Targetted is effectively a +9 shift, since you get +3 for targetted state, and ignore the -6 for speculative fire. I don't think +1 B is going to be as good.
Right, but @Icchan was talking about spending two orders on speculative fire, which is the equivalent of +1 B, over Forward Observation for order 1, followed by Speculative Fire for order 2.
Has anyone done the math on it? Emily in a full link is typically spec firing on 10s through the mid-field or 7s into the deployment zone. Most spec fire targets (remotes, line infantry lieutenants) are probably dodging on 8s. You'll probably also shoot a TAG with E/M dodging on 10ish. What are the odds of just putting in 2 orders to spec fire versus 1 order on a targeted model? If it's within 10-15 percent I'd probably bank on just the spec fire to avoid issues getting the FO model into position and/or eating a bullet to the face.
Without running the numbers, a single roll each side with roughly similar target numbers would be close to even. Edit: Provided the Targeted and Fireteam bonuses stack that would put her at +9 to hit effectively. +6 otherwise. At the furthest range that puts her at 41.05% to wound a Dakini, 44.45% null, 14.50% Dakini wins. Far better than 17.54%/ 54.46%/ 28% just straight shooting at long range
Potentially you could get lucky and get a hit on your first try, then you wouldn't have to spend a second order. FO'ing someone isn't as easy as it was in 2nd edition, especially if the target is in a 5 man link team. All of the bonuses they get could mean they're hitting better than you are. For example a Zero FO from marker state tries to FO a Fusilier, both in effective range. Zero gets -3 from cover, no range bonuses, rolling two dice for 10's. Fusilier gets -3 for cover, -3 for camo, +3 for range, +3 for 5 man link bonus, no penalty from surprise shot, rolling two dice for 12's. In that situation, I'd just spend the two orders spamming them with grenades. You have a low chance to succeed per target, but you get two tries with two orders, potentially hitting multiple targets with every try. Even a single failed save starts to have an impact on the link team.
My issue with the xvisored Fireteam GL is exactly this. The spec fire short odds is negated by the fact you don't need to move to cover the entire board. So have more orders to try it. It will land eventually.
Against everyone's favourite ARO piece; 5-man Kamau Multi Sniper: Active Player 13.38% Emily Handelman, Intel Agent hits Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) (Disabled) Failures 39.62% Neither player succeeds Reactive Player 47.00% Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) Dodges Emily Handelman, Intel Agent And then we manage to put the Kamau (or more likely, a Fusilier or something close to the Kamau) into Targeted. Active Player 33.50% Emily Handelman, Intel Agent hits Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) (Disabled) Failures 40.50% Neither player succeeds Reactive Player 26.00% Kamau Amphibious Intervention Teams (MSV 2) Dodges Emily Handelman, Intel Agent So it all depends on how many orders you need to spend on the Forward Observer, if it's only 1 single order (lucky you). Foot note: it's very annoying how Emily's own entry in Starco doesn't include her Special Core Fireteam options in Army.
Interesting, thanks for the probability calculations. It seems that if you want to FO first, you're in it for 5-6 orders (2-3 to FO, 3 with spec fire). If you don't want to FO, then on average you need 7 orders to reliably kill the guy... However, I suspect I would probably still prefer the poor odds approach. It's nice to just throw 2 orders at a thing. It won't probably won't work but it's low commitment (as opposed to have to commit 2-3 orders to FO before you even make the shot) and sometimes you get lucky.
It's a bit more complex than just looking at chances. And I mean, besides looking at how many you can fit under the template and if the Engineer (or Engineer's Servant) is one of them. A failed shot will allow a significant portion of enemies to spread out, making successive shots worse. The same goes for Guts Rolls on successful saving throws, however, here your opponent needs to get out of the template and won't have as much control over positions - you can... nudge... this to your advantage by potentially forcing units out of Fireteam coherency, but that's still a lot of orders (hidden in the numbers for Emily without FO is a 17% non-crit hit chance.). On the other hand, Forward Observing typically opens one of your models up for a retaliatory shot and it'll only stick the status on one single model, and once that one is too far out of position - there goes your bonus.
I've stopped taking the Druze LGL because when I try to use it, I usually just waste a bunch of orders missing and/or having my opponent dodge such that I'm not able to hit multiple models.
Druze LGL is an opportunity weapon/zone deterrent. Hammer your opponents with the mimetism multisniper and msv2 multisniper. Make them come to you, and the. Punish them for that with the lgl.
QQ: why go with spec firing grenades? If you have the ability to FO so easy why not take the 18 point smart missile and rain down explosive ammo?
LGL is 1 SWC, Smart Missile is 1.5 SWC. That's enough of a reason for some. But as a Nomad player, I almost always pick one in my lists.
The Vertigo as an "well if I don't have any other good options" piece / DZ or flank ARO piece is solid. Particularly in a list that is taking Pi-well and/or FO Zeroes. You don't use it as a guided option most games, but when you do it's great.
