Ahh I actually missed that Sun Tze had 2 x profiles and that Total Immunity was on both. Also my post about 3 x Su Jians and Sun Tze coordinated order was mostly made in jest so don't read too much into it. I am very aware that you are risking the LT, along with spending over 200 points for that tactic.
Oh yeah, my calcs are without Total Immunity. Please mentally lower the risk percents a small amount. ;)
Don't forget that Crane with Spitfire has access to an X-Visor, so that can help with range bands. However, I wouldn't be inclined to design a fireteam to combat it. When considering how to eliminate enemy fireteams, I like to go with templates: shotguns and guided missiles, mainly. The ninja is also useful. It also depends on how good your opponent uses it. Outmanoeuvreing it or flanking it to minimise AROs is always good too. Hell! I've seen people give no thought to how they deployed and moved their fireteam, so I was able to get into a position to shoot it without worrying about AROs at all.
Never rely on your opponent making bad decisions, always assume they're better than you. There's no point in developing strategy if the crux of your plan hinges on your opponent being incompetent, because then you already have free reign to do whatever you want, you've already won.
That's not the crux of the plan but just something to be aware of as you play. Positioning and deployment are incredibly important and not really something that can be planned for in advance. It is something that can be exploited as the game progresses though. It's never about relying on them making bad decisions, but it's about exploiting the bad decisions when they do get made.
Yeah, nasty AROs tend to be set up to lock you down in the first turn though. While you can exploit poor positioning as the game develops you really need some strategy built into your list to unlock your own lanes of attack and do something in your first turn other than "wait for the opponent to move his link somewhere more stupid".
Garuda on the butt killing one or two fireteam fillers raw force (wuming HMG on core or Hsien in haris, Crane on core) raw force Su-jian on enemy +0 range after some cautious movements (start prone in total cover, move 8'' to total cover) speculative (wuming GL on fireteam). You just need a failed Guts roll by the opponent kunai Marksman on enemy +0 range, or the sniper outranging the enemy Coordinated (su-jian, major lunah, any suntze, flashbots, bountyhunter SMG+akrylat,...)
Its a missile launcher (grenzer ML is laugably bad especially when the MSR exists, the ML shouldn't give anyone trouble), get under 24 with pretty much anything and it'll fall over, especially in TAK where there are good options for this, even in ISS you have access to KHD pieces that can cybermask and take it on up close, or a ninja can do it. Now a note on playing TJC specifically, it's defense at 300 begins and ends with the Grenzer MSR, there maybe a TR bot and a flash pulse bot but that's it and they can be trivially taken down. Providing the table doesnt allow for a DZ sniper tower that can see the table (if it does someone fucked up), giving you the ability to just ignore it and pick apart the rest of the army, do that and the list will fold pretty quick.
Getting through the puppets can take some time and depending on what unit you choose to attack with the TJC player will likely have something that can slow you down enough that you can't pick the army apart turn 1; obviously hackers against any HI or TAGs, but Cheerkillers and smoke shouldn't be underestimated, and camo Markers can hide a Jammer. Relying on brute forcing TJC is something I would only attempt with a few flavours of Ariadna and maybe JSA or similar that are purpose built to benefit from smoke and with the unit types to mitigate the worst counter play.
So table construction here is really important, as is getting a handle on the mission and such, but generally speaking your best option is to not deploy where his sniper can see you. A well designed table should give you angles into your opponent's side of the board without forcing you to fight their scariest AROs. As an example; I played against NCA recently where he posted a double Bolt sniper core on top of a tower overlooking half the board. I took one look at it and decided I wasn't going to play to that side. I deployed my Kuang link out of sight and ran up the side of the board he wasn't watching, and because most of his points were sunk into an expensive defensive link he didn't have much that could stop me. He ended up having to reposition his Core to stop the Kuang link from overrunning his DZ, at which point I could start playing on the other side of the board with my Devakini haris. Then the Kuang core tore up his Bolt core because his DZ was much more dense and I was able to get better angles for my chain rifles. Table construction aside, do you have a couple raw firepower options. Authorized Bounty Hunters are really good. They're cheap, Regular, come with glue which is good against everything except dogs and bears. Coordinate them with a Su Panzerfaust or whatever threatening gun you've got and that should usually be enough. The Kunai SMMR was also brought up and I really like it as a contingency. You reveal it and just kinda walk towards his DZ. You have to plan your route so you're not taking multiple AROs at once, but if you do it correctly you'll either force him to Discover and take a free shot, or you walk up the wall and start stabbing. Garuda was also brought up which is a good play as well. Your main strategy, especially as an ISS player, is to be aggressive and force your opponent to react to you. Put pressure on them. Make them feel like they have to stop you. Once you do that you'll start forcing errors and opening up other sections of the table to play on.
Nah, getting around and picking off vulnerable link members is often the right play. That said I know how difficult it can be to get a hackable drop troop into a good position to fight enemy links, but a BSG Garuda is a reasonably low investment for a high reward. Sometimes it might just be better to use it to clear the other side of the board so your link can attempt a flank.
