My 2019 Conspiracy Theory

Oh sure, I’m happy to be wrong.

Thus far it looks like we’ll have more ways to play (both as Tohaa and as Spiral). But I’d still note that there’s definitely a focus away from the traditional Tohaa going forward based on what has been said and revealed so far. If that photo floating in the other thread of discontinued Tohaa units is legit, well then.


Either way, we don’t know what Daedalus’ Fall will do to availability/viability of the Tohaa faction (if anything). And while it wasn’t a total capitulation to the EI like I suggested, the Tohaa did take a beating in this phase of the war with all that entails. Thematically it’s similar to what I suggested (Tohaa loses, leaving the HS as the main anti-CA force with only a triumvirate-led diaspora of Tohaa helping in the wings). The most interesting possibility here is that the Triumvirate is actually the reason for the fall of the wormhole, instead of the CA. I could see that happening to protect their interests in Tohaa space and solidify themselves in the HS without Trident oversight. But fair enough. Let’s see what the army updates bring the traditional Tohaa (and the rest of the Sphere/CA) as the week moves on.

For my part, I'll probably be playing Spiral either way. I like being the baddies.

If anyone deserves credit for calling it early, it’s @Cothel who hit the most things right in this thread, by my count.

 

Yeah, I saw that, too (mentioned in my post). Not sure I buy it - that's basically _everything_ tohaa that's not in Spiral. Which would be... odd, if they want to keep the Faction going (and some of @Bostria 's comments today suggest they do, that Tohaa Trident is not just closing up shop).

 

Man, I leave for a day…

Contra the juxtaposition with @Cothel ’s great thread from today, I’ll note that while my original theory was floated with some trepidation it was not intended to be positive or negative (as I’ve mentioned many times), just predictive of what would happen to the Tohaa Faction going forward. On that point, I think we all did pretty well at predicting things thematically.

But based on today’s revelations, I wanted to touch on three (TOHAA!) points.

1. This is the best MRRFing imaginable. Like, MRRFing Plus Plus. We get a slew of new profiles and models while they retire Tohaa for the foreseeable future. This is a good trade. Those new profiles/models are good for enhancing Tohaa Faction play. This is better than what I expect for QK later this week, and better treatment than either ACA or MRRF got, and less disruptive than the JSA split. This should be the model for retiring a sectorial going forward (looking at you, NCA and Caledonia). In terms of Spiral, everything but the name looks rad (and the goofy name is kinda awesome in-universe. You're* the who? Spiral whatnow? Never heard of them ohgodwhyareyoushootingmewithviralpistols!).

And here’s my favorite part: any new Tohaa players will be _Triumvirate_ players! There will also be the old guard players of Tohaa Trident (not me, I’m down to join the baddies). The meta level thinking here is really neat, b/c the story of the Triumvirate influence on the Tohaa will play out in the player base over time as well.

2. This is not a run-up to a rerelease of Tohaa, and it should not be. @Koni indicated there were no immediate plans for repacks. It doesn’t make story sense. And the SKUs they removed don’t make sense if they are bringing it back any time soon. If they were relaunching it, they would have A) maintained production of mainline Tohaa pieces that already have new sculpts, e.g., sukeuls, B) included more updated Tohaa mainline units in the Spiral box for overlap, and C) not written Daedalus' Fall to be about the closing of the gate. Tohaa Trident is done for awhile, and we need to be okay with that; hell, it might even be the Triumvirate that helped close the gate (we'll know soon).

We have _lots_ of exciting Tohaa list building to try out _and_ we have a whole new sectorial to play. These are very good things to keep both fresh. And Spiral looks viable as a straight Tohaa unit force, not just the mercs + tohaa junk list we all feared. The one painful thing for a Tohaa faction player is it means we’ll be proxying Taquels and Sakiels LRLs for awhile yet, but what else is new? And there’s new stuff coming: new Chaksa Longarms, Greif Operators, whatever Monstruckers are, when panO gets helots we do too, etc. Growth and models are coming.

3. When CB talks about shaking things up and SKUs and dated models, we need to hear story, sales, and design. Storywise they want to play up the HS vs. CA conflict, and Tohaa was always going to fight for the limelight as a HS ally. Spiral puts us in the middle of that conflict, sometimes helping HS (to help Tohaa), sometimes helping CA (to help Tohaa), which is great. Design-wise Tohaa Faction had some design features that were hard to expand against more recent sectorial armies (both better and worse). This is not just a balance problem, but also a player relations problem. If they make any change to Tohaa faction, everyone (tohaa and non-tohaa alike) complains. "We got nerfed!" "Not nerfed enough!". So to improve the balance going forward, Spiral is going to get built as a modern sectorial with all the profiles that would likely break Tohaa faction, and faction will get an injection of limited profiles that are safe updates. So Tohaa faction remains good (with maybe an AVA change and a few new toys) and Spiral entices us with new design options that we have to give up Makaul + Sukeul + Sakiel to get.

Overall, I’m pretty happy with this solution so far, and it makes sense with their long-term thinking. It’ll be interesting to see what Gencon brings. My money is now on Shas vs. a new unknown NA2 power - not Spiral. NA2 doesn't have a Battle Box yet, and it's about to have more sectorials than anything else). It’s a good way forward for us Tohaa players, and now it’s up to you old guard guys to convince those of us who have gone full Triumvirate to get back in line.

edit: grammar