a grind.

    Miscellaneous things that improved defense:
    - 15 slot cap. Less slots benefits finite defensive resources like Minelayers, Perimeter, Camospam and warm bodies like Puppets or Posthumans. There's simply less Orders available to chew through them and more points left over to fit them into lists after you can't fit more bodies.
    - Shotgun reworks. Gaining DTWs, ZOC was always scary, especially for 1W troops, now scarier than ever with a lot more DTWs around. On the flip side Active turn Shotguns hitting entire Links with FTF rolls at up to 24" was one of the most efficient force multipliers on your way to kill stuff. A lot more risky and a lot shorter range now.
    - Prone for REMs. Being able to hide them better or to preserve Dakini/Unidron/TR Bot ARO pieces is significant.
    - healing making things stand up, helps to keep your ARO game up by sustaining it in an Order efficient manner.
    - Tactical Command Token option for SF, while generally weaker than stripping Orders, options are options and a TAG, Charontid or Puppets in SF is at worst nice to have, likely a better than stripping Orders.
    - The big one, Hacking working against everything.
    - Easy to gain Partial Cover. The Active Player has all the control here, but is also the one losing all his cover depending on his Movement, so this is way in the defender's favor.

    Overall this drastically changes how to approach defense fundamentally. You get run over by a 11+ Order TAG if you keep your head down and try to soak it's damage. It's essential to oppose your opponent somehow during his turn, be it by slowing him down with capable AROs, catching him in Hacking nets, funneling through Minefields, any single thing alone is doomed to fail. I've ran straight to a full camo spam Ariadna list. The same lists that would simply have had 5 more bodies including a few Warbands for lucky Smoke/Engage in there.
    Sidetracking your opponent from his plans is crucial, at the same time Active Turn piece quality went up, making it harder to position your defensive Links and getting value out of them.

    Here's a rough breakdown of how defense can be achieved in meaningful ways:

    Defense by massed Forward Deployment/Infiltration
    With more and more C+/Superjump and higher MOV values this is a lot harder, but no one can efficiently reach your 3-4 midfield troops Prone on rooftops with Hackers and Minelayers in the mix. One or two are pretty likely to die a useless death being in the path of an attack piece designed to get on a roof, shrug off a template and kill your piece. Stacking up on them to chip down the attacker, Layering a DTW/Shotgun with another ARO, slotting some TO in there or sticking to TO alone would be preferable.
    Doesn't have to be be Camo troopers, your opponent is unlikely to Spec Fire or outtrade something like a Krakot efficiently with anything that can get to one of them in a good position.

    Defense by inaccessibility
    Utilizing every nook and cranny of a table, in a way that prevents Move+Shoot hopping from trooper to trooper. Total Cover is great, but once something gets around it and flanks you, the last thing they should have access to is a pie slicing shooting gallery. This is one of the hardest things in the game to learn and execute, however with Tactical Windows you'll have more points to invest in troops that can space out and less troops for the same space.

    Defense by contesting FTF or forced DTW
    A cheap DTW tucked in a corner that can't be reached from outside DTW range, TR Bot Reserve Pieces set up in Firelanes multiple moves away from the big bad HMG or outranging Sniper, but able to cover the midfield. Linked ARO pieces covered by a TO Sniper or simply a Jotum in SF covering your DZ from the back instead of sitting as far forward as possible

    Defense by area denial
    Both worse and better than before. Jammers are Disposable (2), but they still pose the same threat. If you're running out of charges you likely got all the value you'll ever need from one. Every Core Link should probably have a Hacker in them, simply to hassle AD troops or flankers on N4s less crowded boards. Things still have to get to you and if you don't give your opponent a Repeater to hack them through there won't be much of a risk. Clearing Mines is less efficient with less Orders and lack of 4 sacrificial Warbands on the board. Only one Perimeter weapon starts the game active, but it also starts the game as a permanent thing on the board regardless of what happens to their trooper.
    Funneling attack pieces into AROs with positive Rangebands or stacking opportunistic Hacking on top of Mines/Perimeter is something almost any army has access to and should attempt to include and utilize for defense.

    Defense by soaking Orders
    Best examples here would be Puppets, Posthumans and Antipodes. Bodies you can lose without repercussions to your Order Pool are rare opportunities to cheat Tactical Window. Cheap and sturdy troops that can bank on soaking damage before dying or retreating only after costing your opponent multiple Orders. Personally I'd prefer expendable secondary pieces like a Gecko, but you can also achieve this by risking your centerpiece TAG or ARO capable linked HI like Magisters for a bit.
    Camo does it safely since the requirement to Discover and inability to know if you're up against a Mine, capable long Ranged ARO, cheap trooper or empty Marker. As mentioned earlier, this needs to be abused beyond the Order tax for your opponent to reveal your Markers to be effective enough now.

    Now how is that different than in N3?
    Simple, you didn't have to do any of that there. Most armies were completely fine littering any available Total Cover with corner guards, hiding their key pieces behind that screen and call it a day.
    In N3 AD or Skirmishers would be greeted by a <10 point Chainrifle or Flash Pulse on every corner. With the Shotgun changes that is still is possible, but you're likely not risking your AD trooper for 2 expendable Chainrifles but get to attempt a more valuable target right away.

    Attack Vectors

    Hands down insane to deal with. Being on defense duty a tournament suited list has to be able to deal with TAGs, pinpoint accurate AD, Parachutist (DZ) and Smoke coverage to walk past FTF defenses. ZOC capable AROs like Hackers and Jammers or better surprise gotchas like Holo and HD to counter them have been the only way I can come up with to semi reliably deal with them. Given that dropping in isn't 100% reliable and can fail, that's likely secure enough. A substantial chance to punish the use of an AD piece wasting the Orders, points and slots involved is something I look for in any given list in N4. This translates directly into

    Key piece security

    With versatile attack vectors comes a much higher risk to your key pieces, Active Turn gunners, Lt, mission relevant Specialists. I found most N4 lists being critically low on Specialists compared to N3, keeping some alive is a challenge. Marker Lts or a sturdy Lt + CoC are more important than ever. The combined GL increased the long range potential of all former LGLs, introduced a few more E/M GLs and gave them all a free upgrade to E/M2. Add the buff to spotlight, AP everywhere and D-Charges on loads of CC troops that suddenly don't have a -3, +2 CC and likely got upgraded to from N3 MA1/2 to N4 MA2.

    Lethality

    N4 made things overall less durable. Whatever you think about the Crit change it isn't helping heavy troops survive. On the contrary. Multiwound troops or troops you want to revive need DAM-10 in remaining ARM/BTS to gain effective survivability. Especially Outside of Cover (which is easy to get, but still easy enough to strip), yes a HI with ARM3 in Cover is slightly better off against a HMG crit than in N3, but significantly less durable than in N3 outside of cover.
    You are vastly more tanky vs basic Rifle or Pistol AROs while hugging cover as a heavy trooper. And that is what we all perceive as increased survivability - durable Active Turn Rambos taking noticeably less chip damage while picking their engagements. It also helps foward troops that are effectively dead if they would take a single wound, if they get lucky and hold all saves that's a net gain over the autowound for them.
    This is an advantage for the Active Player to exploit by a mile and then some, the Reactive Player gets the short end of the stick.
    With the right counter measure in place killing the other guy's heavy troops with a suited tool never was easier:
    - Oblivion is B2 and gained Breaker
    - all E/M is N3 E/M2
    - K1 and Molotoks +1 base damage
    - a bunch of troops gained AP or Fatality
    - Crits are deadlier (as mentioned), especially on the receiving end of DAM16 AP HMGs
    - 90% of all CC troops hit like a truck compared to N3, with better CCWs, more DAM from MA (again favoring Crits), D-Charges, increased CC values and MODs from MA, especially MA2 and MA5 hit much harder and/or more reliable against a CC *scrub* like most TAGs.

    TAGs and HI are cheaper, significantly better at killing with more valuable targets across the board, but they can and will die like flies in N4 against their counters much easier than in N3. Doesn't need a Mono hit for that.

    This isn't doom and gloom. These are changes the game goes through. Certain things get harder, most notably the ARO game is more dynamic and harder to manage. Ironically both playing smart and playing risky is rewarded more than in N3, but smart play can also turn risky play like hinging a plan on AD into a pitfall.

    Hope that helps a few people struggling with the N3->N4 transition. There are ups and downs in N4 and if anything CB failed at their goal to lower the ceiling and raised it by accident. As a result the game honestly looks more fun, 15 slots means choices rather than minmaxing bodies and allows to bring tools, which in turn give you the opportunity to approach a problem and let the dice express your decisions rather than dictating them.
     
    #1 Teslarod, Oct 13, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2020
  2. Nuada Airgetlam

    Nuada Airgetlam Nazis sod off ///

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    All of the above clearly reads as "TL;DR - who starts, wins". Bring a high WIP LT or face a crushing alpha strike that is way harder to defend from than in N3 and expect to have a huge handicap once you get to your own Active.

    In this fashion the game has gone way towards 40k's core issue of "who wins the roll off, gets to smash face". Shame.

    Sucks to be WIP 12/13 USARF and face WIP 16/17 Avatars, Hectors and Sun Tzus. That's a 20% higher chance in the LT WIP Roll.
     
  3. barakiel

    barakiel Echo Bravo Master Sergeant

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    I agree that the player who goes first is at a huge advantage in most situations. We know that this year's ITS is likely to feature a lot more progressive scoring (scoring every turn, as opposed to at the end of the game) and we'll have to see if this also favors going first. The player going second is going to have to be smart as hell, capitalizing on table side and every conceivable advantage available to maximize Objectives Points. I'm not really looking forward to that.

    I'm already looking at armies that can Deploy with midfield Repaters in place (Nomads, PanO) as having a strong defensive advantage this edition.

    I particularly agree with the last point too:
    Tac window removed stability from the game. This is both a good thing and a bad thing. Games will be far more dramatic, swingy, nail-biting, and full of risk/reward. They'll also be more frustrating, crushing, one-sided, and devastating. I think it's probably personal preference whether that's a "good thing" or not.
     
  4. Nuada Airgetlam

    Nuada Airgetlam Nazis sod off ///

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    The removal of stability is an on-point observation, mate.

    The games will result in losses in first Active that will likely never be recouped and very likely will mean that you're gimped for the rest of the game. It's simply becoming unfair for a 4-CT 15-Order max USARF list with WIP 12/13 LTs vs bonkers CA lists with a WIP17, +1CT, +1 Order, TacAware [5 CT, effective 18 Orders to spend on Avatar and you can still have a VanZant yourself].

    The 20-25% first Active chance difference is insane on its own.
     
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  5. Teslarod

    Teslarod when in doubt, Yeet

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    If you port N3 experiences 1:1, yes.
    A 12 Order TAG Lt will smash face and there isn't much you can do to stop it if you keep using the same kind of lists and defensive approach as in N3 - just capped to 15 slots.

    You NEED to play the ARO game in N4 to not get roflstomped against someone who knows that. Deploying a bunch of bodies to buy time isn't enough. Putting out a Kamau Sniper and a TR Bot in obvious positions isn't enough. Running your whole army as Camo Markers isn't enough.

    N3 was more on the attacker to find a way to peel the onion layers of Warcors, Warbands, Helots, Jammers, Snipers etc before or despite a Flashpulse Crit, Smoke Dodge, Jammer, Chasseur or Linked Sniper ultimatley suceeding to blunt the order investment.

    N4 defenses hinge on making your opponent run in circles to avoid risks, or springing a Hacking ARO, Jammer, TO piece, strategic sucide Smoke or CC threat on him he didn't see coming. If you can't pull that off you're likely playing sitting duck, trying to get lucky despite the odds not in their favor. Every loss is noticeable, the 5 point Warband is likely one of your scarce sources of Smoke and you only have the one. A Techbee is a precious Specialist

    Agreed with @barakiel
    ITS will have to put up the slack here, putting the second player back in the driver seat, making most if not all missions strictly favor going second, period.
    Not being able to crush the other guy and then leisurly walking around on an unopposed table picking up easy 7+ OP in a turn with no chance for the other guy to come back from that needs to go. Annihilation/Firefight type missions should take a good look at Frostbyte to make sure there is something left to lose when you manage to neglect the mission in favor of straight up killing.

    Worst case there are ways to punish leaning too hard on dominating in your Active turn to beat the living daylight out of your opponent rather than playing the mission. Mass Infiltrating Hacking & Deployables, Triple Noctifiers + Q-Drone, Swiss ML & Hexa Shooting galleries, *guess the Tankhunter MLs* Ariadna, max AVA Farzan (Minelayer) backed by Nadhir HD AROs.

    One of the main problems you have to deal with is people bringing lists that fall appart when you look at them funny when going second, but aim to go first and smash an Avatar into you at full speed. This isn't consistent enough to be reliably successful, every time they lose a LT roll they're in deep, but that doesn't make it any easier to deal with when the WIP17 Lt does win the FTF in your game.
    I'm going to have to design every list I ever play to be able to deal with that stupid 13 Orders Avatar Limited Insertion List going first. Doesn't matter that the guy playing it will be unlikely to pull it off 5 games in a row, it only matters that he doesn't get away with it in the game I lose the Lt roll against it.
    Same for Van Zant'ing or AD rolls in general. Doesn't matter that it's unlikley to keep working flawlessly, it only matters that it might work against me in my game so I need a way to deal with it. Maybe I run into something like that 3 games in a row, so it's vitally important I have an answer that's not rolling over.
     
    #5 Teslarod, Oct 13, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2020
  6. MikeTheScrivener

    MikeTheScrivener O-12 Peace Kepper

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    i think on a whole alot of link team ARO pieces have become alot stronger as well - TR bots not needing an order every turn to put marksmenship back on as well as the huge flux of these optimized wildcards such as the Karhu make for premiere ARO pieces. Though linked flash pieces have gotten weaker, the flash pulse itself has gotten stronger now forcing two bts saves instead of one.
    outside of little differences like this i agree that Tac window changes the playing field quite a bit. I think what's important is to see how the missions will be formatted and generally what main objectives are.

    I do agree some armies really feel like they're at a disadvantage though.
     
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  7. Nuada Airgetlam

    Nuada Airgetlam Nazis sod off ///

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    This still sounds like your chances for defense are very table-dependent.

    Beyond that, some of the factions (Ariadna among them) simply do not have those excellent ARO tools. I mean, I can stick Grunts into cover and they wil have effective ARM6, but they're still plinking with rifles. That's not gonna stop a roflstompy "ODD" Avatar.
     
  8. Alphz

    Alphz Kuang Shi Vet. Retired.

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    This is definitely my first impressions of changes so far. Power projection has increased, but consistent lethality has decreased (Crits can be very lethal, but can also be total duds, totally dependent on a that second set of rolls). Combined with less models, who are higher points with more toys.

    I think defense in N4 for me is looking like leaning into hacking more. But that itself is a tough list challenge, because reactive turn hacking by in large is very weak to active turn hacking. So a token hacker here or there is potentially just going to get rolled - and if theres anything you don't want with a limited body list is to lose some of those bodies for a low cost to your opponent.
     
  9. WiT?

    WiT? Well-Known Member

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    Seeing some great stuff here. Its definitely a different game with tactical window and I want to help us keep it a positive one by developing the 'defensive meta' for it.

    I don't have time to go deep, but I want to put my two cents based on what I've seen so far so this post is earlier in the thread. Mainly the Avatar too stronk stuff, and the Ariadna can't defend stuff.

    I've run the Avatar quite a lot, and run it with decent success since N4. I'm also, like everyone else here, intimately familiar with how good spam used to be, and ran a ton of spam mostly to mitigate alpha strikes and other spam. I've also played a metric shit ton of games against Ariadna camospam lists. Like, fucking tons and tons and tons of games against it over about eight years of playing regularly. I'm fucking sick to death of it lol

    Firstly, I disagree heavily that this is "take WIP 17 and win" edition or whatever. Last year I played a five game event with the Avatar and lost four WIP rolls - WIP 17 is not something to hang your playstyle on. I've had heaps of experience with the Avatar and often opt for table and yield first turn - its not the be all and end all of strategies for an Avatar list or any decent list.

    Secondly, a big TAG on overwatch is one of the better defensive directions to go in in this edition. The best form of defense before IMO involved lots of bodies, and with many armies being limited in that approach, I'm a big fan of a big and tough gun that can guts to cover and be repaired. You can easily build an Avatar list with solid ARO and defensive options. Between the Avatar, the ubiquitous flash pulse remotes, and access to a Noctifier, I know that I felt more confident going second with it than I did going first. Similar results can be obtained with many of the expensive TAGs, as long as they have a MULTI HMG you should be able to play defense with them and a few buddies. Point is, you can build a balanced list around a TAG and not be all in on going first and I think this may be one of the main answers to the 'problems in defense' that tactical window edition brings.

    Third, Ariadna can totally play the defensive game in N4. Just not as good as before, as they did lean heaviest into the bodies game. Camospam with mixed mines still deters many light options. Camospam with ambush deployment and camo missiles or caterans can deter practically anything. Either of these in sectorial with a linked gun can make for a massive pain in the ass to attack in to. Ariadna can take camo cheerleaders, and can clear the DZ with mass infiltration and so hide its few cheerleaders and relevant pieces easily, and make the path to one or two strong non-marker models a death trap with mines and warbands just like in the old edition.
     
  10. meikyoushisui

    meikyoushisui Competitor for Most Ignored User

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    It's not exactly a "I take an Avatar and guarantee myself to go first" -- like every other roll in the game, you're maximizing success and mitigating risk. Things that have a 5% chance to happen do have a 5% chance of happening, after all.

    Specifically to this case, the Sun Tze/Avatar Lt does give you a huge advantage. For example, with WIP13 lieutenants, both lieutenants only actually pass their roll in the same lt roll about 40% of the time, and each wins roughly 50% of the time.

    There are 400 outcomes between an Avatar and a WIP13 Mook. By my math, both fail or they tie in 164 cases, the Avatar wins in 158, and the Mook wins in 78.

    That means on average, the Avatar is almost twice as likely to win the Lt roll. A lot of players tend to overlook how big winning by default 20% of the time is (on a roll between 14 and 17).
     
  11. Nuada Airgetlam

    Nuada Airgetlam Nazis sod off ///

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    ^ This.

    I've never said "it's the take WIP17 and win edition", but as above, going first is a huge advantage already and if your chance to do that is shaped as above, it's an insane handicap to not have better Lieutenants to pick from.
     
  12. fatherboxx

    fatherboxx Mission control, I'm coming home.

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    it is not a huge advantage in many missions that rely on scoring at the end of every round
     
  13. Nuada Airgetlam

    Nuada Airgetlam Nazis sod off ///

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    Good luck scoring when you've lost most of your list from an Alpha strike.
     
  14. fatherboxx

    fatherboxx Mission control, I'm coming home.

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    btw hellois said in the white noise podcast interview that a lot of missions will be scoring-at-the-end-of-round

    presumably you took some marker state and or forward deployed units for a zone control mission - and can easily retake any zones after turn 1
     
  15. Mahtamori

    Mahtamori Well-Known Member

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    None of this actually matches my experiences at all when it comes to "who goes first wins" - particularly when hacking* can be used to improve your odds by a lot when it comes to defence. That's a trait that's been Limited Insertion for us and not something that's happened with Tactical Window. I think "who goes first wins" is better described as the wordy "who goes first with Counterintelligence wins, provided they aren't playing with 10 or fewer models"

    If your list has key units then you're buggered if your opponent manages to kill those key units more than you were back when you didn't have any key units because you had to spread your list thin to get to 20 orders, but that's a different issue that can be best avoided by not making lists that are tall.

    A small side note; Berserk doesn't work when engaged. It's an active turn Hail Mary, and incompatible with smoke as well.

    * Hacking is mandatory** if you're not playing heavy on camo.
    ** Mandatory as in "breathing oxygen-rich air is mandatory to survive" not as in "life jackets are mandatory to ride the boat"
     
  16. Teslarod

    Teslarod when in doubt, Yeet

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    Taking an Avatar winning you the game is a crass oversimplification and flat out wrong.
    What N4 allows is to build an Avatar list that works well IF you go first, with no regard to that you might be at a serious disadvantage if you don't.
    You can still easily get dismantled if a lucky Hacking ARO Isolates the Avatar in the wrong place or goes second against a skilled opponent.
    I don't believe there is a single viable list that works with only one combat group on a high level.
    Double Jotum, Avatar Speculo, 5x Tac Aware IA, doesn't matter.
    Going second without a second group to keep your Order pool up and delay your opponent equates being on the backfoot. Playing that kind of list in a tournament is asking to end up as middle of the pack.
    Especially in case of the Avatar with how ridiculous the new Anathematic is and how easy an Avatar gets taken out by an array of readily available DAM16+ CC troops, E/M(2), B4/5 AP guns and Hacking.
     
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  17. barakiel

    barakiel Echo Bravo Master Sergeant

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    The fact that firewall is much stronger in N4 does a lot to boost defensive Hacking.

    The interaction I'm most likely to have is 2 linked Fusilier Hackers + a specialty Hacker (either an HD on a higher WIP unit, or a KHD) AROing through a midfield Repeater against enemy Hackable targets.

    Even if an opponent rolls up with a KHD, the best he's doing is splitting Burst (or facing unopposed roles) while contending with Firewall mods. Those aren't brilliant odds, and could serve as an actual deterrent. It will be easier for the opponent to kill the Repeater, rather than killing the enemy Hackers on the other end of the Repeater, and I think that's excellent and interesting design.
     
    #17 barakiel, Oct 15, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2020
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  18. Alphz

    Alphz Kuang Shi Vet. Retired.

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    Yeah hacking through enemy repeaters is no longer a safe bet, but in a one v one killer hackers are favourites to get the job done. Which I think is a pretty good place for the role.

    On a cursory glance, CB seem to have done a good job of not allowing sectorials to stack amazing hackers with upgrades or high BTS into fireteams with tinbots which would otherwise steamroll a repeater network. So as of right now, the hacking game looks to be about who can get repeater network dominance as you often don't want to be fighting through enemy repeaters against multiple hackers.

    Pitchers are the force multiplier here, and with changes to baggage rules it can be relatively easy to throw them out from an entrenched fireteam (pitchers still get the bonus from what I can tell?)
     
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  19. barakiel

    barakiel Echo Bravo Master Sergeant

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    @Alphz
    Having high BS linked pitchers lobbed into my DZ to mess with me before I even get a turn is one of my big fears. Taking casualties and also have to fix isolated/targeted/whatever before I even leave my DZ is going to be rough.
     
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  20. herod1204

    herod1204 Knight of Santiago

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    Hellcats with deployable repeaters.

    Action 1 drop on a fifteen into your deployment zone.

    Action 2 drop a repeater and move into cover.

    Action 3 go on suppressive.

    Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
     
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