This is certainly true, campaign and ITS tournaments won't correlate perfectly. We're talking predictions here, and as it's a recent and relevant data set it's reasonable to assume that they will be similar. The hypothetical scenarios that you list are just your speculations, and so are clearly less accurate predictors than the ITS data. Yes of course there will be some uncertainty, we don't expect anyone to predict with 100% accuracy the representation of each faction in the next campaign. That's why we're basing our prediction on previous data. Honestly it's insulting how we're being treated like idiots by warcors who blindly follow instead of thinking for themselves. What's also very concerning is that this data is apparently "far too random to make a prediction" and yet profile usage (in Army) statistics were used to tell us how we wouldn't be affected by Uprising as we didn't use JSA models anyway!
I think there is a difference in list building in ITS is were theoretically the most optimised and better lists are created and one can see what list the best players make, one can balance the game with data drawn from this and of course make assumptions of unit profile and load-out usage and the participation in narrative campaigns, were players play for fluff and not for tournament wins. As I said I have encountered too many players who play another army in ITS and another for fluff, I have encounter players who rotate armies and while they participate in one faction discussion they currently play another, I have encountered players who do not care to participate in tournaments and players who don't care about fluff events and the fluff in general. It is as hypothetical to assume the ITS will be translated 100% to campaign participation as it is to assume that it will not, I prefer to state when I am not confident to make a prediction and wait to see the participation than make any prediction.
So passing thought about the fluff for uprising, but what if aleph was assisting the Japanese in their civil war? Subtly and indirectly of course, but it makes sense. Aleph probably had full knowledge that it was being set up and had the capabilities to assist in keeping such a large amount of work secret. With their vote in the 0-12 (even if 1 out of others 4) it could help there. And inform the other factions to assist as well. One of the two biggest plot holes that i can see is how does such a ridiculous sized rebellion get started against such a skilled investigators. Having literally ninjas but what if the internet was secretly on your side. The other plot hole is how did pano do a blockade between main land Asia and Japan when yujing owned both sides. To this i hope that it was blockading outer space to earth, in which case there is no issue. Or i have no answer sadly.
Aleph involvement, given the integration of its forces into ISS operations, would definitely answer some floating questions. But that scenario is the one where Yu Jing is headed towards joining the Combined Army.
There is no lore scenario were Yu Jing would join CA, what fan-fiction players may make is not canon or lore.
So, assuming that aleph knew about the plot of revolution against yu jing, which seems fair with alephs fluff. There is 2 option that i see for aleph in that situation. Aleph supported yujing and wanting yujing to stay as 1 country just doesnt seem very likely, it would mean two factions with their important aspects of the fluff on the line totally dropped the ball. If aleph opposed the iss though? Totally seems fair that iss had problems. The first logical option of aleph thoughts on uprising could be no opinion. That aleph sees no benefit or loss either way and so just apathied and obstained through the entire ordeal. Aleph was created to help humanity and the uprising just wasn't a small deal. It seems odd to obstain from that when assisting or ending this would be trivial after knowing about it. The last is assisting japan. This answers, i think, every plot hole except the pano steel wall and got away with it part. The iss is skilled but fighting the internet and data along the way would prove extremely difficult. It would also allow them to be competant and yet still fail. A critical thing when writing about how Japan got away with the revolution under the iss' nose. Aleph knows a lot of the illusion of control. The Japanese HATED being part of yujing. They are probably no better off under the kuge but are happier because no yujing. Its that meme written of the dog in a burning house saying everything is fine. But for those japanese people now? They are better, atleast they think so. For yujing, i dont think they are going to surrender to ca. The reason is they are prideful and those in power would lose any semblance of control of yujing. I do hope something good goes their way though, they need it. Winning the teasum on dawn or making pano answer to its war crimes during uprising (that second one i think needs to happen regardless). It would allow the player base to have a good huraw to the underdog and show the power of the n2 hyperpower.
I'll just say that all this leaves me with very low interest in the game at the moment. I can understand why CB did it (sweet sweet $$$ from anime space samurai/ninja minis), but damn, what happened to YJ both fluff/gameplay wise tastes bitter as hell. I own all core books and while I can say that the fluff is not genre-defining, it is still very good. Reading here and elsewhere the plot points of Uprising, though, kinda leaves me baffled at the incompetency displayed by YJ, which should in-setting have built quite a bit of know-how about revolutions/insurgences over the years. It kinda looks very cobra commander-y... and coming from other games where there is also a meta-plot where the "bad guys" are basically Jobbers United, I can definitely say I'm not a happy camper
I think @Shiwen 's point was more that Aleph helping the Uprising would push YJ towards joining CA and that it might be the start of such a narrative rather than anything fan fiction based in that direction. The other explanation supporting Aleph involvement would be if Aleph had knowledge of some upcoming advantage YJ would have against PanO that needed preemptive counterbalancing to avoid YJ dominance.
As someone who is unhappy with the blow to YJ, I'd still appreciate if the rest of us could be civil and stop making incredibly aggressive insults directed at psycoticstorm, the other warcors, or the PanO jerks that are constantly posting stupid memes about how salty we are. It doesn't help, and it certainly isn't a good way to make friends and influence people. As for the steel wall... there are a number of ways it could happen, including orbital to ground AA, long range AA, etc. YJ could have decided they didn't want all of humanity to die over it (which is what would've happened if nukes started flying). In that regard, YJ just took the moral high road, amusingly, and players should look to that and say 'we can make our goal to punish PanO for the transgression' rather than 'YJ is trash holding an idiot ball'. In the Korean war US planes attacked china itself (maybe by accident) and China didn't go full onslaught. It has shown restraint before. I think at this point we've all made our points, we've all ranted and raved, and it probably would be healthy for us all to take a deep breath, remember the people on the other side of the keyboard are our fellow gamers, not evil wicked monsters that hate us and want us to suffer. Embrace some adversity, be the underdog for a season, get out there and win and make PanO pay for it.
It's been explained over and over again, but I'll give it one last shot. Violent institutionalized racism - they already hate and regularly harm the Japanese before the rebellion. Violent authoritarianism - they respond to any challenge to their authority with extreme prejudice. Partisan resistance - the civilian population of rebel territories are host to a terrorist insurgency. Media blackout - the public was never supposed to know, but rebel agents and allies got the truth out. This is just a summary of factors that all add up to genocide. You may think the Imperials should have been more competent in their evil, and no doubt their internal reviews will agree. I'm afraid there are no in-depth reviews of ISS motivations in Uprising, but that might be because they're so plainly obvious. They simply acted the way cruel fascists do. I have no more arguments. I have no more desire to argue. I hope you read the book, and I hope that the future of Yu Jing is much brighter than the present. This is a dark chapter in the game's history, but the book is not creating dark themes where they didn't exist, it's simply exploring them.
I recommend holding off until you’re able to read Uprising in full, rather than relying on secondhand reports from supporters (i.e. me) or detractors.
This thread started with YJ players highlighting that the current portrayal of their faction was one dimensional and missing the shades of grey nuance. Some of the warcors such as Storm pointed out that if you read all of the YJ fiction there are these shades of grey still. Sadly your post above (from another warcor) is exactly the issue we are describing. In fact you are walking straight into these one dimensional simplifications so often that I can't actually decide if you believe them or are going out of your way to prove all the YJ player complaints right?
I think there will be a big debate on the genocide part, from my point of view Yu Jing did not try to ethnically kill the Japanese, on the other hand they did not care about civilians, it is not a "kill the Japanese" it is a "crush the JSA at any cost, civilians expendable".
And the shades of grey still extant n the text are nigh impossible to convey in a forum post. Even in the chaos of the Uprising there is conflict within the YJ High Command on how to handle it. Thise shades of grey you enjoy are there, you’ll simply have to read the book for yourself. Cruelty on the part of the ISS is balanced by the fanaticism of the JSA. And while yes, the actions of the ISS are what you would expect of the secret police of a totalitarian state, their constant appeals to civilians to stand down indicate they are willing to stay their hand if the rebels cease their pointless revolt.
Please note the specific subject of the book focuses on the one dimension where Yu Jing is not just the bad guy, but the worst guy. The narrative *will* move on.
I think you are missing the point I'm making. YJ players: "Our faction is being dumbed down into a one dimensional eeevil villain that fails at everything" Warcor (and often yourself) response: "No there are clearly shades of grey in the fluff" There is some truth in this, there are bits of grey but they are being totally lost to the current wave of "evil incompetence" (bear in mind these views were being expressed before the Uprising fiction was released) to the extent that many people can't see anything beyond that aspect of the fiction. Now go read the quote from @Dude in my post above and tell me with a straight face that it isn't doing exactly that. You can't have one person saying that every YJ player should've expected this as its the obvious result of their evil fascism and someone else say that the faction retains these wonderful shades of grey. The two aren't compatible.
The problem with a grey background is that everybody sees the shades they want to see so two people can focus on other aspects and reach a different conclusion, I can see why the Yu Jing community has created the mythos of evil villain that fails from the past two global campaigns and see the uprising as an affirmation of the fiction they have created for themselves, but this is simply not in the background, one can focus on the strong or the weak points of uprising and shape Yu Jing in the image they want, because the fluff is grey. From my read and understanding of Yu Jing background and the read of Uprising I do not view Yu Jing as evil, "alien" maybe, because they do not hold the same values I do, they are a totalitarian government after all, but their actions make sense, from their point of view, and their shortcomings are indeed based on their pride a national strength and weakness for the state empire. Hence it is important to read the uprising book understand the little details it has and then start discussing it from different viewpoints.
In this narrow scope (the Uprising), YJ (especially ISS) has very little room for nuance. I wish all of you wouldn't conflate failure with incompetence - they lost this round because they were outnumbered by opportunistic foes. As everyone knows, there's more to Yu Jing than just oppressing Japanese. The narrative will no longer focus on this, so you can be hopeful that the flanderization has peaked and the future will be much richer for YJ.
Just as PanO lost in the Ariadna and Svalarheima questions. Those examples of being outmaneuvered show that even the Hyperpower doesn’t always get its own way. The indication that there are ebbs and flows can be seen as a good thing.
The “dumbing down” is something players have created on their own, rather than coming from official sources. We can’t see that in the books, in Outrage, etc. And they most certainly are compatible. There are shades of gray, and those very shades of gray are what have lead to this state. ISS and the YJ system want to bring the Japanese onboard, yet the actions of the Tatenokai and Kempeitai complicated that, and even at the point where the Japanese are in full Uprising, there are still voices crying out against the overreach, continuing the gray of the faction. As @Dude mentioned, failure in a crisis situation does mean incompetence.
