I don't think you're going to see that. They try to have the ITS prizes be minis that most factions can use. So mercs make the most sense.
On the other hand, a new edition is a good excuse to do some tidying up of ITS prize and limited edition mercs into their relevant sectorials and tidy up Vanilla forces somewhat.
As far as what units will not make it into N4 my money is on the ones that don't sell well enough to justify being on shelves. Which, by definition, includes the discontinued models first and foremost. I say that as someone who owns Acon, MRRF and NCA. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point during N4's development these older sectorials are revisited with new rules and new models (as well as the return of any old models that hold up). And given CB's generous proxy rules I can still use my painted MRRF to stand in as USARF or whatever else I want. This is kind of the downfall of how amazing Army is though and I honestly hope that they keep an archived N3 version of Army accessible just for anyone who wants to keep playing N3 (I know we could just use the books but really...) I'm very interested to see where they go with this from a business standpoint. I've played 'That Other Game' for 26 years now and it's often buckled under the weight of trying to support legacy models. 'Only' 3 sectorials in 2020 means I suspect CB uses this as a chance to hit the reset button and refresh the existing factions to give us reasons to be excited about them again (and about buying new models, I bet they spread the love around and everyone gets a few cool new units with N4).
Mercs are fine, five new ones every year aren't. A decent-AVA merc with several profiles like the Krakot could easily take up the ITS prize slot on a near-permanent basis with a bit of creativity from the sculptors.
I don't think we get 5 year but even if we did what is the problem with that? It's not like we are forced to take them and I don't think any of them are so good they're constantly being used in all the lists.
5-a-year was an exaggeration, it's more like 1-2 really but that adds up. It distorts faction identity, from a little to a lot depending on key the units are and how many of them there are, which ticks a few people who like lore-compliance off and can make armies less distinct and unified on the table, which can bother some who like the hobby aspect. Fortunately this is a rather minor problem, and the way it's being handled in Sectorials is great since the mercs they're given are typically aligned in lore and often even style. As for some mercs appearing in all the lists, from what I can tell Krakots are extremely popular in vanilla PanO and Yu Jing, among others, for filling some big holes (DTW+CC Warbands in PanO, Jammer-Immune for many other factions) and the Libertos is excessively common since it's a strong midfield speedbump/opportunity attacker that costs nearly nothing and doesn't eat up SK Camo Specialist AVA, and can even be a Minelayer for factions that are short on them. I'm not against Mercs in general, but a little more restraint in universally-available ones would be nice. Hell, I think a Merc profile with Nimbus Grenades would have been a fantastic quick-fix for modern cheap mixed Fireteams being unassailable for a couple of older factions. I do expect a few redundant mercs might actually get cut for N4, we do have a lot of mercenary snipers at this point.
Didn't save Toni tho :-) If CB wants someone gone, they will easily make it so. Also, no cubes in Ariadna, except Wallace, so their characters are easy to kill off.
As much as I like Acon and its troops, there's several solutions a cut can go. Regulars don't need to be cut, they're similar enough to be consolidated with Fusiliers. Move 1-2 of their Special Profiles over to those and keep stuff like the Sapper Sniper and LGL Hacker SAA exclusive. Vanilla/Varuna/NCA could gain a useful new Linetrooper Profile or two, Regulars turn into universal Fusilier Proxies and if CB ever wants to bring SAA back, their linetroopers will be ARM1 WIP12 and called Fusiliers. Not the end of the world. Thinking of PanO as "the professional army" it makes sense on some level that all their Sectorials share the same kind of Linetrooper the same way they share the Trauma Doc and Machinist. I'd hate the GDA go, but then again he's not special, his Auxbot is. And the little guy can be moved literally anywhere else or he goes the way of the Dodo like the Sierra with Monomines. Bagh Mari I can see surviving for some reason, but in between Kamau and Nisse, Vanilla wouldn't miss them much without a Sectorial and Fireteam options. Or again, could be flat out consolidated the Nisse (Less Bagh Mari around, so they got a gear upgrade and better training etc). Montesa Biker neither has a sculpt nor is he a very common addition. He's not amazing and mostly a crutch for certain ITS missions. Can definitely see him silently going away during the transition even though he is technically unique. Maybe giving PanO a Bike was a mistake to begin with no matter how distinct the troop actually is. The Tik will survive one way or another. Too popular and they might have added him to MO for precisely that reason. With NCA getting retired it's technically possible that the whole Stingray series is going to be axed, lets hope that doesn't happen. Not much we can do about the Dragao being doomed. I own one and fielded it twice. It's a good TAG but without a Sectorial, current sculpt and enough other heavy TAGs it won't survive N4. Akalis are bland enough be replaceable, again no Sectorial and pretty redundant. And that's already it, the rest is a lot of Aleph Troops. Mostly concerned about some NCA troops or the Sectorial getting retired. With Bolts in Foreign Company and Swiss/Aquila Guards as popular as ever, the main concern would be Auxilia, Locust, Hexa and the Uhlan. Uncertain what will happen to those 4.
IIRC Bostria said MRRF are getting new releases, just not in 2020. Of course, huge mountains of salt, it's Bostria.
Sure, if they want to, they can kill every unit. I just stated this to show that "age" is not an essential reason for someone to die in the infinity universe. Maybe with N4 Ariadnans (and all of JSA) get cubes, because you can't stop progress....
Why are they getting rid of NCA? Just when they made Bolts decent. WTF? So what? are they going to discontinue the swiss guard now? lol Get rid of MO instead and let us keep one of our best sectorials. Isn't NCA popular? What the hell. Wheres my sectorial to use the Aquila and Swiss Guard now?
MO is incredibly popular. NCA is old and a lot of the models look terrible. NCA rules aren't going away – just the minis are getting retired to free up production room for Sval. My guess is the beyond boxes will not go OOP
They aren't getting rid of neoterra. They have not gotten rid of any single sectorial. FRRM, Acon, and QK are all still completely playable just like neoterra. You'll still be able to use your models.
MO is bonkers popular compared to NCA and SAA. The stats put those two quite close to each other. If anything Vanilla should be discontinued. >:( It's sad that NCA is going away as it was probably the most core identity that PanO had in terms of look and feel. Varuna and SAA strike me a variation on the identity established by NCA and MO is sort of the wild child with some influence from it. I really want to know what they're going to do with the beyond kit as that has the awesome Swiss model, bolt and the Kamau HMG and that would be an awful waste to see go away.
With NCA gone though, there's a strong option build Sval into a similar space. Biggest issue being that Nisse are not Bolts and lend themselves more to the Kamau/Fusi treatment. That's of course pending what happens with Fireteams and MI in N4. Uhlan / Jotum work very well as the two TAGs. With Auxilla gone it'll be interesting to see what Sval gets as the Warband replacement: ASA had plentiful mines and limited Devabots/Auxbots, VIRD has helots, NCA has Auxbots. I think with NCA you'll probably only lose Aquilla, Aux, Locusts and Hexa. Losing Hexa from vanilla will be a pain, but with Swiss, OS and Crocmen TO MSRs its not irreplaceable. Losing Aquilla will probably hurt the most from a 'characterful' POV, but probably won't matter from a listbuilding one. It also helps differentiate PanO and YJ options, which is notable.
It (OS+Auxbot) doesn't quite work at that price point, which is one of the issues with MO: the reason the Aux works is because it's cheap for the coverage you get. But yeah, that might be the option they go with. An SMG OS + Auxbot would be interesting. Particularly if it got an FO option. Would fill the role of Auxilla in Vanilla as well. Yes, it's very much 'apply SMG fix profile', but it's a place I think it'd work.
