The updated version of Adhesive Ammunition. https://infinitythewiki.com/index.php?title=Paralysis_(PARA)_Ammunition
How is the data in that bitbucket repo optained? Do you get it from CB in some automated way or is it maintained by hand? I'm not sure if I can help much on the Perl/C part of the project, but I can certainly help typing in unit profiles or lists of hacking devices, weapons and so on. (But I really hope there is some kind of API to get the unit profiles data from army)
The current version uses the same data as MayaNet, which is JSON that I was copying by hand from official release sources. There are instructions in the dice repository for how to set that up. For N4, I plan to rewrite the data importer to be able to load directly from Army.
I'm totally down this rabbit hole and am making a monstrous hacked-together N4 dice calculator to get me through until @toadchild does it properly. I have the first part done, without any of @toadchild 's math skills it uses pure brute force, which means that to do a F2F with the highest possible burst (5 active B, 4 reactive B) it has to crunch 512 billion rolls. But for more reasonable F2Fs (e.g. 3 B to 1) the brute-force method seems to be working fine. For @toadchild or anyone else who maths: if a unit takes n armour saves, and each save has p probability of failure, is there a formula for calculating the probability that the unit will fail at least x saves? (My math is good enough to calculate it for x=0 and x=1, but after that I'm lost).
It's a binomial distribution. Can't give you the TLDR of how to solve it, I haven't used those since university and that was 15 years ago, but should be a good start to google for it. Basically, sum of (p^x)*((p^(x-n))) for n=n+1 until n=x should do it I think
I stumbled across a test page shortly after the C1 wiki launched that had a toggle at the top of the page to switch between C1 and N4.
That’s broadly how mine works; I just use a few tricks to recognize patterns and cut down on repeated evaluation of identical rolls (rolling 1,2 is the same as rolling 2, 1).
Heh, your "just a few tricks" cut down on the rolls you need to crunch by 99.78% according to your stats readout, which is pretty good math as far as I'm concerned :-) In contrast, my test of brute-forcing 5B vs. 4B has been running for 1.5 hours so far...
Source code is there if you want to look at it and I attempted to describe my optimizations from a higher lever perspective here: http://ghostlords.com/2014/06/infinity-dice-rolling-engine/
Hideous N4 Interim Dice Calculator v.1 is complete! It runs pretty well for matchups up to 5 dice. 6 dice takes 5 minutes or so to process on my computer. 7 dice and up, forget it. I did a couple of tests for fun: Impact of crit change on high ARM: in N3, the fusilier Angus shoot at a Tikbalang in cover has a 25.1% chance to wound. In N4, that goes down to 17.4%. Impact of crit change on NWI light infantry: in N3, a Mukhtar murdering a helpless Ikadron has a 4.3% chance to suffer a wound. In N4, it's 2.9% to take a wound and 0.7% to take two wounds. That's not as bad as I expected - I thought the crit change would be worse for units like the Mukhtar who use their NWI primarily as a way to survive an unlucky crit.
You might need to check your code for N4 Crits, it looks like the chance of wounding the Tikbalang is a percent or so too high. A single N4 Crit with Damage 13 vs ARM9 gives about 36% chance of causing 1+ wounds, and Crits made up nearly 14 percentage points of the N3 chance to wound in that situation.
Also, for the Mukhtar that looks like a Red Fury vs Pistol at 8-16” in Cover, in which case your N4 result is way off as most of the chance to wound the Mukhtar is from non-Crits! From Toadchild’s calculator: P2 Hits: 0 Crits: 1 - 4.07% (130321) P2 Hits: 1 Crits: 0 - 0.72% (23058) The good news is that a D11 Crit vs ARM4 is only 12% chance of 2W, so times the 0.72% chance of a Crit gives a tiny 0.9% chance of the Mukhtar suffering 2W.
@ijw I appreciate the troubleshooting help! For the Mukhar-Ikadron, I forgot a pistol is only DAM 11. Now I'm getting 2.6% to suffer 1 wound, and 0.5% to suffer two wounds. But I think you misread @toadchild's output? It says "Hits: 0 Crits: 1" has a 4.07% chance, and "Hits: 1 Crits: 0" has a 0.72% chance. I just checked, and those are the numbers mine is producing as well: 0.72% chance of the Ikadron hitting without critting, and 4.07% chance of the Ikadron critting. That's also about what you'd expect: the Ikadron has a 5% chance of rolling a crit, minus the odds that the Mukhtar also crits leaves just under 5% to crit. At 4.07% to crit, and 12% that the crit will cause two wounds, that's 0.49% overall to inflict two wounds. The Hideous Dice Calculator produced 0.50%, which seems right? The 0.01% discrepancy probably comes from rounding. Does that look right? I'm gonna look at the Angus/Tik fight in a sec.
For Angus/Tik: I'm getting 24.97% for Angus to score one hit, no crits - correct per Toadchild's output. 21.61% to score either two hits, or one crit (both will cause 2 saves so the HDC groups them together.) Also correct per Toadchild (7.53% + 14.08%) So it looks like I'm correctly counting the odds of inflicting x number of armor saves. Here's the complete data: Odds of active unit inflicting n ARM saves: 1: 24.97% 2: 21.61% 3: 7.16% 4: 1.73% 5: 0.17% 6: 0.01% From there I use a binomial formula to calculate the odds that n saves will cause x wounds, multiplied by the above odds of taking n saves, and sum the results to get the overall odds of causing x wounds. So it accords with Toadchild's results to the extent that I was able to check it, but there's a lot that I couldn't check. I'm not sure I followed your reasoning on the Angus/Tik fight, @ijw , could you explain further?
Doh, yes I did. Sorry. Sure. This probably comes across as a weird way to work it out, but... N3, there's a 25.1% chance to wound. 14.26 percentage points of that come from N3 Crits (the odds of the Fusilier getting a Crit and the Tikbalang not getting a Crit). That leaves a 'fixed' 10.84 percentage points that's unaffected by changes to Crits, only the 14.26 percentage points change. With an N4 Crit, D13 vs ARM9 gives 36% chance of causing 1+ damage. So 14.26% chance of auto-wounding via a Crit becomes 36% * 14.26% = 5.13% chance of causing 1+ damage in N4. Add that back to the fixed non-Crit part and you've got 15.96% chance to damage the Tikbalang. It's quite possible that I've made an error in the percentage points that come from non-Crits and from N3 Crits*, but the N4 Crits should be causing damage 36% of the time compared to N3. *Thirty years since Pure Maths and Applied Maths is starting to show... :-(
Ok, I think I follow you! I'm getting slightly different numbers, though. From toadchild, the odds of Angus scoring at least one crit (with or without additional hits) is 7.53% + 0.50% + 0.01% + 4.11% + 0.17% + 1.22% = 13.54% (not 14.26%). Any of those results causes an automatic 1+ wounds in N3. The total odds of 1+ wounds in N3 is 25.1%. So 11.56% of that comes from rolls that don't include any crits. That 11.56% will be unchanged in N4. For the rolls that do include crits, in N4 the crits will only wound 36% of the time. 36% of 13.54% is 4.87%. There will also be a small percentage of wounds caused by non-crit hits (for example, in a roll with one crit and one hit, the crit will wound 36% of the time, but when it doesn't wound, the other hit will still occasionally wound). So the total odds to wound in N4 should be 11.56% + 4.87% + some small amount for non-crit wounds in the same roll as non-wounding crits. So 16.43% plus a bit. That seems consistent with my 17.41% result. But I could be missing something, especially since our starting numbers are different. How did you calculate 14.26%?
