Aren't you double-dipping there? I thought the other hits wounding had already been accounted for? 14.26% is from 1-(0.95^3) to get the chance of the Fusilier getting one or more Crits, * 0.95 for the Fusilier critting and the Tikbalang not critting.
No, my mistake - they're only accounted for in N3, because the Crit already wounded! Which probably accounts for the 1.5 percentage point difference.
Hurray! Thank you again for helping me check it :-) My secret hope is that @toadchild will be so horrified by the Hideous Dice Calculator that he'll be motivated to make the N4 Actual Dice Calculator sooner :-)
Honestly, this sort of conversation does help get me excited to jump back in and do some math. I’ve got a 4-day weekend starting tomorrow, so I may set aside some time for working on N4 crits instead of playing Crusader Kings 3.
We don't deserve you, but you are the hero we need! I can't tell you how much I have used the dice calculator or how much it has helped me make list choices, or do a post match analysis where I thought something should have gone my way but didn't. Reading that you will be updating it for N4 makes me very happy. THANK YOU!!
Quote to say THANKS because liking the post is not enough. Edit: by all means keep up the nerdy numbers conversations, I always loved math but after getting my engineering degree never really did nothing involving advanced calculus, and this very interesting (like an old guy watching kids play in the lawn and getting warm memories!)
Haven't done any frontend work yet, but I'm working on making the dice engine support N4 crits (which cause an extra save instead of auto-wounding). I think I've got things correct, but I'd like to double-check my math against @QueensGambit. Looks like you were checking a Fusilier vs. a Tikbalang, both models in the 8-16 range band and in cover. Current N3 die roller Spoiler: N3 raw stats P1 STAT 9 CRIT 9 CRIT_1 N BOOST 0 B 3 TEMPLATE 0 AMMO NORMAL DAM[0] 4 TAG[0] NONE P2 STAT 12 CRIT 12 CRIT_1 N BOOST 0 B 1 TEMPLATE 0 AMMO NORMAL DAM[0] 12 TAG[0] NONE Total Rolls: 160000 Actual Rolls Made: 2860 Savings: 98.21% P1 Hits: 0 Crits: 1 - 7.53% (12045) P1 Hits: 0 Crits: 2 - 0.50% (807) P1 Hits: 0 Crits: 3 - 0.01% (19) P1 Hits: 1 Crits: 0 - 24.97% (39948) P1 Hits: 1 Crits: 1 - 4.11% (6576) P1 Hits: 1 Crits: 2 - 0.17% (276) P1 Hits: 2 Crits: 0 - 14.08% (22524) P1 Hits: 2 Crits: 1 - 1.22% (1956) P1 Hits: 3 Crits: 0 - 3.05% (4880) No Hits: 10.82% 17317 P2 Hits: 0 Crits: 1 - 4.29% (6859) P2 Hits: 1 Crits: 0 - 29.25% (46793) ====================================================== P1 Scores 3 Success(es): 0.12% NONE P1 Scores 3 Success(es): 0.12% P1 Scores 2 Success(es): 2.71% NONE P1 Scores 2 Success(es): 2.71% P1 Scores 1 Success(es): 22.27% NONE P1 Scores 1 Success(es): 22.27% P1 Scores 3+ Successes: 0.12% NONE P1 Scores 2+ Successes: 2.83% NONE P1 Scores 1+ Successes: 25.10% NONE P1 Scores 3+ Successes: 0.12% P1 Scores 2+ Successes: 2.83% P1 Scores 1+ Successes: 25.10% No Successes: 53.07% P2 Scores 1 Success(es): 21.83% NONE P2 Scores 1 Success(es): 21.83% P2 Scores 1+ Successes: 21.83% NONE P2 Scores 1+ Successes: 21.83% New code Spoiler: N4 raw stats P1 STAT 9 CRIT 9 CRIT_1 N BOOST 0 B 3 TEMPLATE 0 AMMO NORMAL DAM[0] 4 TAG[0] NONE P2 STAT 12 CRIT 12 CRIT_1 N BOOST 0 B 1 TEMPLATE 0 AMMO NORMAL DAM[0] 12 TAG[0] NONE Total Rolls: 160000 Actual Rolls Made: 2860 Savings: 98.21% P1 Hits: 0 Crits: 1 - 7.53% (12045) P1 Hits: 0 Crits: 2 - 0.50% (807) P1 Hits: 0 Crits: 3 - 0.01% (19) P1 Hits: 1 Crits: 0 - 24.97% (39948) P1 Hits: 1 Crits: 1 - 4.11% (6576) P1 Hits: 1 Crits: 2 - 0.17% (276) P1 Hits: 2 Crits: 0 - 14.08% (22524) P1 Hits: 2 Crits: 1 - 1.22% (1956) P1 Hits: 3 Crits: 0 - 3.05% (4880) No Hits: 10.82% 17317 P2 Hits: 0 Crits: 1 - 4.29% (6859) P2 Hits: 1 Crits: 0 - 29.25% (46793) ====================================================== P1 Scores 3 Success(es): 0.11% NONE P1 Scores 3 Success(es): 0.11% P1 Scores 2 Success(es): 1.86% NONE P1 Scores 2 Success(es): 1.86% P1 Scores 1 Success(es): 15.44% NONE P1 Scores 1 Success(es): 15.44% P1 Scores 6+ Successes: 0.00% NONE P1 Scores 5+ Successes: 0.00% NONE P1 Scores 4+ Successes: 0.00% NONE P1 Scores 3+ Successes: 0.12% NONE P1 Scores 2+ Successes: 1.97% NONE P1 Scores 1+ Successes: 17.41% NONE P1 Scores 6+ Successes: 0.00% P1 Scores 5+ Successes: 0.00% P1 Scores 4+ Successes: 0.00% P1 Scores 3+ Successes: 0.12% P1 Scores 2+ Successes: 1.97% P1 Scores 1+ Successes: 17.41% No Successes: 61.44% P2 Scores 2 Success(es): 1.54% NONE P2 Scores 2 Success(es): 1.54% P2 Scores 1 Success(es): 19.61% NONE P2 Scores 1 Success(es): 19.61% P2 Scores 2+ Successes: 1.54% NONE P2 Scores 1+ Successes: 21.15% NONE P2 Scores 2+ Successes: 1.54% P2 Scores 1+ Successes: 21.15%
Yup, mine just takes the dice targets as input, so for: Active unit Reactive unit B 3 1 To-hit 9 12 DAM 13 16 ARM 4 9 Here are my results: Odds of active unit inflicting n ARM saves: 1: 24.97% 2: 21.61% 3: 7.16% 4: 1.73% 5: 0.17% 6: 0.01% Odds of reactive unit inflicting n ARM saves: 1: 29.25% 2: 4.29% Active unit inflicts 3+ wounds: 0.12% Active unit inflicts 2+ wounds: 1.97% Active unit inflicts 1+ wounds: 17.41% No wounds: 61.44% Reactive unit inflicts 1+ wounds: 21.15% Reactive unit inflicts 2+ wounds: 1.54% My output doesn't count hits and crits separately, it just counts a crit as two armour saves. So where you get 24.97% for Angus to score 1 hit and 0 crits, I get 24.97% for him to inflict 1 armour save. Where I get 21.61% for him to inflict 2 saves, you get 14.08%% for him to score 2 hits, plus 7.53% for him to score 1 crit, equals 21.61% for him to cause 2 saves. 29.25% to hit and 4.29% to crit for the Tik are also checking out. For wounds inflicted - we both get 61.44% for no wounds, 17.41% for Angus to inflict 1+, 21.15% for the Tik to score 1+... It looks like we're all checking out! I haven't added up all the possible combinations (e.g. Angus inflicts 3 arm saves if he scores 3 hits, or 1 hit and 1 crit, etc.) but you should be able to check as many of them as you want with the above. Feel free to send me any other tests you want (but only with normal ammo, I hadn't yet implemented other ammo types and now that you're working on the Actual Dice Calculator, I probably won't have to :-)
Nice, glad things check out. Mine should now work for the basic ammo types (N, DA, EXP, etc). Continuous will be extra work since the crit is resolved as a non-continuous.
Seeing as how worked up everyone is getting over the new Azra’il and the continuous damage effect, I’ll try to spend some time over thanksgiving weekend finishing up the new math and get something posted for people to start playing with. I won’t have full N4 unit data set up, so it will be a somewhat manual process, but it will at least give people solid numbers to argue about.
If you need help with manual unit data entry, I could help there. Although some kind of API from CB would be nice and kinda 2020. ;-)
I want to clarify, because comments like these have come up a few times in the past, especially regarding Mayanet (which is discontinued, and there's no chance of it coming back). First of all, I did reach out to CB when I started working on these projects, as I'm using their game resources (rules, stats, names, art, etc). They said it was ok to use them for Infinity-related apps and tools, but that I could not commercialize them or use them to make money. While accepting donations via some sort of "tip jar" doesn't violate that per se, I want to be very careful about respecting their IP, and I don't want to get into a situation where they have reason to think I'm using their copyrighted materials for personal profit. To my eye, a Patreon is more suspect from that angle, since it implies recurring payments - a subscription to my work, essentially. Secondly, money is not the limiting factor in me working on the project, and more money would not enable me to work on it more. While I frequently worry that I risk de-valuing fan labor by consistently refusing to accept compensation, I'm fairly uncomfortable accepting money for these sorts of projects. Not just for the reasons above, but also because of how it affects my own relationship with the community and the product. I already have a job, and it pays me well enough that I'm able to support my family. I know not everyone is so fortunate, and I don't begrudge those who want to use their skills to support themselves through non-traditional work. However, what I don't want is a second job. If I accept money in exchange for completing tasks or achieve milestones, that's what I have. This year has been very stressful for me, both personally and professionally. I like Infinity and I like making these sorts of tools, but I need to keep things at a level where it's a fun distraction, not a chore or an obligation. I do want to keep on working on this, but I'm afraid it's going to be slow and haphazard for a while. Please bear with me, and have faith that in time my love for the game (and for math) will win out.
I have what I believe is correct math for fire / continuous ammo. The fact that crits are an extra non-continuous save was definitely the most annoying part to deal with. I've also got a number of assumptions baked into the code, such as not being able to mix continuous damage with ammunition that forces multiple saves per hit. That's not an impossible problem to solve, but such a weapon does not currently exist, and it would be extra headache on my part. Next up I'll try to put together a bare-bones N4 web app, hopefully some time over the weekend.
